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Factoid

Late-round running backs

Year 2 more promising than Year 1

Yesterday's article about Israel Abanikanda got me thinking about running backs drafted in the later rounds, say 4th through 7th. How likely is it that those players wind up making a rookie impact, and how much better do their prospects look in their second seasons?

Reasonably, the more talented players are selected earlier, but there's more to it than that. Earlier picks get more opportunities, either because they earn them, or because teams choose to fast-track those players into the starting lineup. Later-round picks are going to start out behind ones selected earlier, and are more often fighting just to make it onto the 53-man roster, and earn special teams snaps -- never mind a starting job.

Since 2000, there have been 357 running backs selected in rounds 4-7, so about 15 per season. A significant rookie impact -- I went with a top-30 season at the position in PPR league -- from those players is pretty rare. And because it's rare, we know all the names, guys like Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy and Mike Anderson. And the later the round, the less likely those guys are going to do anything.

Since 2000, exactly 17 running backs selected in rounds 4-7 have finished with top-30 numbers as rookies. And 10 of those players were fourth-rounders (so from this year, that would be Bears' rookie Roschon Johnson, pictured). Just seven from the fifth round on in the last 23 years.

Note, however, that four of those top-30 backs (two fourth-rounders, a fifth and a sixth) were from the last two years: Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier. So maybe the tide is turning a little bit.

ROOKIE RBS POSTING TOP-30 NUMBERS, 2000-PRESENT (RDS 4-7)
RdYearPlayerAttRunNoRecTDPPRRk
62012Alfred Morris, Was.3351613117713258.07
52016Jordan Howard, Chi.2521313292987232.110
62000Mike Anderson, Den.29714872316915280.611
42003Domanick Williams, Hou.2381031473518233.214
52013Zac Stacy, St.L.250973261418185.421
42022Dameon Pierce, Hou.220939301655170.425
42011Roy Helu, Was.151640493793168.925
62013Andre Ellington, Ariz.118652393714165.326
62021Elijah Mitchell, S.F.207963191376165.026
42014Andre Williams, NYG217721181307145.127
42018Nyheim Hines, Ind.85314634254160.928
42017Tarik Cohen, Chi.87370533534154.428
42016Devontae Booker, Den.174612312655148.729
42015Javorius Allen, Balt.137514453533149.729
42021Michael Carter, NYJ147639363254156.429
42015Jeremy Langford, Chi.148537222797147.630
52022Tyler Allgeier, Atl.2101035161394159.430

The good news for those of us scooping these players up in dynasty leagues is that things get better in year 2. For this table, I also included the undrafted guys who fought their way onto rosters as rookies -- Arian Foster, C.J. Anderson.

Since 2000, there have been 34 running backs drafted from the fourth round on (or undrafted) who finished with top-30 numbers in year 2. So more patience is required, but on average about 1-2 of those lightly regarded players will hit by their second seasons.

RBS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS IN YEAR 2, 2000-PRESENTED (RDS 4-7 OR UFA)
RdYearPlayerAttRunNoRecTDPPRRk
42015Devonta Freeman, Atl.26510567357814320.41
FA2010Arian Foster, Hou.32716166660418396.01
42004Domanick Williams, Hou.30211886858814329.63
42022Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.2101040694216251.18
42018Tarik Cohen, Chi.99444717258240.011
52016Jay Ajayi, Mia.2601272271518217.311
FA2014C.J. Anderson, Den.1798493432410211.311
52009Tim Hightower, Ariz.143598634288213.614
52017Jordan Howard, Chi.2761122231259201.715
72018Chris Carson, Sea.2471151201639205.415
FA2005Willie Parker, Pitt.2551202182185190.018
42006Marion Barber, Dall.1356542319616204.019
52017Alex Collins, Balt.212973231876175.019
62014Andre Ellington, Ariz.201660463955181.519
FA2008Pierre Thomas, N.O.1296253128412193.919
42018Marlon Mack, Ind.1959081710310182.120
62013Alfred Morris, Was.27612759787186.320
FA2019Phillip Lindsay, Den.2241011351967197.720
42003Rudi Johnson, Cin.215957211469185.321
FA2002Marcel Shipp, Ariz.188834384139216.722
42008LeRon McClain, Balt.2329021912311187.523
FA2012Joique Bell, Det.82414524853159.923
52018Aaron Jones, G.B.133728262069173.424
FA2001Jamel White, Cle.126443444186168.124
FA2021James Robinson, Jac.164767312228177.924
72020Myles Gaskin, Mia.142584413885168.225
FA2018Austin Ekeler, LAC106554394046170.825
FA2010Danny Woodhead, 2TM97547343796162.625
FA2001Maurice Smith, Atl.237760192306154.025
42005Mewelde Moore, Min.155662373394161.126
FA2018Matt Breida, S.F.153814272615164.526
72009Justin Forsett, Sea.114619413505167.928
52012Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl.94362534022141.429
42004Onterrio Smith, Min.124544363944155.830

Maybe the most notable thing from the second table is that you're only slightly less likely to hit as an undrafted player (13) than one selected in the fourth through seventh rounds (21). There were only four undrafted rookies to put up top 30 production (James Robinson was the best, and also Phillip Lindsay, Dominic Rhodes and Branden Oliver).

Bottom line, if you're selecting one of these rookies -- especially ones drafted after the fourth round -- it should be in a keeper or dynasty format. A rookie impact is pretty rare. Year 2 is a little more promising.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index