Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Can Bijan Robinson be an elite back right away? The best third-down backs. Weighing Darnell Mooney against the rookies. Michael Pittman's low draft grade. And more.
Question 1
Admittedly, I haven’t done any heavy duty research yet. But I’m seeing Bijan Robinson as a top 10 pick in early mock drafts. Really? I’m fine with rolling the dice with rookies, but the Falcons don’t figure to have a potent enough offense to warrant spending a first-round pick on Robinson. Isn’t that awfully risky? If you’re going to draft a rookie in the first round, shouldn’t he be a key piece on a Super Bowl contender?
Paul Owers (Boynton Beach, FL)
I’m not a Bijan fan. Where I’m seeing him going, I’m confident he won’t be on any of my teams. He was the third running back selected in the mock draft in our magazine; in the mock auction, his salary tied for 3rd-highest at the position. In the Experts Poll, he came in at No. 5. To me, that kind of valuing looks crazy. I didn’t understand why the Falcons selected him with the eighth pick of the draft. Breece Hall put up similar rushing numbers in college and ran faster at the combine (at about the same size). Hall last until early in the second round. Robinson is more of a weapon in the passing game, but I thought he would have been selected late in the first or early in the second round. I was not overly impressed by Robinson’s work as a runner in college. He averaged under 3 yards per carry against both Alabama and TCU (especially against the Crimson Tide, I saw some 1-v-1 situations where I expected more). He’s fine, but I didn’t see him as a transcendent talent worthy of selection long before where running backs tend to go nowadays.
Question 2
Was offered picks 2.11 & 3.03 in a rookie draft for Darnell Mooney & 4.11. 12-team full PPR dynasty league. My concerns with Chicago passing game make this an easy accept, right?
Scott Anderson (Las Vegas, NV)
Mooney is currently WR No. 51 on my dynasty receiver list. For my 2023-only PPR list, he’s wide receiver No. 60. If you’re a Mooney pessimist, maybe you drop him as low at 65th. That’s nothing special, but you’ll be hard pressed to find something better after over 20 rookies have been selected. Choices 2.11 and 3.03, those are picks 23 and 27, correct? Andy Richardson posted the results of his dynasty draft back in May. Picks 23 through 36 in that draft included Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Luke Schoonmaker, Tank Bigsby, Israel Abinkanda, Josh Downs, Will Levis, Darnell Washington, Zach Evans, Cedric Tillman, Eric Gray, Michael Wilson and Tank Dell. Mooney caught 81 passes two years ago; I think I’d take him before all of those guys. If you make the trade, one of those picks would probably be on a backup running back who might somebody gets some starts – Abinkanda, Bigsby, Gray. Maybe Schoonmaker becomes the starting tight end in Dallas. Maybe you land a second-round receiver who eventually develops into some – Marvin Mims, Jayden Reed. That would be the trade. I think I’d be inclined to hold onto Mooney.
Question 3
For PPR league who do your see as top 10 third-down backs (a la James White)?
Robert McKinlay (Belews Creek, NC)
There aren’t 10 who’ll be drafted in fantasy leagues, as far as I can see. Jerick McKinnon looks like the clear top guy. In his final 12 games last year (including the playoffs) he caught 48 passes for 428 yards and 8 TDs. But after him, it falls off pretty quickly. If we squint, we might be able to pass off Antonio Gibson as a third-down back; he’s a better pass catcher than Brian Robinson, and Washington doesn’t have J.D. McKissic coming back. But I consider Gibson to be more of a change-of-pace than a classic third-down back. I have some interest in Kenneth Gainwell. He played more than Miles Sanders in the postseason last year, and I think the Eagles will start passing more (with Jalen Hurts developing as a passer). Gainwell caught 4 passes in the Super Bowl; I like him more than Philadelphia’s other running backs. Ty Montgomery might be next in line. I think he was going to be New England’s third-down back last year (he caught 3 passes and a touchdown in their opener last year but suffered an injury in that game, missing the rest of the season). The Patriots have historically used third-down backs – Faulk, Woodhead, Vereen, White. But Montgomery is 30 and hasn’t played all that much the last four years; I can’t say for sure that he’ll even be on New England’s roster. The Patriots might instead opt for Pierre Strong, who’ll probably be either their backup tailback, their third-down back or fill both of those roles. After the Patriots, I think we’re down to guys like JaMycal Hasty, Ameer Abdullah, DeeJay Dallas, Kyren Robinson and Travis Homer. It’s not a great period in time for third-down backs right now.
Question 4
As always, pleased to receive and inhale the first hours of the magazine. Only one player seems out of whack for his showings and recognized talent: Michael Pittman. I know eventually someone has to be the 38th mentioned WR, but behind past-peak guys like Cooks and Godwin, rusty guys like Ridley, uncertain QB guys like Hollywood, Evans and Deebo and a few paces ahead of suspended guys, like Williams or the bulk of a flat-buzz rookie group. It doesn't add up. He may not be more than a solid WR2, but at the top fringes of WR4 seems like a lead weight. If they do turn to rookie Richardson behind center, Youngling HC Stechen got WR performance out of an unpolished runner like Hurts, now has a better offensive line and Minshew would seem to be a slight upgrade over Ryan at this point. Plus who else is getting WR looks there?
Vin Kmetz (Danbury, CT)
Pittman is the clear No. 1 receiver there. I’ll grant you that. But if they’re starting Richardson at quarterback, I expect they’ll have about the worst passing offense in the league. If we’re comparing Richardson to Hurts, it would be fairer to look at 2021 Hurts rather than last year’s model. After Steichen took over the play calling in that first season, Hurts in his final 12 games averaged 186 passing yards, with 10 TDs. With Richardson’s unusually size and speed, I think they’ll be looking to use him in that kind of way this year. Think of Justin Fields last year (he averaged 150 passing yards, with 17 TDs in 15 games). For those who select Pittman, I think they’ll quietly be hoping that Gardner Minshew starts most of the season.
Question 5
I was fortunate enough to not only win my league last year, but scored the #1 pick. Is McCaffery a lock? Or do you think he will have competition by draft time?
Patrick LaMendola (Penfield, NY)
Running back is a troublesome position. There aren’t many reliable options at that position. With that in mind, it would be nice to go with McCaffrey, getting you out of potentially having to use a second- or third-round pick on a running back you’re not all that excited about. But there are other players in the conversation, I think, the two LSU receivers (Jefferson, Chase) look awfully strong. And Kelce will be a lot better than all of the other tight ends. (If we’re getting into Superflex leagues, then the quarterbacks enter the discussion.)