Justin Jefferson is on the cover of the 2023 version of our magazine. Hurray? If history is any indication, that’s probably not a good thing.
Some are of the school of thought that there’s a Fantasy Index cover jinx. None of the players we’ve put on the cover in this century have gone on to finish as the highest-scoring player at their position. Only nine of those 23 have even finished as the No. 1 guy at their own position.
It’s a tradition that dates all the way back to our first issue. Dan Marino threw 44 touchdowns in 1986. In the following season (which was shortened by a strike) he dipped down to only 26 in 12 games.
For most of the ‘90s, we went with regional covers (with different players appearing in different markets). We returned to a one-cover format with Randy Moss in 1999, and since that time, the tendency has been for the players featured on the cover to decline, and usually by a bunch.
Totaling up the damage, the last 24 cover subjects have played in 79 fewer games, with 19,606 fewer yards and 248 fewer touchdowns. Breaking it down, the declines include 10,486 passing yards, 131 TD passes, 6,209 rushing yards, 193 receptions, 2,911 receiving yards and 117 fewer touchdowns.
Using PPR scoring, no FFI cover player has led his position in scoring since Emmitt Smith and Jerry Rice in the mid-‘90s. Those guys both strong together four-year strings leading their positions in scoring during the ‘90s, and both were on multiple regional covers at that time. Rice would be the only true such player; he was our only cover player in 1989, and he was the most productive wide receiver that year.
It hasn’t happened recently.
COVER PLAYERS (rank at position) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Cover | Bef | After |
1999 | Randy Moss, Min. | 2nd | 3rd |
2000 | Kurt Warner, St.L. | 1st | 13th |
2001 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 1st | 15th |
2002 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 2nd | 3rd |
2003 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 3rd | 9th |
2004 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 1st | 18th |
2005 | Tatum Bell, Den. | 63rd | 24th |
2006 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1st | 33rd |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1st | 2nd |
2008 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 1st | 61st |
2009 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 2nd | 5th |
2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1st | 6th |
2011 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1st | 3rd |
2012 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 1st | 5th |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1st | 10th |
2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 1st | 3rd |
2015 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 1st | 27th |
2016 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 49th | 3rd |
2017 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 2nd | 12th |
2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1st | 3rd |
2019 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 2nd | 11th |
2020 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1st | 54th |
2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 4th | 4th |
2022 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1st | 33rd |
2023 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 1st | ? |
—Ian Allan