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Brock Purdy

49ers optimistic Purdy will be ready for Week 1

If a report coming out of the San Francisco area is to be believed, Brock Purdy will probably be starting for the 49ers in Week 1. That could be enough to get him in the conversation to be selected as a second quarterback in typical leagues.

Purdy is undersized and doesn’t run much, but he was impressive as a rookie, operating Kyle Shanahan’s offense with the poise and smarts of a veteran. In his seven full games he averaged 235 passing yards (about average last season), but with 14 TD passes, 2 TD runs and only 2 interceptions in those games. Those are starter-caliber numbers in typical fantasy leagues.

Purdy (with the help of Haason Reddick) tore an elbow ligament in the NFC Championship, but Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area says Purdy is on track to start the season opener, having experienced no setbacks in his rehab.

It’s early in the grand scheme of things. Let’s see how much Purdy is able to practice at camp. Particularly with him being a young quarterback, reps in August are important. But if Purdy can get back to being anything close to what he was last year, he’ll be at least a decent second quarterback in typical leagues.

In the 32-team era, only 18 other rookie quarterbacks have started at least five games and averaged 20 points (using traditional scoring). In the chart below, the stats show how the players performed when they were starting in their rookie year. The final column shows how they ranked against other quarterbacks in that season who started at least half the time.

Note that three of the most unheralded quarterbacks on this list have all been guys coached by Shanahan in San Francisco – Purdy, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. (Robert Griffin also played for Shanahan, in 2012).

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING 20 POINTS PER GAME
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.62663.0042.3332.2--
2011Cam Newton, Car.162531.3144.8827.84
2020Justin Herbert, LAC152892.0716.3326.57
2012Robert Griffin, Was.152131.3354.4724.25
2019Daniel Jones, NYG122512.0023.1724.28
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.132712.0810.0023.011
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.162731.4416.3122.910
2018Josh Allen, Buff.11182.9155.7322.813
2018Lamar Jackson, Balt.7161.7179.5722.3--
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.122351.5821.2522.216
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.162331.2534.2521.913
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.102691.3014.3021.915
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.162531.3813.3821.817
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.162291.4418.3821.217
2022Brock Purdy, S.F.52202.202.2021.2--
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.122371.5028.0021.018
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.161951.6331.2520.812
2018• Nick Mullens, S.F.82851.63-2.0020.820
2017• C.J. Beathard, S.F.5237.6024.6020.3--

The staying power of quarterbacks who’ve played well as rookies has been good. Of the 18 other quarterbacks who’ve averaged 20-plus points, all but three came back and did it again the next season.

It’s a little flimsy, admittedly, lumping in Purdy with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and others. But it’s looking like it might be reasonable in August drafts to compare Purdy against second quarterback options like Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, Jimmy Garoppolo and the rookies.

ROOKIE QB AVERAGING 20 POINTS (the next year)
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.152082.4080.4730.91
2020Kyler Murray, Ariz.162481.6351.6928.23
2021Justin Herbert, LAC172952.2418.1826.62
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.162601.6334.3124.86
2012Cam Newton, Car.162421.1946.5024.54
2021Joe Burrow, Cin.162882.137.1324.48
2020Gardner Minshew, Jac.82601.8816.1323.112
2013Andrew Luck, Ind.162391.4424.2522.19
2019Josh Allen, Buff.161931.2532.5621.614
2016Jameis Winston, T.B.162561.7510.0621.612
2018• C.J. Beathard, S.F.52501.6014.2021.5--
2016Marcus Mariota, Ten.152281.7323.1321.514
2013Robert Griffin, Was.132461.2338.0021.311
2013Russell Wilson, Sea.162101.6334.0620.714
2017Dak Prescott, Dall.162081.3822.3820.412
2019Baker Mayfield, Cle.162391.389.1919.625
2020Daniel Jones, NYG14210.7930.0717.230
2019• Nick Mullens, S.F.00.000.00.0--
2023Brock Purdy, S.F.???????

—Ian Allan

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