If a report coming out of the San Francisco area is to be believed, Brock Purdy will probably be starting for the 49ers in Week 1. That could be enough to get him in the conversation to be selected as a second quarterback in typical leagues.
Purdy is undersized and doesn’t run much, but he was impressive as a rookie, operating Kyle Shanahan’s offense with the poise and smarts of a veteran. In his seven full games he averaged 235 passing yards (about average last season), but with 14 TD passes, 2 TD runs and only 2 interceptions in those games. Those are starter-caliber numbers in typical fantasy leagues.
Purdy (with the help of Haason Reddick) tore an elbow ligament in the NFC Championship, but Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area says Purdy is on track to start the season opener, having experienced no setbacks in his rehab.
It’s early in the grand scheme of things. Let’s see how much Purdy is able to practice at camp. Particularly with him being a young quarterback, reps in August are important. But if Purdy can get back to being anything close to what he was last year, he’ll be at least a decent second quarterback in typical leagues.
In the 32-team era, only 18 other rookie quarterbacks have started at least five games and averaged 20 points (using traditional scoring). In the chart below, the stats show how the players performed when they were starting in their rookie year. The final column shows how they ranked against other quarterbacks in that season who started at least half the time.
Note that three of the most unheralded quarterbacks on this list have all been guys coached by Shanahan in San Francisco – Purdy, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. (Robert Griffin also played for Shanahan, in 2012).
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING 20 POINTS PER GAME | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 266 | 3.00 | 42 | .33 | 32.2 | -- |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 1.31 | 44 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 289 | 2.07 | 16 | .33 | 26.5 | 7 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 213 | 1.33 | 54 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 251 | 2.00 | 23 | .17 | 24.2 | 8 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 13 | 271 | 2.08 | 10 | .00 | 23.0 | 11 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273 | 1.44 | 16 | .31 | 22.9 | 10 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 182 | .91 | 55 | .73 | 22.8 | 13 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 7 | 161 | .71 | 79 | .57 | 22.3 | -- |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 235 | 1.58 | 21 | .25 | 22.2 | 16 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 233 | 1.25 | 34 | .25 | 21.9 | 13 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 269 | 1.30 | 14 | .30 | 21.9 | 15 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 253 | 1.38 | 13 | .38 | 21.8 | 17 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 229 | 1.44 | 18 | .38 | 21.2 | 17 |
| 2022 | Brock Purdy, S.F. | 5 | 220 | 2.20 | 2 | .20 | 21.2 | -- |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 237 | 1.50 | 28 | .00 | 21.0 | 18 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 195 | 1.63 | 31 | .25 | 20.8 | 12 |
| 2018 | • Nick Mullens, S.F. | 8 | 285 | 1.63 | -2 | .00 | 20.8 | 20 |
| 2017 | • C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 5 | 237 | .60 | 24 | .60 | 20.3 | -- |
The staying power of quarterbacks who’ve played well as rookies has been good. Of the 18 other quarterbacks who’ve averaged 20-plus points, all but three came back and did it again the next season.
It’s a little flimsy, admittedly, lumping in Purdy with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and others. But it’s looking like it might be reasonable in August drafts to compare Purdy against second quarterback options like Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, Jimmy Garoppolo and the rookies.
| ROOKIE QB AVERAGING 20 POINTS (the next year) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 208 | 2.40 | 80 | .47 | 30.9 | 1 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 248 | 1.63 | 51 | .69 | 28.2 | 3 |
| 2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 17 | 295 | 2.24 | 18 | .18 | 26.6 | 2 |
| 2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 260 | 1.63 | 34 | .31 | 24.8 | 6 |
| 2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 242 | 1.19 | 46 | .50 | 24.5 | 4 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 288 | 2.13 | 7 | .13 | 24.4 | 8 |
| 2020 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 8 | 260 | 1.88 | 16 | .13 | 23.1 | 12 |
| 2013 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 239 | 1.44 | 24 | .25 | 22.1 | 9 |
| 2019 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 193 | 1.25 | 32 | .56 | 21.6 | 14 |
| 2016 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 256 | 1.75 | 10 | .06 | 21.6 | 12 |
| 2018 | • C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 5 | 250 | 1.60 | 14 | .20 | 21.5 | -- |
| 2016 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 15 | 228 | 1.73 | 23 | .13 | 21.5 | 14 |
| 2013 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 13 | 246 | 1.23 | 38 | .00 | 21.3 | 11 |
| 2013 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 210 | 1.63 | 34 | .06 | 20.7 | 14 |
| 2017 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 208 | 1.38 | 22 | .38 | 20.4 | 12 |
| 2019 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 16 | 239 | 1.38 | 9 | .19 | 19.6 | 25 |
| 2020 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 14 | 210 | .79 | 30 | .07 | 17.2 | 30 |
| 2019 | • Nick Mullens, S.F. | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0 | .00 | .0 | -- |
| 2023 | Brock Purdy, S.F. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan