I saw a story indicating the Rams tried hard to trade Matthew Stafford in the offseason. It's not surprising; he has a ridiculous contract, with a lot of guaranteed money that any team would want to get off the books. It's even less surprising when you examine his play when healthy a year ago.
True, there were injuries that wiped out his second half of the season, and Cooper Kupp was also lost for the year halfway through. But even before those issues, Stafford was struggling to what was going to be a lesser campaign. Something to consider before investing too heavily in a bounce back for the quarterback or any of components of this passing game. It might be simply over.
In the first eight games of last season, healthy and with Kupp in the lineup, Stafford averaged 241 passing yards and threw 8 touchdowns, plus a rushing score. Project those numbers out over a full season, and he would have still had a below-average season in fantasy leagues -- 17th among quarterbacks (4-point TD passes, 1 point for every 20 passing yards), and even lower than that if you also projected full-season numbers for other quarterbacks who missed a chunk of games, like Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. Davis Mills and 2021 Teddy Bridgewater: that's the fantasy area Stafford would have wound up if you project his stats over a full season.
That's a far cry from 2021 Stafford, when the Rams won the Super Bowl and Stafford was the 5th-best quarterback, behind only Allen, Herbert, Brady and Mahomes. Table shows the top 50 fantasy quarterbacks from the last two seasons, with Stafford finishing as both one of the very best but also one of the very worst, had he played all of last season as he did the first half.
QUARTERBACKS, LAST TWO SEASONS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | FF |
2022 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 5250 | 41 | 12 | 358 | 4 | 493.9 |
2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4407 | 36 | 15 | 763 | 6 | 482.7 |
2022 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4283 | 35 | 14 | 762 | 7 | 476.4 |
2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 5014 | 38 | 15 | 302 | 3 | 462.9 |
2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 5316 | 43 | 12 | 81 | 2 | 457.9 |
2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 4839 | 37 | 13 | 381 | 2 | 444.1 |
2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 3701 | 22 | 6 | 760 | 13 | 431.1 |
2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 4475 | 35 | 12 | 257 | 5 | 425.5 |
2021 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 4886 | 41 | 17 | 43 | 0 | 416.6 |
2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4449 | 37 | 10 | 146 | 1 | 397.1 |
2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 4611 | 34 | 14 | 118 | 2 | 392.4 |
2021 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4115 | 37 | 4 | 101 | 3 | 382.5 |
2022 | Geno Smith, Sea. | 4282 | 30 | 11 | 366 | 1 | 376.7 |
2022 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4547 | 29 | 14 | 97 | 2 | 371.1 |
2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 4113 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 5 | 370.8 |
2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 3144 | 16 | 9 | 784 | 10 | 365.6 |
2021 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4221 | 33 | 7 | 115 | 1 | 360.6 |
2021 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3787 | 24 | 10 | 423 | 5 | 358.4 |
2022 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 4739 | 25 | 10 | 147 | 0 | 354.7 |
2022 | Jared Goff, Det. | 4438 | 29 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 350.7 |
2022 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 4694 | 25 | 9 | -1 | 1 | 344.6 |
2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 2242 | 17 | 11 | 1143 | 8 | 344.4 |
2021 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 4804 | 23 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 343.0 |
2021 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 3734 | 21 | 14 | 270 | 7 | 341.7 |
2022 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 3205 | 15 | 5 | 708 | 7 | 337.1 |
2021 | Carson Wentz, Ind. | 3563 | 27 | 7 | 215 | 1 | 317.7 |
2022 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3695 | 26 | 12 | 94 | 1 | 308.2 |
2021 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2882 | 16 | 13 | 767 | 2 | 300.8 |
2021 | Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 3810 | 20 | 12 | 51 | 3 | 295.6 |
2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 3801 | 22 | 13 | 129 | 0 | 295.0 |
2021 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 3968 | 20 | 12 | 82 | 1 | 294.6 |
2021 | Taylor Heinicke, Was. | 3419 | 20 | 15 | 313 | 1 | 291.1 |
2021 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3113 | 25 | 6 | 183 | 2 | 288.0 |
2022 | Russell Wilson, Den. | 3524 | 16 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 287.0 |
2021 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 3740 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 285.5 |
2022 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 3548 | 25 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 284.4 |
2022 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 3522 | 24 | 14 | 102 | 0 | 282.3 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 | 279.5 |
2022 | Stafford (proj.), LAR | 4097 | 17 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 278.0 |
2022 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2242 | 17 | 7 | 764 | 3 | 276.5 |
2022 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 2860 | 23 | 15 | 182 | 1 | 259.2 |
2021 | Jared Goff, Det. | 3245 | 19 | 8 | 87 | 0 | 255.0 |
2021 | Teddy Bridgewater, Den. | 3052 | 18 | 7 | 106 | 2 | 249.2 |
2022 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 3118 | 17 | 15 | 108 | 2 | 248.7 |
2021 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 3010 | 17 | 13 | 134 | 1 | 243.0 |
2022 | Marcus Mariota, Atl. | 2219 | 15 | 9 | 438 | 4 | 242.8 |
2022 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 2368 | 14 | 7 | 418 | 3 | 242.2 |
2021 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 2653 | 16 | 10 | 128 | 3 | 229.5 |
2022 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 2997 | 14 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 224.1 |
I don't think anyone is entering this season selecting Stafford as their starter in 1-QB leagues. Certainly not using our rankings, where he's slotted outside the top 25 quarterbacks. But I think it's something to keep in mind before using too lofty a selection on Kupp or any of the team's pass catchers, too. Not that Kupp wasn't killing it in PPR leagues with Stafford pre-injury last season -- he should still catch a ton of balls. But the heights of 2021 (both yards and touchdowns) seem well beyond both him and especially Stafford this year. Even if we're assuming the quarterback can stay on the field.
--Andy Richardson