DeAndre Hopkins signs with the Titans, and that’s a big domino to fall. It puts a different spin on Tennessee’s passing game – and provides clarity to other teams.
With Hopkins unsigned, there was always the potential he might sign with the Patriots, Bills or Kansas City. That would reduce the value of the wide receivers on those offenses (with Hopkins presumably taking on a large role in the offense). Now it’s clear that the Titans will be that team. Per reports, he’s signed a two-year deal worth about $26 million.
It’s a blow, I think, to Treylon Burks and Chigo Okonkwo. Both did some good things late last year, looking like possible breakout players for 2023. Burks caught a few long balls, while Okonkwo put up top-10 tight end numbers late in the year, looking like he’d be one of Tennessee’s primary pass catchers.
But Hopkins, while in the later stages of his career, is on a level above either of those guys. While he’s no longer a top-5 receiver, I expect he’ll be piling up a lot more targets, catches, yards and touchdowns than either of those second-year guys.
While Hopkins doesn’t get as many separation as in the past, he’s still arguably the best contested-ball catcher in the league. Until the Cardinals got down to their third-string quarterback last year, his numbers were just fine. In his seven games with Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy at quarterback, his numbers were better than every receiver short of Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase and Tyreek Hill (using PPR scoring).
| MOST PRODUCTIVE PER-GAME RECEIVERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | No | Yds | TD | PPR |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 9 | 8.3 | 90.2 | .78 | 22.6 |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 17 | 7.5 | 106.4 | .55 | 21.6 |
| JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 12 | 7.3 | 87.2 | .75 | 20.5 |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 17 | 7.0 | 100.6 | .47 | 20.1 |
| Hopkins, Ari. (Colt/Kyler) | 7 | 8.0 | 93.3 | .43 | 19.9 |
| Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 16 | 6.8 | 89.3 | .69 | 19.8 |
| Davante Adams, L.V. | 17 | 5.9 | 89.2 | .82 | 19.7 |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | 17 | 5.2 | 88.0 | .65 | 17.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 17 | 6.3 | 79.9 | .53 | 17.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 16 | 6.6 | 72.6 | .38 | 16.7 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 10 | 6.6 | 75.2 | .40 | 16.6 |
| Christian Watson, G.B. | 9 | 3.7 | 61.9 | .89 | 15.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 17 | 4.4 | 79.8 | .47 | 15.4 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 15 | 6.9 | 68.2 | .22 | 15.1 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 17 | 5.6 | 70.4 | .41 | 15.1 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 16 | 5.3 | 64.6 | .56 | 15.1 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 15 | 5.1 | 74.9 | .40 | 15.0 |
I adjusted the numbers in my spreadsheet. Previously I had Okonkwo as a top-10 tight end – a guy I was expecting to be one of the better values in the second halves of drafts. I’ve downgraded him a few spots, moving him below guys like David Njoku and Darren Waller.
Similarly, I previously had Burks as a top-30 type receiver. I’ve got him down around 40 now, while moving Hopkins up to about 25th. (I was lower on Hopkins previously, out of fear he might land in a lesser role with Buffalo or Kansas City.) Here, he looks like a clear No. 1 guy.
In my opinion, the move also makes Tennessee in general look like a more interesting team. Previously, I was wondering whether this was the last-place team in the AFC South. It’s a lot more plausible now, I think, that they might cobble together a competitive season. Mike Vrabel has shown more ability than other coaches at being able to put together winning teams with less talent. Hopkins could be the kind of guy who helps this offense score 3-4 more touchdowns.
Previously, I was thinking Ryan Tannehill looked like a quarterback who might be pulled in November (with the team transitioning to Will Levis). Today, the probability has increased that the Titans will remain competitive for the duration of the season. Those in Superflex Leagues, I think, should be looking at Tannehill has a decent third quarterback (should be going in the same range as guys like Stafford, Garoppolo, Ridder and Howell).
—Ian Allan