The AFC North, if the money lines mean anything, will be the league’s best division. According to the current odds, all four of those teams should finish with winning records.
Certainly, it passes the smell test. Cincinnati has been to the last two AFC Championship games. It is currently sitting with an over-under win total of 11.5, which ties for the highest in the league. The other teams in that division – Ravens, Browns, Steelers – all are projected to finish with winning records.
That will be difficult, of course, with these teams beating up on each other. But gamblers haven’t been scared away. Other than Cincinnati, the other three teams in that division have all seen their win totals increase since lines were first established in the offseason.
Combined, the four AFC North teams are currently projected to win 39.5 games. That’s 2.5 more than the AFC East and 3.5 more than the AFC West. The highest project total on the NFC is the East, with 35 projected wins.
Two divisions current project to win only 30 games – the NFC West and the AFC South. Conveniently, both of those divisions are slated to play against the AFC North. So while it may seem unlikely for four teams in a division to have winning records, each should benefit from playing eight games against the two weakest divisions.
The current projected win total over-under appear below. For each, I’m listing the initial projection from the spring, and also the current number. There’s a website showing the current numbers from five different sportsbooks. For each team, I used the over-under total that showed up at least three times.
Teams that now have higher over-under numbers, I’ve got them in bold. For teams whose numbers have declined, they’re tagged by black dots.
Previously, I tagged the Cardinals as my favorite bet. They were listed at 5.5 wins, and that’s way beyond their expectations. But they have slipped to a less-compelling 4.5.
If I had to pick one now, perhaps Green Bay, finishing with more than 7.5 wins. If Jordan Love is serviceable, perhaps it wins the NFC North. But I don’t see the Packers as the same kind of shoo-in pick that Arizona appeared to be a few months back.
| PROJECTED WIN TOTALS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Open | Current | Diff |
| Cincinnati | 11.5 | 11.5 | .0 |
| Kansas City | 11.5 | 11.5 | .0 |
| Philadelphia | 10.5 | 11.5 | 1.0 |
| • San Francisco | 11.5 | 10.5 | -1.0 |
| Buffalo | 10.5 | 10.5 | .0 |
| Dallas | 9.5 | 9.5 | .0 |
| Jacksonville | 9.5 | 9.5 | .0 |
| LA Chargers | 9.5 | 9.5 | .0 |
| Miami | 9.5 | 9.5 | .0 |
| New Orleans | 9.5 | 9.5 | .0 |
| NY Jets | 9.5 | 9.5 | .0 |
| Detroit | 9.0 | 9.5 | .5 |
| Baltimore | 8.5 | 9.5 | 1.0 |
| Cleveland | 8.5 | 9.5 | 1.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.5 | 9.0 | .5 |
| Denver | 8.5 | 8.5 | .0 |
| Minnesota | 8.5 | 8.5 | .0 |
| Seattle | 8.5 | 8.5 | .0 |
| Atlanta | 7.5 | 8.5 | 1.0 |
| • NY Giants | 8.5 | 7.5 | -1.0 |
| Carolina | 7.5 | 7.5 | .0 |
| Chicago | 7.5 | 7.5 | .0 |
| Green Bay | 7.5 | 7.5 | .0 |
| New England | 7.5 | 7.5 | .0 |
| Tennessee | 7.5 | 7.5 | .0 |
| • Las Vegas | 7.5 | 6.5 | -1.0 |
| • LA Rams | 7.5 | 6.5 | -1.0 |
| • Washington | 7.5 | 6.5 | -1.0 |
| Indianapolis | 6.5 | 6.5 | .0 |
| Tampa Bay | 6.5 | 6.5 | .0 |
| Houston | 5.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 |
| • Arizona | 5.5 | 4.5 | -1.0 |
—Ian Allan