Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Why the Index has a lesser grade on Tua Tagovailoa. Adjusting for devalued running backs. ADP data. Finding values in auction leagues. And more.
Question 1
You are high on Miami's Hill and Waddle, but not Tagovailoa. Can you explain?
JEFF POWERS (Coral Springs, FL)
I have concerns about his ability to stay healthy. If he suffers a concussion, it could be a season-ender. That being the case, I’m more comfortable with similar quarterbacks who look a lot more likely to be available for the duration – Prescott, Geno, Rodgers, Dangerwich.
Tua also isn’t a runner. He averaged only 5 rushing yards in his 13 starts last year, with no touchdowns. That makes for an uphill climb statistically in typical leagues. (With the concussion issues last year, he may even run less often this season).
Fans of Tua, of course, will point out that he was pretty great last year. Setting aside the Bengals game, he averaged 287 passing yards in his other 12 starts, with 25 TDs. He was a top-5 quarterback in per-game production. But I also don’t think he’s going to produce at those levels. I expect the Dolphins will make more of an effort this year to not forget about the run.
Question 2
10-team keeper league; I picked 2nd overall. Looking to see thoughts on a keeper for 2023. Options are Saquon Barkley (2nd round), Dameon Pierce (5th), Brian Robinson (13th), Khalil Herbert (last-round pick) or Samaje Perine (last-round pick). Any advice is always appreciated.
Pete Kelly (Evergreen Park, IL)
Barkley looks like a top-5 back to me. I’ve got him at about No. 12 overall on my board. You’d be giving up the 18th pick to get him. So that looks like a decent value. Put him down as a possibility. And Pierce looks like a possible breakout player. He runs hard, and the Texans could or should be a notch better, with Bobby Slowik (the new OC) potentially helping to get that running game going. But you would be giving up the 42nd pick to protect Pierce, and that’s earlier than I think he’ll be selected. So I would probably go with Robinson or Perine. I’ve got both of those guys around 30th among running backs, and you’d be getting them with late-round picks. I’d be more inclined to take a swing on one of them providing a solid chunk of value, rather than those six spots of draft position in the second round with Barkley.
Question 3
What do you consider the best source for up-to-date ADP data?
DONALD VANDENBORD (Saint Augustine, FL)
I don’t have an ADP source that I fully trust. I have looked some at fantasyfooballcalculator.com and ESPN, but I always see numbers that look fishy. At fantasyfootballcalculator, for example, they say the chart is derived from over 10,000 drafts in the last 10 days, but the stats separately indicate that no player has been drafted 4,000 times. Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave supposedly have been picked over 3,000 times, while Justin Jefferson has been chosen only 2,054 times. If there are 8,000 drafts where Jefferson wasn’t even picked, why are they being used? I don’t understand it. Maybe the results include dynasty or keeper drafts, with Jefferson already off the board. At that website, I see Evan Engram listed as the No. 11 tight end in PPR drafts. I don’t think that represents reality – I don’t think he’s going after Schultz and Njoku in a majority of drafts.
With the ESPN data, I see some head scratchers that I don’t believe. At tight end, for example, Trey McBride isn’t in the top 50, but the likes of Durham Smythe, Rob Gronkowski, Daniel Bellinger and Darnell Washington are in the top 40. How is that possible? And I see Irv Smith as the 26th tight end; that’s not happening.
Question 4
With all this talk of teams devaluing running backs, is it time for fantasy leagues to adjust rules to make starting lineups less reliant on the position? What about starting only one running back? I know a lot of fantasy owners who would like that, given all the running back committees popping up across the league. Quarterbacks are the major factor in an NFL team being any good, so maybe it’s time QBs become the centerpiece of fantasy lineups.
Paul Owers (Boynton Beach, FL)
Agreed. I see two changes that can help. One is the move to the Superflex, allowing teams to start two quarterbacks. That not only makes players like Burrow, Herbert and Lamar Jackson possible first-round picks, it also makes those quarterbacks in the teens (Geno Smith, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones) valuable every-week starters. In the Superflex format, even the lesser quarterbacks (Ridder, Howell, Tannehill, etc.) are picked before the last rounds, with everyone wanting to have three quarterbacks.
As an additional rule, eliminating or blurring the lines between running backs and wide receivers can help. That is, instead of starting two running backs and three wide receivers, just allow teams to start whatever five players they want. If that’s too wild for you, perhaps start a running back, a wide receiver and three flex players.
Question 5
I've got the 4th pick in a PPR league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex (RB, WR, TE). My thought process is to take the top ranked RB and WRs for the first eight rounds and then look at somebody like Cousins at QB. I view TE other than Kelce as a wasteland where I will probably be the last to draft one. My thinking is my team being strong at RB and WR will cover me during bye weeks or injuries. Is this sound or flawed reasoning in your opinion? I have thick skin, so you won't hurt my feelings.
Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)
I finished a Fanex draft a week or so back. In that league, teams start 2 RB, 3 WR and a flex. In that 12-team league, 10 quarterbacks were selected in the first eight rounds. Three went in the 10th round: Prescott, Cousins, Daniel Jones. Four went in the 11th: Carr, Rodgers, Richardson, Geno Smith. Three went in the 12th: Russell Wilson, Goff, Love. I would think if you draft two-three quarterbacks in the rounds 9-12, you should be just fine at the position (assuming you can use those extra picks in the first eight rounds to build an advantage at the other positions).
Question 6
Hey Ian, I’m a long-time subscriber and am a big fan of the content you put out especially the team updates you do on the cheat sheets. My question to you is, do you plan on doing a cheat sheet or rankings for people in dynasty leagues? I’m in a dynasty league right now and am in a situation with multiple early picks.
Max Neuens (Hartland, WI)
Yes. We do put together updated dynasty rankings all through August. We have the traditional newsletter that goes out on Monday, with team notes and updated rankings (for 2023 leagues). On Thursday, a page is added to that product, showing how the players rank for dynasty purposes. I was just going for those lists yesterday. We’ll be showing about 80 RB, 80 TE, 40 QB and 40 TE. Once we get into the season, I put post an updated dynasty league each Saturday, rotating between the four notable positions.
Question 7
With the Patriots bringing in Cook, Fournette and Elliott, would you keep Stevenson at $9 (your value in my league is $15.90) or Devonta Smith at $11 (your value in my league is $12.22)? I know that Stevenson is the better value right now, but wondering what it'll be if and when the Patriots sign one of those veteran backs?
Chase Grainger (Weston, FL)
Due diligence. The Patriots are just seeing where those guys are at. (If it happens to drive up the price when Cook signs with the Jets or Dolphins, that will be an added bonus). Stevenson will be starting for the Patriots. If expect Pierre Strong will be backing him up. If, come mid-August, they don’t feel Strong is ready for that No. 2 role or if Stevenson sprains his ankle, they’ll have an idea of which veteran free agents might fit best with them. Stevenson is definitely your keeper.
Question 8
The tight end position looks thinner than ever, with Kittle and Andrews both having injury histories and Hockenson and Knox both having rookies to worry about, and so many offensive coordinator changes this year. How viable do you think it would be to draft two high draft pick TEs, with the intention to start one in the flex position? Yes, possibly getting reduced numbers for your flex but a quality TE should your lead go down. Am I just being wacky, since most sources usually say only draft one TE and QB?
Ed Burke (Clifton Heights, PA)
In a typical draft, there will be some later-round value picks at tight end. In the draft I finished last week, three pretty good ones weren’t among the first 140 players selected: Sam LaPorta, Irv Smith and Chigo Okonkwo. Dawson Knox lasted until pick 179, and Jake Ferguson went 4 picks later. If you picked two tight ends early, it would reduce your ability to cash in on such values.
Question 9
Which running backs do you think will score the most touchdowns this year?
Brendan May ()
In most years, there’s a clear favorite. I don’t see that kind of guy this year. McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Chubb and Montgomery, I think, would consist of my short list. Montgomery will surprise some, but the Lions ran the ball a ton around the goal line last year, with Jamaal Williams leading the league in touchdowns. Montgomery is a better version of Williams. With Chubb, he didn’t play well with Deshaun Watson at quarterback last year; but it’s a new year, and Chubb definitely passes the smell test for talent. Ekeler has bagged a bunch of touchdowns the last two years, but he’s a smaller back and the Chargers have a new offensive coordinator.
Question 10
Our league is simply based on points (non ppr) and you don't have to fill certain positions (RB/WR/TE all grouped as one). Am I crazy for wanting to pick somebody like Chase over guys like Ekeler, Robinson, Taylor and other top RBs? We do get a bonus for TDs over 50 yards. Thanks for the help!
Ryan Klein (Tinley Park, IL)
Makes sense to me. Via my current numbers, you’d be looking at McCaffrey, Henry, Chubb, Jefferson and Chase. McCaffrey would be No. 1, with Jefferson and Chase 2-3 TDs back. But they would have more potential to score 50-yard touchdowns, closing that gap. I feel a lot more comfortable about those receivers playing 16-plus games.
Question 11
I am enjoying reading and re-reading this year’s magazine. As an auction fanatic, I enjoy immensely your annual Auction Mock writeup. That being said, it would be helpful to have access to the results in the order they happened. It would provide better clarity to the results and comments of the participants to have a sequential list of the results, pick by pick. Thanks for all of the ideas you have helped me with in my fantasy leagues over the years.
Stephen Paschall (Lone Tree, CO)
Thanks for the kind words. I can’t give you the exact ordering of the auction in the magazine. I can, however, give you the results of the last auction I participated in. They serve as a reminder that in typical auctions, the worst buys tend to come early. That makes sense, in that it would be tough to walk away with a steal when the other 11 owners all had most of their money left.
This was a 12-team using PPR scoring, with each team given $200 to spend on 20 players – 240 players being picked overall. I thought 92 players were worth at least $10 dollars. Looking only at that subset, the 15 worst buys all occurred in the first half of the draft. Over half of those overpays happened were among the first 50 on the block. So this was an auction where it made sense to hang back.
In the chart below, the first column shows the order of sale (with Cooper Kupp the first player sold). The winning bid is shown as the cost, next to his value (according to my projections).
| 15 WORST VALUES OF FANEX AUCTION | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale | Player | Cost | Value | Pct |
| 12 | TE George Kittle | $17 | $11.12 | 153% |
| 87 | WR DK Metcalf | $29 | $19.30 | 150% |
| 67 | WR Chris Olave | $26 | $17.60 | 148% |
| 106 | WR Diontae Johnson | $21 | $14.33 | 147% |
| 24 | WR Mike Evans | $17 | $12.11 | 140% |
| 6 | RB Bijan Robinson | $39 | $29.22 | 133% |
| 36 | RB Saquon Barkley | $36 | $26.98 | 133% |
| 81 | WR Michael Pittman | $15 | $11.35 | 132% |
| 32 | WR A.J. Brown | $34 | $26.78 | 127% |
| 47 | WR Stefon Diggs | $37 | $29.50 | 125% |
| 94 | WR Calvin Ridley | $24 | $19.23 | 125% |
| 62 | WR Christian Kirk | $24 | $19.71 | 122% |
| 10 | RB James Cook | $16 | $13.21 | 121% |
| 44 | RB Jahmyr Gibbs | $25 | $20.69 | 121% |
| 1 | WR Cooper Kupp | $39 | $32.83 | 119% |
Of the 20 best values, on the other hand, 70 percent occurred after 80 players had been removed from the board. There short of analysis, of course, is naturally biased in favor of the players that I’m high on. Using my projections, eight of the 20 best buys are guys that I purchased myself (and I’ve got them tagged with black dots).
At the end of the draft, I had the money to purchase either Skyy Moore or Samaje Perine as my final player but chose to instead buy a fourth quarterback (Geno Smith), which probably wasn’t smart.
| 20 BEST VALUES OF FANEX AUCTION | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale | Player | Cost | Value | Pct |
| 158 | • QB Aaron Rodgers | $2 | $10.11 | 20% |
| 148 | WR Skyy Moore | $3 | $12.10 | 25% |
| 177 | RB Samaje Perine | $4 | $15.25 | 26% |
| 146 | • WR Odell Beckham | $4 | $14.51 | 28% |
| 84 | RB Dalvin Cook | $5 | $17.26 | 29% |
| 174 | WR Treylon Burks | $4 | $10.56 | 38% |
| 137 | RB Antonio Gibson | $6 | $13.88 | 43% |
| 147 | • WR Michael Thomas | $5 | $11.21 | 45% |
| 46 | • RB Isiah Pacheco | $12 | $25.68 | 47% |
| 150 | RB Jerick McKinnon | $5 | $10.69 | 47% |
| 29 | WR Romeo Doubs | $5 | $10.58 | 47% |
| 78 | RB Cam Akers | $13 | $23.19 | 56% |
| 185 | WR Marquise Brown | $7 | $12.10 | 58% |
| 141 | WR Mike Williams | $10 | $16.99 | 59% |
| 76 | RB Alvin Kamara | $11 | $18.12 | 61% |
| 135 | RB Brian Robinson | $9 | $14.48 | 62% |
| 89 | • WR Christian Watson | $15 | $23.75 | 63% |
| 40 | • RB David Montgomery | $15 | $23.71 | 63% |
| 98 | • QB Trevor Lawrence | $12 | $18.65 | 64% |
| 79 | • TE Pat Freiermuth | $8 | $12.39 | 65% |