Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Why it's best to zig when others zag on Isiah Pacheco. Most underrated players on the Fantasy Index draft board. Does a light suspension make Kamara an elite back again? And more.
Question 1
Most publications have Isiah Pacheco ranked between 25-35 in just the running back rankings. My custom rankings have him as the 12th running back and 17th overall. What am I missing?
PAUL NICKAS (Jacksonville, FL)
He’s a key guy on my board. I think he’s going to be very good, and he’ll be on the vast majority of my teams. I have been surprised to see how low he’s showing up on most other draft lists. Kansas City will have one of the best offenses, so it will rank among the leaders in rushing touchdowns, and Pacheco (pictured) will be their leading back.
Some (I think) are turned off by him not being used much at all as a pass catcher last year, but I think that will change now that he’s been around for a year and has a better grasp of the offense. Pacheco caught 5 passes in the AFC title game. Including the preseason, he caught 22 of the 24 passes thrown his way – his hands are fine.
With others being low on him and Pacheco currently banged up, you’ll have to figure how far to let him slide in your draft. No need to take him in the top 20 overall. The ADP numbers on ESPN indicate he’s currently lasting until the 70th pick in drafts, going as the 25th running back.
Question 2
In what round would you draft Alvin Kamara now that he has a 3-game suspension?
Brendan May ()
We moved him up a little bit. I was expecting a longer suspension. The way the Personal Conduct Policy is written, I thought he would be out for six games. But three games is still a significant obstacle for fantasy leaguers to negotiate. Those who pick him will have to make do with somebody else in that spot until October. And Kamara isn’t quite the back now that he’s been in the past. At 28, he’s not as explosive. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry as a rookie and 5.0 as recently as 2020, but he’s been down at 3.7 and 4.0 the last two years. He scored only 4 TDs in 15 games last year. Per ADP, Kamara currently is showing up 20th among running backs. I’ve got him a few spots lower than that, behind Dameon Pierce, James Conner, Miles Sanders and Rachaad White.
Question 3
Are we going to have Large Print for cheat sheet, point per reception? I am getting older and my magnifying glasses are not doing their job.
Dave Kendall (Shelton, WA)
I’m right there with you. We are working on an adjusted version of the Cheat Sheet. It will eliminate the projected points for each player, allowing the size of the font to increase. (This will apply on the position-by-position version of the product; the stat totals will remain on the version that has all of the positions mixed together.) I believe it will debut either tomorrow or on Monday.
Question 4
Please rank the following keepers. I can only keep them for this year (full point ppr): Olave, Burks, Ridley, Dotson
DON FRANKS (Sparks, NV)
Everybody in Jacksonville keeps talking about Ridley – that he’s a lot better than any of the pass catchers they had there last year. It’s either him or Olave, I think. Let’s see what they look like in the preseason. If Michael Thomas looks healthy and ready to go, I will go with Ridley.
Question 5
When comparing the RB redraft rankings to the recent Dynasty rankings, I've noticed that many of the highest ranked on the dynasty list (other than McCaffrey) are relatively low in the redraft rankings. Our 10-team, TD-heavy, league allows us to keep one player indefinitely, so we need to factor in both the upcoming season as well as the future when ranking players. Breece Hall, B.Robinson, J.Taylor and Travis Etienne are all pretty low in custom rankings, while Pollard, N. Harris, and Saquon are outside the top 5 in dynasty. What are your top three of the RBs mentioned above when considering this year and the future?
Bob Heaps (Portage, MI)
Dynasty running back grades are tough, with NFL teams quick to kick guys to the curb. With backs like McCaffrey, Mixon, Henry, Ekeler and even Chubb how much good career do they actually have left? Hall looked phenomenal in October last year – like he might become the league’s best running back – but he’s coming off a torn ACL. So it might be 2024 before he’s really ripping it up, but then you’re getting more football than with older back who are better right now. With Bijan, the hope is that he’ll be another McCaffrey or Kamara. If that’s the case, he’s the back to take No. 1 overall. Supposedly they love him at their training camp, but I wasn’t wowed by some of his highlights from Texas. Hall is faster than Robinson, and I’ve seen him run effectively against NFL defenses. Taylor is embroiled in a contract kerfuffle, but he’s a big-time back. He’s also only 24 – a year younger than Najee Harris. Once Taylor and a team get on the same page financially, he would be in that tier. In regards to the rankings, the 2023 rankings are more straightforward. We project numbers for each player, indicating what we think they’ll do this year. With the dynasty rankings, they’re put together by hand. I’m going down the listing, trying to slot them by what feels right. And I’m trying to think about what might be happening with the player in a year or two. I tend to elevate the younger guys, and I tend to assume pass-catching backs – Ekeler, McCaffrey, Robinson – will have a longer careers than the tradition power backs slamming between the tackles.
Question 6
Who is your 'Ride or Die' fantasy player this year, that you are planting your flag by and ends up on the majority of your fantasy teams?
Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)
I’ve got the most-recent ADP numbers in front of me. I see four running backs in the 20s that I have 8-13 spots higher on my board: Kenneth Walker, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, David Montgomery. I see three tight ends who are going 19th to 28th, where I’m 8-16 spots higher on them – Knox, Irv Smith, Hunter Henry. And I see three wide receivers ranked 32nd to 37th where I’m 8-13 spots higher on them: Drake London, Christian Kirk, Brandin Cooks.
Question 7
I am in a 10-team keeper league that keeps 7. I need to pick my 7th player, Justin Fields or Jameson Williams. Who would you go with? My other six keepers are Ekeler, Mixon, N.Harris, Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb.
Ryan Holland (Churchville, PA)
With the receivers you have, Williams would be a luxury pick. He wouldn’t play much for you this year. The hope would be that he might develop into a top-10 type receiver in the future – that he might be a Wilson/Olave kind of guy. Fields would help you more right now. He’d be your expected starting quarterback, with some chance he develops into something in the Jalen Hurts vein. The vast majority would protect Fields; he’s currently being selected before Justin Herbert in drafts (which I think is absolutely insane). I’m not a big fan of his game. I think I might be more inclined to keep Williams locked down, drafting a couple of quarterbacks like Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers to handle that position (I’m in the minority, but I have both of those guys higher than Fields on my draft board).
Question 8
In our 10-team PPR league, we also get .5 pts per carry. How does that add to and shake up the first few rounds draft strategy?
derek king ()
It would make running quarterbacks more valuable. Guys like Hurts, Allen, Fields and Lamar Jackson would move past some of the less-mobile quarterbacks. (You carry the ball 10 times, that’s 5 points). And run-oriented backs would increase in value – Henry, Chubb, Najee. Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor would be in that group, assuming they resolve their contract issues.
This feature can be worked in using the custom scoring. There’s no specific “Add points for carries” feature, but it can be folded in with yards. If a player averages 5 yards per carry, he generate an extra point for every 10 rushing yards. If a player averaged 4 yards per carry, he would generate an extra 1.5 points for every 10 yards. For our purposes, I think we can put in an extra 1.25 points for every 10 rushing yards and call it good. (Backs averaging around 4 yards per carry will be shorted a few points, and those averaging 5-plus yards were receive some extra points, but it will work well enough for our purposes).
Question 9
Our league is adding bonuses for long FGs. 4 pts for 40-49 yds, 5 pts for 50-59 yds, 6 pts for 60+ yds. Also -1 pt for missed kicks. The custom rankings don't allow for all of these options. How would you rank kickers based on these rules?
Scott Kopischke (Brookfield, WI)
I wouldn’t spend much extra time on it. The guys who are the best kickers in the more complex scoring system are going to be the same guys who are the leaders in the more traditional format. I’d just hang back and wait until the kicker run begins. After Justin Tucker and Daniel Carlson have been chosen, grab Younghoe Koo. He’ll be fine.
| KICKERS: REGULAR V. DELUXE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | NFL | Rk | Deluxe | Rk |
| Daniel Carlson | 137 | 3-4 | 158 | 1 |
| Justin Tucker | 142 | 2 | 157 | 2 |
| Jason Myers | 143 | 1 | 155 | 3-4 |
| Brett Maher | 137 | 3-4 | 155 | 3-4 |
| Younghoe Koo | 129 | 6-8 | 145 | 5 |
| Eddy Pineiro | 129 | 6-8 | 142 | 6 |
| Graham Gano | 119 | 11-12 | 140 | 7 |
| Nick Folk | 128 | 9 | 138 | 8 |
| Tyler Bass | 129 | 6-8 | 137 | 9 |
| Robbie Gould | 131 | 5 | 136 | 10 |
| Riley Patterson | 126 | 10 | 134 | 11 |
| Chase McLaughlin | 111 | 19-21 | 132 | 12 |
| Greg Zuerlein | 118 | 13-14 | 131 | 13 |
| Matt Gay | 115 | 16 | 130 | 14-15 |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 111 | 19-21 | 130 | 14-15 |
Question 10
Been here more years than I can remember. Great work. How much weight do you give to the offensive line for each team when setting up the rankings? I think it's a huge factor but I don't make money putting together the lists …
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
Agreed. You get a team with a killer offensive line – Detroit, Philly, KC, Cleveland – and I’m more interested in players from those offenses. Jerome Ford, for example, would be a forgettable backup running for most teams. With the Browns, you can see how he might get on the field at some point and crank out some viable games.
If you’ve got a team that has an overmatched offensive line or that just can’t get out of its own way, I’m leery of investing too much into it. Raiders, Cardinals for sure, and maybe the Bucs and Rams.
Question 11
Hey Ian, been a Cheater since 1997! 12-team PPR league. I’m keeping Jefferson. We get to choose our draft slot, and I have my choice of either 2nd pick or 11th. Looking at the first three rounds, would you rather have Jefferson + picks 14 & 35? Or Jefferson + picks 23 & 26?
Scott Anderson (Las Vegas, NV)
I got my overall top 35 out and looked at it. I don’t see a ton of difference between the two pairs. I think I would go with 14 & 35, selecting a wide receiver with the first pick. There will be an acceptable back available at 35. If you try the 23-26 pairing, you might not like the wide receivers you’re picking from. Andy had the 22nd pick in a draft Monday. Having taken McCaffrey at 1.03, he was lamenting that no good receivers were left. He ended up going with another running back and selecting Tee Higgins in the third round.
Question 12
Three leagues I am in have a feature I really like but don't see anywhere else. If you are picked to draft No. 1, you can choose your draft position! You don't have to pick 1, you can pick 4, 6 or 12. Why don't we see more of this?
Gerry Dix (Caledonia, MN)
Sounds good to me. But better yet, why not an auction or drauction (combination of draft and auction) given everyone a level playing field when deciding how to construct their roster?
Question 13
12 team PPR league where we can keep 3 players, but we lose the pick in the round that they were drafted. I am keeping Pickens (8) and Ridley (18). I need to pick one more from Doubs (10), Aaron Rodgers (11), Jamaal Williams (13), McKinnon (14) or Jeff Wilson (16). Any opinion on best choice with most upside/value?
RAYMOND HOEGEN (Danville, NH)
Ridley is your best keeper; agreed on that front. But I don’t know that I’d protect Pickens. He’s a nice prospect, but isn’t eighth round about where he’s going to go? His ADP right now is 93. I drafted Pickens with the 12th pick in the seventh round in a draft two weeks ago. I’d be more inclined to commit to Rodgers with an 11th-round pick, figuring he’d either be a good backup or a co-starter at quarterback. I’ve got Rodgers going earlier than Pickens on my board. And for my third keeper, I’d be more inclined to go with one of the running backs. McKinnon if you simply want a depth player in place at the position (he’s the guy I would pick). Williams is you’re placing more value on having a starter in September. If you were to keep Williams, it would make Kamara look a lot more compelling in the earlier rounds, knowing that you would have the player filling in for him in those early weeks. With Wilson, it’s a blind swing at Miami’s three-man backfield.
Question 14
10-team keeper. I can keep 2 players. Looking at RB Pierce Hou 5th rd and WR Olave NO 14th rd. I pick #2. If other keepers play out the way I think they will, I will be looking at RB Robinson ATL, RB Barkley, RB Mixon, WR Lamb as my top choices for 1st rd. I'm pretty sure I can get 2 of either Montgomery, Aaron Jones, Etiene, Pollard, Waddle and maybe AJ Brown as my 2nd and 3rd rd picks. Which route would you recommend in the first round?
Brian Heuring (Anoka, MN)
Big decision, I guess, will be which way to go with the No. 2 overall pick. If Bijan looks like he might be a McCaffrey-Kamara type guy, it would be compelling to draft him, controlling his rights for a few years. I am not a big Robinson fan, but let’s see what he looks like in the preseason. If we’re picking today, I’d be more likely to pick Lamb.
Question 15
In a PPR league, I need to protect two players. All TDs are 6 points. Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce, Javonte Williams.
Tony Falvo (Toronto, ON)
When moving to 6 for TD passes, that changes things. You want a good quarterback. Lawrence looks like might be in that top tier. I’ve got him as the 7th quarterback, but that’s an offense and a team that could pop some. He’s heading into his third year, and Calvin Ridley might add a dimension to the offense. For the other keeper, I don’t see much difference between four of the others. Javonte Williams is coming off the torn ACL, so I don’t think he’s in play. If we’re picking today, I’ll go with Higgins, but ask me again next week and I might go with someone else. If the Texans were to somehow make the move up toward respectability, Pierce could really be something.
Question 16
Standard scoring with 6-point touchdowns. Keep four of Lawrence, Jacobs, Adams, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Kamara, Pickens, Pierce and Christian Watson. Jacobs, Adams and Lawrence seem like locks. Leaning Watson on spot four but Jeudy seems like a possibility as well?
Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)
I would go Watson. He played at an elite level at times during the second half of last year, and I’m a little more bullish than most on the Packers. I think they’re going to be pretty good. With Jeudy, I’m not sure exactly what we’re getting. Maybe or probably Denver’s No. 1 guy, but possibly used as more of a deep threat, with some other player seeing more of the targets.