Here we go again? The 49ers say Elijah Mitchell will be out for a week or so with an abductor injury, and I’m wondering if it’s time we all started drafting Jordan Mason in the late rounds of drafts.
Mitchell is talented. He’s averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a pro. But he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’s missed 18 of his first 34 pro games. He missed six games with three different injuries as a rookie, and he had two stints on IR last year. He just doesn’t seem to have a body type that holds up as well.
Enter Mason (pictured). Showing up as an undrafted rookie, he played his way onto the roster last August by running hard in the preseason. He caused the 49ers to give up on Trey Sermon (a third-round pick just a year earlier), and he beat out Tyrion Davis-Price. And Mason performed well with his limited carries in the regular season, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt.
With Mitchell’s injury problems, I think it’s plausible the 49ers will get down to using Mason as their starting tailback at some point this year. It would be tough for Christian McCaffrey (who also has had some durability issues) to last all 17 games. And if Mason gets a chance in the starting lineup, I’m interested.
With that in mind, makes sense to look at the other backs who’ve had Mason-type seasons. That is, when a player rips it up with a limited number of touches as a rookie, how many of those guys go on to then have some success in their second year and beyond?
In the 32-team era, I see 15 backs who carried the ball between 35-70 times as a rookie and averaged at least 5 yards per carry. Seven of those players at some point in their careers had a top-25 fantasy season (using PPR scoring). Austin Ekeler and Jamaal Charles lead the way, having made it all the way up into the No. 1 spot.
Of those 15 players, over half in their next season averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry. But no bother. Given the lay of the land, I think Mason deserves consideration in the late rounds in large leagues. (If we’re in a league where only 65 running backs are being picked, it would be tough for him to make the cut.)
Definitely makes sense for all of us to be keeping an eye on Mitchell’s health.
In the chart below, you’re seeing the 15 backs who averaged over 5 yards per carry as rookies (with limited touches). In the chart, you’re seeing their 2nd-year production. The ones tagged with black dots; those are the guys who had a top-25 season at some point.
| RUNNING BACKS WHO FLASHED AS ROOKIES (the next year) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rookie Yr | Att | Yards | Avg | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2002 | • LaMont Jordan, NYJ | 39-292-2 | 84 | 316 | 3.8 | 17 | 160 | 3 | 82.6 | 51 |
| 2004 | • Justin Fargas, Oak. | 40-203-0 | 35 | 126 | 3.6 | 11 | 68 | 1 | 36.4 | 85 |
| 2004 | Lee Suggs, Cle. | 56-289-2 | 199 | 744 | 3.7 | 20 | 178 | 3 | 130.2 | 34 |
| 2005 | Mewelde Moore, Min. | 65-379-0 | 155 | 662 | 4.3 | 37 | 339 | 4 | 161.1 | 26 |
| 2006 | Ryan Moats, Phil. | 55-278-3 | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | 129 |
| 2009 | • Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 67-357-1 | 190 | 1120 | 5.9 | 40 | 297 | 9 | 237.7 | 10 |
| 2009 | • Peyton Hillis, Den. | 68-343-6 | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 17.3 | 113 |
| 2010 | • Rashad Jennings, Jac. | 39-202-1 | 84 | 459 | 5.5 | 26 | 223 | 4 | 118.2 | 42 |
| 2012 | Evan Royster, Was. | 56-328-0 | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 15 | 109 | 2 | 46.7 | 74 |
| 2013 | David Wilson, NYG | 71-358-6 | 44 | 146 | 3.3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 23.4 | 107 |
| 2014 | Benny Cunningham, St.L. | 47-261-1 | 66 | 246 | 3.7 | 45 | 352 | 4 | 128.8 | 32 |
| 2018 | • Austin Ekeler, LAC | 47-260-5 | 106 | 554 | 5.2 | 39 | 404 | 6 | 170.8 | 25 |
| 2019 | Jordan Wilkins, Ind. | 60-336-1 | 51 | 307 | 6.0 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 54.0 | 70 |
| 2019 | Kalen Ballage, Mia. | 36-191-1 | 74 | 135 | 1.8 | 14 | 63 | 3 | 51.8 | 71 |
| 2021 | • AJ Dillon, G.B. | 46-242-2 | 187 | 803 | 4.3 | 34 | 313 | 7 | 187.6 | 23 |
| 2023 | Jordan Mason, S.F. | 43-258-1 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan