Alvin Kamara's suspension for his involvement in a 2022 Las Vegas street fight/beating was handed down yesterday, and it was surprising. What was widely expected to be a six-game seat for the Saints starter was in fact only 3 -- yes, half what several players recently got for placing legal bets on other professional sports. Kamara met with Roger Goodell this week, and he must be a helluva salesman.
So Kamara will miss the first three weeks of the season, but will be starting for New Orleans in Week 4. Those who've already drafted him are celebrating, while those who selected New Orleans' other two running backs, Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller, are glum. What might be expected from those players?
With Miller, well, he looks like a solid dynasty pick. The third-round pick out of Texas Christian should open as a change of pace to Williams, and both Williams and Kamara are currently 28 years old, basically a foot in the grave in the NFL running back terms. But come Week 4, he's going to be the No. 3. Williams is guaranteed $5 million for this season ($3.9M in signing bonus and $1.1M in base salary) -- he's not going anywhere. Maybe Miller is so impressive in August and Weeks 1-3 he carves out a role after that, but don't count on it.
We'll see exactly where all three of these backs will show up in the Update that comes out Monday morning, but I'll try to guess where they should be for those unlucky souls drafting tonight or tomorrow. I think Kamara, who was 29th (PPR) in the latest Update, should probably show up about 10-12 spots higher. There's a clump of running backs there (Montgomery, Pierce, Conner) who I can make a case for putting him at the top or bottom of. Parked on the bench the first three weeks, potentially putting up 15-plus points as soon as Week 4.
As for Williams, who was 36th in that same update, he falls some. But maybe not as much as you'd expect.
For three weeks, he should be an excellent starter -- the lead back and close to a full-time player in an offense that hosts Tennessee and plays at Carolina and Green Bay; not a scary schedule. And when Kamara's back, he could still be usable as a No. 2.
Kamara has been New Orleans' starter the last five years, and in those seasons the Saints have usually had a viable No. 2. Last year is hard to break down -- Mark Ingram, David Johnson and Latavius Murray all had games in that complementary role -- but the previous four years, even while Kamara was putting up top-10 numbers, New Orleans had a viable second running back, as well.
Table shows the stats and finish in PPR leagues for Kamara and his sidekick from 2017 to 2021. Williams won't be finishing in the top 10, like Ingram did back in 2017, but top 30-35, like Murray did a couple of times? That's possible. Looking at our PPR rankings, I'd still be willing to select Williams inside the top 40 at the position. The Saints aren't paying him $5M not to put him on the field.
| KAMARA AND SIDEKICK, 2017-2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | Pts | Rk |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara | 120 | 728 | 81 | 826 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | Mark Ingram | 230 | 1124 | 58 | 416 | 12 | 284.0 | 6 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara | 194 | 883 | 81 | 709 | 18 | 354.2 | 4 |
| 2018 | Mark Ingram | 138 | 645 | 21 | 170 | 7 | 144.5 | 32 |
| 2019 | Alvin Kamara | 171 | 797 | 81 | 533 | 6 | 250.7 | 9 |
| 2019 | Latavius Murray | 146 | 637 | 34 | 235 | 6 | 157.2 | 29 |
| 2020 | Alvin Kamara | 187 | 932 | 83 | 756 | 21 | 377.8 | 1 |
| 2020 | Latavius Murray | 146 | 656 | 23 | 176 | 5 | 136.2 | 34 |
| 2021 | Alvin Kamara | 240 | 898 | 47 | 439 | 9 | 234.7 | 9 |
| 2021 | Mark Ingram | 160 | 554 | 27 | 162 | 2 | 110.6 | 49 |
--Andy Richardson