Justin Herbert as a big new contract. He also has a schedule that looks favorable.
Based on how teams played last year, the Chargers will play the most pass-friendly schedule in the league (using standard fantasy scoring).
Other teams with favorable pass schedules including the Saints, Packers and Bengals. The Giants, Cardinals and Rams project to play the worst schedules (for passing purposes).
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
LA Chargers | 242 | 1.42 | 32.7 |
New Orleans | 240 | 1.45 | 32.7 |
Green Bay | 241 | 1.43 | 32.7 |
Cincinnati | 241 | 1.40 | 32.5 |
Indianapolis | 241 | 1.38 | 32.4 |
Houston | 239 | 1.41 | 32.3 |
Seattle | 238 | 1.40 | 32.2 |
Chicago | 236 | 1.44 | 32.2 |
Baltimore | 238 | 1.39 | 32.2 |
Jacksonville | 238 | 1.38 | 32.0 |
Las Vegas | 234 | 1.44 | 32.0 |
Carolina | 235 | 1.40 | 31.9 |
San Francisco | 235 | 1.41 | 31.9 |
Denver | 234 | 1.42 | 31.9 |
Philadelphia | 232 | 1.43 | 31.8 |
Cleveland | 239 | 1.32 | 31.8 |
Detroit | 234 | 1.38 | 31.7 |
Pittsburgh | 238 | 1.31 | 31.7 |
Tampa Bay | 236 | 1.34 | 31.7 |
NY Jets | 231 | 1.42 | 31.6 |
Kansas City | 235 | 1.34 | 31.6 |
Atlanta | 233 | 1.38 | 31.6 |
Miami | 232 | 1.38 | 31.5 |
Buffalo | 230 | 1.41 | 31.5 |
Minnesota | 231 | 1.38 | 31.4 |
Tennessee | 232 | 1.35 | 31.3 |
Dallas | 229 | 1.39 | 31.3 |
Washington | 229 | 1.34 | 31.0 |
New England | 227 | 1.36 | 30.9 |
LA Rams | 228 | 1.34 | 30.8 |
Arizona | 230 | 1.30 | 30.8 |
NY Giants | 225 | 1.36 | 30.6 |
Looking at rushing production, the three most favorable schedules project to belong to three teams in the NFC North: Packers, Vikings and Lions. The Dolphins, Seahawks and Bills project to play the worst schedules, for rushing purposes.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Pts |
Green Bay | 130 | 1.02 | 19.1 |
Minnesota | 128 | 1.03 | 19.0 |
Detroit | 129 | 1.01 | 19.0 |
Carolina | 129 | .98 | 18.8 |
Denver | 128 | .99 | 18.7 |
Chicago | 128 | .99 | 18.7 |
Atlanta | 127 | 1.00 | 18.6 |
Tennessee | 127 | .98 | 18.6 |
New Orleans | 127 | .97 | 18.5 |
Tampa Bay | 125 | .99 | 18.4 |
Kansas City | 124 | .95 | 18.1 |
Arizona | 123 | .91 | 17.8 |
Las Vegas | 124 | .89 | 17.7 |
Baltimore | 120 | .94 | 17.6 |
San Francisco | 122 | .88 | 17.5 |
Washington | 123 | .86 | 17.5 |
LA Rams | 120 | .90 | 17.4 |
Dallas | 122 | .86 | 17.4 |
Pittsburgh | 117 | .93 | 17.3 |
NY Jets | 121 | .82 | 17.0 |
Indianapolis | 118 | .85 | 16.9 |
Jacksonville | 116 | .87 | 16.8 |
LA Chargers | 116 | .86 | 16.8 |
Cincinnati | 115 | .87 | 16.7 |
Cleveland | 115 | .87 | 16.7 |
NY Giants | 119 | .80 | 16.7 |
New England | 119 | .79 | 16.6 |
Philadelphia | 119 | .77 | 16.5 |
Houston | 113 | .84 | 16.4 |
Buffalo | 117 | .76 | 16.3 |
Seattle | 113 | .83 | 16.2 |
Miami | 115 | .72 | 15.8 |
While these numbers are fun to look at, I don’t think they’re particularly meaningful. I don’t think they’ll correlate much with what’s going to happen, and we’re talking about differences on the margins anyway.
Just for giggles, below see the same charts from last year. Then ask yourself what you might have taken away that would have improved your draft for the 2022 season.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Aug. 2022) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
NY Giants | 252 | 1.67 | 35.2 |
Jacksonville | 255 | 1.60 | 35.1 |
Dallas | 248 | 1.69 | 35.0 |
Philadelphia | 248 | 1.64 | 34.6 |
Denver | 252 | 1.53 | 34.4 |
Buffalo | 248 | 1.58 | 34.2 |
Washington | 243 | 1.63 | 34.1 |
Chicago | 245 | 1.60 | 34.1 |
New England | 243 | 1.62 | 34.1 |
Carolina | 246 | 1.56 | 34.0 |
Green Bay | 244 | 1.58 | 33.9 |
Houston | 245 | 1.55 | 33.9 |
San Francisco | 244 | 1.56 | 33.8 |
Indianapolis | 248 | 1.49 | 33.7 |
LA Chargers | 244 | 1.56 | 33.7 |
Cleveland | 249 | 1.48 | 33.7 |
Tampa Bay | 243 | 1.57 | 33.7 |
Tennessee | 244 | 1.53 | 33.6 |
Atlanta | 244 | 1.54 | 33.6 |
Pittsburgh | 243 | 1.54 | 33.5 |
New Orleans | 242 | 1.55 | 33.5 |
Detroit | 240 | 1.57 | 33.4 |
Seattle | 241 | 1.56 | 33.4 |
Minnesota | 237 | 1.61 | 33.4 |
Arizona | 243 | 1.49 | 33.3 |
Cincinnati | 243 | 1.49 | 33.2 |
Las Vegas | 245 | 1.43 | 33.1 |
Kansas City | 243 | 1.42 | 32.9 |
LA Rams | 240 | 1.46 | 32.8 |
Miami | 238 | 1.46 | 32.6 |
Baltimore | 235 | 1.45 | 32.2 |
NY Jets | 236 | 1.43 | 32.2 |
Below see the rushing schedule difficulty chart heading into last year. The team with the easiest run schedule (Chicago) did, in fact, finish with big rushing numbers. But the two teams ranking at the bottom also had shredding run games for large chunks of the season.
While I wish I could say otherwise, I just don’t think there’s much to it.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Aug. 2022) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Pts |
Chicago | 121 | .99 | 18.1 |
Miami | 120 | 1.01 | 18.0 |
Indianapolis | 119 | .99 | 17.9 |
New Orleans | 119 | .99 | 17.8 |
Denver | 115 | 1.03 | 17.8 |
Tennessee | 118 | .99 | 17.7 |
Detroit | 119 | .93 | 17.5 |
Washington | 118 | .94 | 17.5 |
Green Bay | 118 | .94 | 17.4 |
Buffalo | 118 | .94 | 17.4 |
LA Chargers | 117 | .94 | 17.4 |
Jacksonville | 115 | .98 | 17.4 |
Seattle | 116 | .95 | 17.3 |
Baltimore | 117 | .92 | 17.3 |
Philadelphia | 118 | .88 | 17.1 |
Cleveland | 113 | .96 | 17.1 |
Dallas | 115 | .93 | 17.1 |
Minnesota | 117 | .89 | 17.0 |
Kansas City | 113 | .95 | 17.0 |
New England | 114 | .92 | 16.9 |
NY Jets | 116 | .88 | 16.9 |
Arizona | 113 | .92 | 16.9 |
NY Giants | 113 | .92 | 16.9 |
Las Vegas | 114 | .88 | 16.7 |
San Francisco | 113 | .88 | 16.6 |
Houston | 112 | .90 | 16.6 |
Cincinnati | 112 | .89 | 16.6 |
Tampa Bay | 112 | .88 | 16.5 |
LA Rams | 112 | .88 | 16.4 |
Pittsburgh | 109 | .91 | 16.4 |
Carolina | 112 | .85 | 16.3 |
Atlanta | 107 | .84 | 15.8 |
—Ian Allan