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Strength of schedule

Chargers have league's most pass-friendly schedule

Justin Herbert as a big new contract. He also has a schedule that looks favorable.

Based on how teams played last year, the Chargers will play the most pass-friendly schedule in the league (using standard fantasy scoring).

Other teams with favorable pass schedules including the Saints, Packers and Bengals. The Giants, Cardinals and Rams project to play the worst schedules (for passing purposes).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING
TeamYardsTDPPts
LA Chargers2421.4232.7
New Orleans2401.4532.7
Green Bay2411.4332.7
Cincinnati2411.4032.5
Indianapolis2411.3832.4
Houston2391.4132.3
Seattle2381.4032.2
Chicago2361.4432.2
Baltimore2381.3932.2
Jacksonville2381.3832.0
Las Vegas2341.4432.0
Carolina2351.4031.9
San Francisco2351.4131.9
Denver2341.4231.9
Philadelphia2321.4331.8
Cleveland2391.3231.8
Detroit2341.3831.7
Pittsburgh2381.3131.7
Tampa Bay2361.3431.7
NY Jets2311.4231.6
Kansas City2351.3431.6
Atlanta2331.3831.6
Miami2321.3831.5
Buffalo2301.4131.5
Minnesota2311.3831.4
Tennessee2321.3531.3
Dallas2291.3931.3
Washington2291.3431.0
New England2271.3630.9
LA Rams2281.3430.8
Arizona2301.3030.8
NY Giants2251.3630.6

Looking at rushing production, the three most favorable schedules project to belong to three teams in the NFC North: Packers, Vikings and Lions. The Dolphins, Seahawks and Bills project to play the worst schedules, for rushing purposes.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING
TeamYardsTDRPts
Green Bay1301.0219.1
Minnesota1281.0319.0
Detroit1291.0119.0
Carolina129.9818.8
Denver128.9918.7
Chicago128.9918.7
Atlanta1271.0018.6
Tennessee127.9818.6
New Orleans127.9718.5
Tampa Bay125.9918.4
Kansas City124.9518.1
Arizona123.9117.8
Las Vegas124.8917.7
Baltimore120.9417.6
San Francisco122.8817.5
Washington123.8617.5
LA Rams120.9017.4
Dallas122.8617.4
Pittsburgh117.9317.3
NY Jets121.8217.0
Indianapolis118.8516.9
Jacksonville116.8716.8
LA Chargers116.8616.8
Cincinnati115.8716.7
Cleveland115.8716.7
NY Giants119.8016.7
New England119.7916.6
Philadelphia119.7716.5
Houston113.8416.4
Buffalo117.7616.3
Seattle113.8316.2
Miami115.7215.8

While these numbers are fun to look at, I don’t think they’re particularly meaningful. I don’t think they’ll correlate much with what’s going to happen, and we’re talking about differences on the margins anyway.

Just for giggles, below see the same charts from last year. Then ask yourself what you might have taken away that would have improved your draft for the 2022 season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Aug. 2022)
TeamYardsTDPPts
NY Giants2521.6735.2
Jacksonville2551.6035.1
Dallas2481.6935.0
Philadelphia2481.6434.6
Denver2521.5334.4
Buffalo2481.5834.2
Washington2431.6334.1
Chicago2451.6034.1
New England2431.6234.1
Carolina2461.5634.0
Green Bay2441.5833.9
Houston2451.5533.9
San Francisco2441.5633.8
Indianapolis2481.4933.7
LA Chargers2441.5633.7
Cleveland2491.4833.7
Tampa Bay2431.5733.7
Tennessee2441.5333.6
Atlanta2441.5433.6
Pittsburgh2431.5433.5
New Orleans2421.5533.5
Detroit2401.5733.4
Seattle2411.5633.4
Minnesota2371.6133.4
Arizona2431.4933.3
Cincinnati2431.4933.2
Las Vegas2451.4333.1
Kansas City2431.4232.9
LA Rams2401.4632.8
Miami2381.4632.6
Baltimore2351.4532.2
NY Jets2361.4332.2

Below see the rushing schedule difficulty chart heading into last year. The team with the easiest run schedule (Chicago) did, in fact, finish with big rushing numbers. But the two teams ranking at the bottom also had shredding run games for large chunks of the season.

While I wish I could say otherwise, I just don’t think there’s much to it.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Aug. 2022)
TeamYardsTDRPts
Chicago121.9918.1
Miami1201.0118.0
Indianapolis119.9917.9
New Orleans119.9917.8
Denver1151.0317.8
Tennessee118.9917.7
Detroit119.9317.5
Washington118.9417.5
Green Bay118.9417.4
Buffalo118.9417.4
LA Chargers117.9417.4
Jacksonville115.9817.4
Seattle116.9517.3
Baltimore117.9217.3
Philadelphia118.8817.1
Cleveland113.9617.1
Dallas115.9317.1
Minnesota117.8917.0
Kansas City113.9517.0
New England114.9216.9
NY Jets116.8816.9
Arizona113.9216.9
NY Giants113.9216.9
Las Vegas114.8816.7
San Francisco113.8816.6
Houston112.9016.6
Cincinnati112.8916.6
Tampa Bay112.8816.5
LA Rams112.8816.4
Pittsburgh109.9116.4
Carolina112.8516.3
Atlanta107.8415.8

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index