Strength of schedule tends to be used primarily as an offensive tool. What quarterbacks will face the leakiest secondaries? And which running backs will run against the softest defenses. But it can also be used to gauge which defenses are most likely to come through.
There are quarterbacks, after all that don’t tend to give up many sacks and turnovers – think Patrick Mahomes and probably Justin Herbert. The odds for a defense go way up when it’s lined up against somebody like Justin Fields or Baker Mayfield.
So why not estimate the the relative strengths of each offense – which ones will tend to allow the most sacks and takeaways – and then plug those numbers in the 2023 schedule? That should provide an estimate of which defenses should be helped out some by schedule.
The first step involves making an initial estimate of each offense. For this, I’m looking at production from recent seasons for players and teams, along with personnel and scheme changes made in the offseason. I’ve got Detroit, Kansas City, Miami and Dallas as the worst matchups (for defenses), while offenses that should tend to give up the most sacks and takeaways include the Cardinals, Bears, Commanders, Titans and Rams.
| ESTIMATED OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Int | Fum | Sack | F Pts |
| Detroit | 10.0 | 7.5 | 30 | 65.0 |
| Kansas City | 11.0 | 9.3 | 25 | 65.6 |
| Miami | 13.0 | 8.0 | 28 | 70.0 |
| Dallas | 12.0 | 8.0 | 33 | 73.0 |
| LA Chargers | 11.5 | 8.0 | 34 | 73.0 |
| Jacksonville | 10.5 | 10.5 | 32 | 74.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 11.0 | 7.5 | 37 | 74.0 |
| San Francisco | 12.5 | 8.3 | 35 | 76.6 |
| Denver | 10.5 | 7.5 | 41 | 77.0 |
| NY Jets | 11.5 | 8.5 | 38 | 78.0 |
| Philadelphia | 10.0 | 8.5 | 41 | 78.0 |
| New Orleans | 12.5 | 8.5 | 37 | 79.0 |
| Cincinnati | 12.2 | 7.7 | 43 | 82.8 |
| Atlanta | 13.0 | 9.5 | 38 | 83.0 |
| Houston | 13.0 | 9.0 | 39 | 83.0 |
| Las Vegas | 14.0 | 9.0 | 38 | 84.0 |
| New England | 13.5 | 9.0 | 39 | 84.0 |
| Buffalo | 14.5 | 11.0 | 34 | 85.0 |
| Carolina | 14.0 | 9.0 | 40 | 86.0 |
| Green Bay | 14.5 | 9.5 | 38 | 86.0 |
| Minnesota | 14.0 | 8.3 | 42 | 86.6 |
| Seattle | 12.7 | 9.5 | 44 | 88.4 |
| Cleveland | 12.0 | 8.5 | 48 | 89.0 |
| Baltimore | 14.3 | 9.5 | 43 | 90.6 |
| NY Giants | 12.5 | 10.5 | 46 | 92.0 |
| Indianapolis | 15.3 | 10.5 | 42 | 93.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 15.0 | 10.0 | 44 | 94.0 |
| LA Rams | 16.0 | 9.8 | 43 | 94.6 |
| Tennessee | 14.0 | 11.0 | 49 | 99.0 |
| Washington | 15.5 | 10.3 | 48 | 99.6 |
| Chicago | 14.5 | 10.7 | 51 | 101.4 |
| Arizona | 16.5 | 11.0 | 50 | 105.0 |
If we then plug those numbers into the schedule, they suggest the 49ers, Falcons, Steelers and Saints should play the most favorable schedules. Not that those necessarily will be the best defenses, but they’ll be facing the offenses that tend to commit more mistakes. San Francisco (with Nick Bosa) and Pittsburgh have defenses you might have been thinking of anyway, making them look more compelling.
The Raiders project to play the least favorable schedule. More notably, the three other defenses just behind Las Vegas are all groups that probably will be selected in the top 10 in fantasy drafts. These numbers suggest they should perhaps be downgraded a few notches.
In the chart below, numbers indicate the number of interceptions, fumbles and sacks an average defense might accrue in the first 16 games of the season. (Most fantasy leagues conclude before Week 18, so I didn’t include those games). The final column shows the fantasy points using 2 points for takeaways and 1 for every sack.
| DEFENSIVE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-16) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Int | Fum | Sack | F Pts |
| San Francisco | 13.3 | 9.4 | 43.0 | 88.4 |
| Atlanta | 13.7 | 9.6 | 41.5 | 88.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 13.5 | 9.3 | 42.1 | 87.7 |
| New Orleans | 13.7 | 9.6 | 41.1 | 87.6 |
| LA Rams | 13.3 | 9.3 | 42.4 | 87.6 |
| Cleveland | 13.1 | 9.3 | 41.7 | 86.4 |
| Houston | 12.9 | 9.4 | 41.4 | 86.1 |
| Arizona | 13.1 | 9.1 | 41.7 | 86.1 |
| Seattle | 13.2 | 9.1 | 41.5 | 86.0 |
| Indianapolis | 13.1 | 9.4 | 40.7 | 85.6 |
| Cincinnati | 13.3 | 9.4 | 40.2 | 85.6 |
| Philadelphia | 13.6 | 9.4 | 39.4 | 85.3 |
| Jacksonville | 13.3 | 9.3 | 39.7 | 84.9 |
| Washington | 12.8 | 9.3 | 40.5 | 84.8 |
| Detroit | 13.3 | 9.2 | 39.8 | 84.7 |
| NY Giants | 13.5 | 9.2 | 39.2 | 84.6 |
| Dallas | 12.9 | 9.2 | 39.8 | 84.1 |
| Baltimore | 12.8 | 8.9 | 40.3 | 83.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 13.0 | 9.4 | 38.9 | 83.6 |
| Carolina | 13.1 | 9.3 | 38.9 | 83.6 |
| Tennessee | 13.0 | 9.1 | 39.4 | 83.6 |
| Miami | 12.7 | 9.2 | 39.1 | 82.9 |
| Chicago | 13.0 | 8.9 | 39.1 | 82.8 |
| Minnesota | 12.8 | 9.0 | 39.0 | 82.4 |
| Green Bay | 12.7 | 8.8 | 38.6 | 81.7 |
| LA Chargers | 12.9 | 9.0 | 38.0 | 81.6 |
| NY Jets | 12.7 | 9.1 | 37.1 | 80.7 |
| Denver | 12.8 | 9.0 | 36.9 | 80.6 |
| Buffalo | 12.4 | 8.9 | 37.9 | 80.4 |
| Kansas City | 12.4 | 8.8 | 38.0 | 80.4 |
| New England | 12.6 | 9.0 | 36.5 | 79.8 |
| Las Vegas | 12.5 | 8.9 | 36.5 | 79.4 |
—Ian Allan