With the season less than a month away, I wanted to put out a little draft strategy article to help us all make sure we have our heads on straight going into drafts. If this is your first time drafting, this will hopefully help you feel less overwhelmed, and if this is your 21st season drafting – well hey, a refresher probably couldn’t hurt!
Maximizing Value
Your fantasy draft is about getting as much talent on to your team as possible (simple enough, right?) Well, in order to do that you ideally go into your draft with two things: Your own rankings of players by each position (like the Fantasy Index draft Cheat Sheet), and some idea of the average draft position, or ADP, of these players. These are the two key criteria for identifying value in your draft; ADP is what the market says a player is worth, and your cheat sheet is your internal valuation of a player.
Perfect example: Justin Fields, who is currently the QB7 by ADP on the Sleeper fantasy app, meaning he is typically the seventh quarterback selected in drafts on Sleeper right now. By contrast, Fields is our currently our QB13. This means that someone using our rankings will almost definitely not pick Fields. Conversely, we have Justin Herbert ranked above his ADP – we think Herbert is a good value relative to where he is generally going and you can even ‘reach’ to take him slightly earlier than that and we still think you will come out ahead.
Whether you use the Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet, a homemade version or some combination of the two it is definitely a good idea to establish your own top 30 or so players at each position before you walk into your draft. Relying on ADP alone is like putting groceries in the cart without even looking at the sale price – you might wind up with a couple of good deals, but probably not as many as if you had been value-conscious from the start.
Positional Scarcity & League Scoring
Value is, of course, a relative term, and another component to keep in frame as you work your way down your draft board is the positional scarcity created by your league’s settings. I play in a couple of leagues, for example, where we start two running backs and three wide receivers, but another where we start only two receivers. The ‘Zero RB’ (being one of the last teams to take your first running back) or ‘Hero RB’ (one of the last teams to select your second running back) strategies are more attractive in my receiver-heavy leagues, because I know going into the draft that the lineup settings are going to push teams to to after that position more aggressively (devaluing running backs). I am going to be less comfortable with that strategy in my league with two backs and two receivers (unless I’m just overwhelmed by the WRs falling to me).
Another component of scarcity is whether your league is full PPR (point per reception), half-PPR or standard (with no points for receptions). Obviously certain players are going to be more or less valuable depending on your scoring format, but in the first round of standard scoring leagues there are really a variety of running backs to consider just about wherever you’re picking – whereas if you are picking first in a full PPR league and want to take a running back, your sensible options are really only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler.
Every draft is unique and there are just about always going to be an unexpected decision or two that find their way to your doorstep, so keeping player scarcity and league scoring in mind can help see you through to the right answer for extracting value with every draft pick.
Read the Room
One facet of drafting that sometimes gets overlooked is knowing the competition. I live in the Dallas area. As you might expect there are several Cowboys fans in the league, and as you also might expect, this means Dallas players almost always get drafted above their ADP. This means If I have the 6th pick in the second round of our 10-team league and I want to draft Tony Pollard (pictured), ADP might tell me Pollard will go about 25th, so I should be able to wait to get him in the third round – but if there are multiple Cowboys fans between me and my third-round selection, I know it’s pretty much now or never. I have also noticed over the last few years a sort of knock-on effect of the concentration of Cowboys fans: Eagles, Giants and Commanders’ players usually go later than their ADP (sometimes much later.)
You certainly won’t necessarily have this level of ‘inside scoop’ on your league to be able to capitalize on, but unless you are new to a league it is worth keeping in mind the players you are drafting against and allowing yourself a few ‘hunches’ on what they might do at various points in the draft – especially the ones picking next to you on the board.
Go With Your Gut
And lastly, just remember that you do not have to make a pick that you really dislike just because a buddy, a podcaster or a cheat sheet said that you should – the only thing worse than going down with the ship on a guy you loved is doing it with a guy somebody else sold you on. Just about everybody wants to win their league every year; most will come up short. A team with more players that you like or are excited about will generally make for a more memorable and more fun season, so if there is a guy or two you ‘just have a feeling about’ – go get ‘em!
—Luke Wilson
Luke Wilson is the host of the Fantasy Index Podcast. He is not related to former Seattle Seahawks tight end Luke Willson.