Fantasy Index

Andy Richardson

August 14, 2023

Justin Jefferson on down

Recapping the PPR Draft

I'm currently participating in one of the FanEx Experts Drafts, a slow draft that plays out over a couple of weeks prior to the season. We're into Round 11, and I thought I'd post a recap of how things have gone so far. Regrets...I have a few.

I drew the No. 3 pick, and certainly there's a lot to be said for that. I believe there are about 5-6 elite players, and then after they're gone a sameness settles into the next dozen or so picks (Pick 1.7 doesn't strike me as clearly better than 1.12 or 2.3). So I was able to get one of those guys. The negative is that by the time the draft made it back to me at 2.10, it didn't feel like there any legit second-rounders left; the guy I picked didn't seem much better than what I took a round later. So I wish I'd drawn the 6th pick or so -- get one of the top players, and also one of the really good 2nd-rounders. My opinion, some will feel differently.

The top 2 picks were Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase, as expected. At No. 3, I was going to go with Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler, the top 2 PPR running backs. Had I gone wide receiver, I'd have taken Tyreek Hill, and in retrospect -- with the rest of the top 12 wide receivers going before my pick at 2.10 -- I think I wish I had. At 2.10, there were no wide receivers I thought merited that spot, so I went with Najee Harris, one of three running backs I'd have considered there.

A note on the two running backs I selected. I've seen people lament McCaffrey as injury prone. Certainly he had a couple of bad years, but he was healthy for 20 games a year ago. Simple fact is that everyone of the top running backs is an injury risk (or holdout risk, or disgruntled risk, or whatever). The fact that McCaffrey was hurt in 2021, to me, does not make him any more likely to get hurt in 2023 than Ekeler.

With Najee, while he is perhaps not an elite talent, I trust his usage, involvement and situation. Mike Tomlin has a reliable history of featuring one back (to a fault, LeVeon might say), and Harris has proven he can handle it his first two seasons. Clean backup I can probably get later in Jaylen Warren, too. I'm concerned about the Josh Jacobs situation, so I opted for the lesser talent in Harris.

By taking two running backs, I kind of forced myself into wide receivers with my next two picks. Perhaps I should have gone with Christian Watson over Jerry Jeudy (our rankings say as much); in any case I thought I'd get Watson at 5.03. When I didn't, I opted for Joe Burrow (not concerned about his calf injury). I think he's the No. 4 quarterback, I got him as the 7th.

We love Pacheco; arguable whether it's too much. I could maybe have let him slide another round or two; we'll never know. Starting running backs were getting very thin; I took him as the 29th one off the board. The next three to go were all No. 2s. Took Evan Engram who we have as a top-5 tight end. Since only one tight end went in the next two rounds, in retrospet I wish I'd taken a wide receiver, probably Drake London. Rounds 5-7, I think, require you to make a choice between a really good tight end and one of the last good wide receivers. If you go WR, you probably won't like the TE you take, and vice versa. That's how it seems to me, anyway.

Next two picks, I don't love. Having taken just 2 wide receivers to this point, I absolutely had to take at least one and arguably two. I really wanted George Pickens, but he went a few picks before my selection. I loaded up Marquise Brown and Odell Beckham, in that order, two picks before my selection. Brown went one pick before, so Beckham it is. With 41 wide receivers gone, he was the best left (I still feel this way). But I wish my No. 3 was one of the guys who went 30-40. I don't doubt Beckham will be Baltimore's best wideout -- if he stays healthy. And I don't feel great that that will happen.

Romeo Doubs, similarly, was the best left at that next pick. I think he's underrated; could very well be similarly productive to Christian Watson.

Finally, in Round 10 I raced to the podium to select Kenneth Gainwell. I think he's starting in Philadelphia, and he'll be involved as a receiver. I have zero interest in D'Andre Swift this year. The Lions know him best and they gave him away for a mid-round draft pick two years from now.

Results are below, with my picks in bold. As I've said, I'm not in love with my team. I wish I had a better No. 3 wide receiver, and maybe a better No. 2. It's a position I'll be hitting a lot in the later rounds, hoping to uncover a breakout player. There are some options; it'll be fine. Regardless, questions and/or criticism welcome, I can handle it.

FANEX DRAFT RESULTS
PICKPLAYER
1.01Justin Jefferson
1.02Ja'Marr Chase
1.03Christian McCaffrey
1.04Tyreek Hill
1.05Austin Ekeler
1.06Travis Kelce
1.07Cooper Kupp
1.08Bijan Robinson
1.09Stefon Diggs
1.10Nick Chubb
1.11CeeDee Lamb
1.12Saquon Barkley
2.01Jonathan Taylor
2.02Derrick Henry
2.03Tony Pollard
2.04Davante Adams
2.05A.J. Brown
2.06Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.07Garrett Wilson
2.08Jaylen Waddle
2.09Calvin Ridley
2.10Najee Harris
2.11Travis Etienne
2.12Josh Jacobs
3.01Mark Andrews
3.02DeVonta Smith
3.03Tee Higgins
3.04Chris Olave
3.05Rhamondre Stevenson
3.06Keenan Allen
3.07Joe Mixon
3.08Patrick Mahomes
3.09Aaron Jones
3.10Jahmyr Gibbs
3.11DK Metcalf
3.12Deebo Samuel
4.01Josh Allen
4.02Lamar Jackson
4.03Jalen Hurts
4.04Breece Hall
4.05D.J. Moore
4.06Justin Fields
4.07Kenneth Walker
4.08Amari Cooper
4.09Miles Sanders
4.10Jerry Jeudy
4.11Dameon Pierce
4.12Christian Watson
5.01J.K. Dobbins
5.02Justin Herbert
5.03Joe Burrow
5.04Dallas Goedert
5.05Terry McLaurin
5.06James Conner
5.07Christian Kirk
5.08Cam Akers
5.09George Kittle
5.10DeAndre Hopkins
5.11Rachaad White
5.12T.J. Hockenson
6.01Mike Evans
6.02Alvin Kamara
6.03Brandon Aiyuk
6.04Trevor Lawrence
6.05Alexander Mattison
6.06Darren Waller
6.07James Cook
6.08Javonte Williams
6.09David Montgomery
6.10Isiah Pacheco
6.11Diontae Johnson
6.12Chris Godwin
7.01Michael Pittman
7.02Kyle Pitts
7.03Evan Engram
7.04Kirk Cousins
7.05Brandin Cooks
7.06Drake London
7.07D'Andre Swift
7.08Tyler Lockett
7.09Dalvin Cook
7.10Gabriel Davis
7.11Courtland Sutton
7.12AJ Dillon
8.01Mike Williams
8.02Pat Freiermuth
8.03George Pickens
8.04Jaxon Smith-Njigba
8.05JuJu Smith-Schuster
8.06Jahan Dotson
8.07Daniel Jones
8.08Dak Prescott
8.09Marquise Brown
8.10Odell Beckham
8.11Khalil Herbert
8.12Brian Robinson
9.01Geno Smith
9.02Jordan Addison
9.03Romeo Doubs
9.04Jerick McKinnon
9.05Tua Tagovailoa
9.06Deshaun Watson
9.07Antonio Gibson
9.08Zach Charbonnet
9.09Zay Jones
9.10Devon Achane
9.11Aaron Rodgers
9.12Devin Singletary
10.01Jakobi Meyers
10.02K.J. Osborn
10.03Skyy Moore
10.04Raheem Mostert
10.05Michael Thomas
10.06Samaje Perine
10.07Zay Flowers
10.08David Njoku
10.09Allen Lazard
10.10Kenneth Gainwell
10.11Dalton Schultz
10.12D.J. Chark
fantasy drafts

11 Reader Comments:

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2023-08-14T17:04:33Z
Looks like a nice haul to me, Andy. While it would've been nice to maybe get an A. J. Brown or someone else in that range, the 2 RBs are still really leaned-on by their head coaches in an era where division of labor is where the rest of the league is headed, and that's a big advantage, I think.
About Gainwell - would you mind sharing your insights on him? I'd never have anticipated him being their RB1.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-08-14T17:21:50Z
He’s the holdover who knows the system. He’s the one they leaned on last postseason (played more and more yards than Sanders). And Penny and Swift are arguably the two biggest injury concerns in the NFL. Maybe the Lions are a bunch of idiots, but unless they simply ignored better offers, no NFL team wanted to give up more than a 2025 4th-rounder for Swift.

Tavis Medrano

Arcadia, CA
2023-08-14T17:37:17Z
I feel your pain Ian... I had the seventh pick in a draft Friday night and the draft went Kelce, Jefferson, Chase, Kupp, Bijon Robinson, CMac which blew my mind considering its standard scoring! But sitting there at 7 I saw no difference between Henry, Chubb, etc. In retrospect I also should have taken Hill because I wound up taking Pollard, Jones, Pachecko and Penny in rounds 2,3,5,6 - oh well I guess I have trade bait!

Tom Deskovitz

South Lyon, MI
2023-08-14T21:43:40Z
Maybe the Lions are a bunch of idiots? As a lifelong fan, there is no "maybe" about it. As further proof, I think Swift is going to surprise some people this season, managing to stay healthy and productive in a contract year.

Mike Gibbons

Riva, MD
2023-08-14T22:21:09Z
Still can not figure out why my custom scoring ranks QB's so high, it has Mahomes the #2 pick overall and 5 QB's in top 20. I realize we award 6 points for ALL TD's by QB but 3.08 in your draft seems like really big gap. We are 1/2PPR

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-08-14T23:32:51Z
Before you receive your fantasy experts card, you have to sign a document saying you will never draft a quarterback before the third round. I’m joking, but year after year quarterbacks, go later in experts drafts than they will in any local draft and some national ones too. I don’t really have a good answer. Beyond that many experts feel they can get by without an elite quarterback, or at least they have for as long as I can remember, cobbling together good weeks from modest veterans like Cousins or Carr. If you know the people in your league won’t be selecting a quarterback early you don’t have to either. And maybe that’s maybe that’s the answer: most experts know other experts won’t take one early.

Rich Giandrea

Audubon, NJ
2023-08-15T14:20:42Z
Hello Andy and my fantasy brothers. In my 2 point PPR Lg, I kept RB Ekeler and WR St. Brown. I have currently own pick 1.1 and will have the choice of both Tyreek Hill and Bijan. What are your thgts? So tempted to get in on this hype of Bijan, and I do actually believe he is gonna be a solid producer as rookie with the Falcs lining him up all over the place, but how can I pass up Tyreek Hill in that spot?

Ron Knott

Renton, WA
2023-08-15T14:40:11Z
Thanks for posting! With all the crazy ADPs I am seeing using countess different sources I am starting to think drafts like this make for a better ADP to compare my rankings so I can build a final draft list.

Steven Hecker

Powell, OH
2023-08-15T17:09:00Z
I'm with you Mike. My league also has 6-PT passing TDs and top 20 includes 5 QBs while only 5 RBs. If one includes 5 QBs, Andy would have had a decent WR for his second pick. I will no doubt take CMC or Ekeler with my first round pick if available. Kelce also. QB would be after the top 3WRs, 2 RBs and TE are gone. Mahommes as the 2nd or 3rd pick? I can't pull that trigger.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2023-08-16T11:37:19Z
Rich, if you take Bijan, can you keep him forever? Given the relative ages, I can understand taking Bijan over Tyreek there. But if we're just talking say this year and next year, I'd rather have Tyreek.

Rich Giandrea

Audubon, NJ
2023-08-19T03:16:12Z
Andy, thanks for the response. This Lg only allows us to keep a player for 3 seasons, I wouldn’t own Bijan forever. However, if the kid is gonna get the opportunities early and often and he is that special, 3 seasons is a long time. One thing to keep in mind is that I have a few extra draft pks this season that should help put me in a decent shot to contend. So, moment of truth. Bijan or Tyreek to go along with Ekeler and St. Brown outta the gate? Thks again!
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