Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Fantasy Index's artificially inflateIan d grade on Jameson Williams. Players who'll break out in 2024. Home-field advantage for kickers. And more.
Question 1
Looking at your PPR ranking of Jameson Williams, you project him getting 167 points over an 11-game season after his suspension. That would put him in the top 10 on a per game, basis ahead of some great established WRs. Is your conviction in him really that high and does that make him worth a bench stash despite the 6-game suspension?
John Legg (Kansas City, MO)
I have some interest in Williams, I think when he comes back, there’s some chance he’ll be a top-30 receiver, hitting on some big plays. I think that makes him worth considering maybe 55 wide receivers into the draft. But please don’t read too much into stat projection number. With these guys like Williams, I have to put my thumb on the scale to get them to show up in the desired area of the rankings. (If we give Williams credit only for the 11 games he’s going to play, he won’t be drafted in most leagues.)
Question 2
I'm curious to see if I'm setting up my custom scoring profile to maximize results based on our league rules regarding running backs and wide receivers. 10 man, 1/2 PPR league with a 20 round draft. We start two backs and three receivers along with a flex. Is there anything I can do in the Auction Values section (or elsewhere) to account for the fact that I'll likely be starting 3-4 receivers a week against only two backs? Currently, I have 65 total backs being drafted with 45 going for more than the minimum. And 80 receivers getting drafted with 55 going for more than the minimum. Do those numbers seem reasonable?
Jeffrey Damiani (Ashland, MA)
Let’s put it this way. You’re saying 45 running backs are worth more the minimum. Gainwell, Allgeier, Mostert and Damien Harris are all in the top 45. Are those guys really worth more than the min? Or would you think you might be replacing guys like that with waiver wire pickups before the end of September? Answers can vary based on league formats, but I would say let’s lower it to 40 running backs. You’re telling the rankings machine, “I’ll be able to find 115 points at the running back position”, when it used to be, “I can find 103 points”. At wide receiver, the 55th guy is JuJu (projected at 127 points) I would agree that he’s worth just a tiny bit more than the minimum. The next three receivers are K.J. Osborn, Skyy Moore and Darnell Mooney, all slotted at about 120 points. I would agree that they are are rosterable but are not worth more than the min. I think you have it right there. Keep in mind with this system that seemingly minor changes to afterthought players can change things significantly. If I upgrade a lesser wide receiver to 130 points, for example, Smith-Schuster would get bumped down to the 56 spot. He would then become the baseline player at his position in your league, causing all wide receivers above him to drop by 7 points in value – it would change the ordering in the first few rounds. Particularly in your league, you’ll want to keep an eye on those baseline players at RB and WR before looking at the overall list.
Question 3
Is there any data that suggests kickers score more at home or away?
Eric Kiser (Tampa, FL)
Thank you for writing. Always good to get a question from the small subset of us who care about the art of placekicking. They’ve got some cool search tools at pro-football-reference.com. They indicate that there’s no meaningful difference. Over the last 10 years, home teams have kicked 65 more field goals than visitors. That’s an average of 6.5 per season, which isn’t significant when considering we’re talking about stats taken from 2,607 games. In each of the last four years, road teams have kicked more field goals, perhaps indicating that home-field advantage isn’t quite what it used to be.
| FIELD GOALS BY VENUE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Home | Away | |
| 2013 | 443 | 420 | 512 |
| 2014 | 423 | 406 | 512 |
| 2015 | 422 | 412 | 512 |
| 2016 | 425 | 423 | 512 |
| 2017 | 452 | 414 | 512 |
| 2018 | 413 | 389 | 512 |
| 2019 | 386 | 416 | 512 |
| 2020 | 399 | 413 | 544 |
| 2021 | 436 | 438 | 544 |
| 2022 | 450 | 453 | 544 |
Question 4
I consider your busts (in “Sleepers, Busts & Hidden Gems”) to be one of my favorite parts of your publication. At our auction, I tee-up the list of “busts” and start by nominating them. The result is beautiful, with bust players going for big bucks as drafts begin.
JK Goode (Clarksville, TN)
A solid strategy, and I have done the same. But one also must be ready for opposite, when one must decide whether to make a good buy early or wait for a better deal? I’ve been in a half-dozen of those auctions. Most recently (in the magazine), I tossed out Trevor Lawrence as the first quarterback, trying to shake the money tree. I wasn’t ready to buy him for $12, thinking I’d get one of the elite quarterbacks for just a few bucks more. I ended up suffering through all of the other top-level quarterbacks before having to pay $22 for the last one (Herbert).
Question 5
Can you please provide 4-5 players you believe will be ranked far higher next year than they are this year? (Guys who will jump at least 15 spots in their respective 2024 positional rankings). I am in a league that allows 2 keepers, so I would like to target a couple of guys whose values will increase due to either expected increased opportunity and/or projected talent development. Thanks.
Joe Cartan (San Francisco, CA)
Quentin Johnston and Rashee Rice. Those are the two guys I’d really be looking at. I think they’ll be mixed in some this year, contributing some plays, with the potential to head into next season being counted on to big big-time pass catchers. With the Chargers could move on from Keenan Allen or Mike Williams (shedding salary), and Johnston is more explosive than those guys regardless. Rice had a real nice game at Arizona, looking like he could be the guy who eventually emerges from the pack of wide receiver in KC. Other rookies to consider: Jalin Hyatt, Tyjae Spears, Marvin Mims, Puka Nacua, Jonathan Mingo, Tank Dell.
Question 6
What about taking Darren Waller in the 5th round? It seems like he's going to be heavily involved in the offense there, but he is 30 with a recent injury history.
Brian Boyd (Maple Grove, MN)
Agreed. Looks like he’s going to catch a ton of balls. Daniel Jones threw 9 passes in the game against the Panthers, and Waller was the intended target on 4 of them (including the first 3). Personally, this is disappointing, since I’ve been throwing shade on Waller for most of the offense, but I have adjusted by board to what appears to be happening there.
Question 7
My league allows only 20 moves for the whole year, and we have only 6 bench slots. How would this influence a draft board?
Mark Rapley (Rosemount, MN)
Let’s get guys we know we can count on. Players who tend to miss games with injuries, let’s let somebody take on that risk. Thinking of Kittle, Dobbins, Tua, Conner, Deebo, Burks and the holdout running backs.
Question 8
Okay we are getting into the last days of preseason and drafts are becoming real and not just mock. With that in mind, would you or the "experts" be willing to list your top 3 busts and top 3 breakouts in full PPR leagues for the 2023 season?
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
Andy does that “Ask The Experts” column that appears each Thursday. I expect we’ll be seeing that question soon. You know me, I’ve been holding steady on Pacheco, Montgomery and Walker all summer.
Question 9
I'm in 14 team PPR league, all touchdowns are worth 6 points. The league use a snake format, I'm picking 2nd overall. Who would you take at #2 overall and any ideas for round 2 pick 13? Round 3 pick 2? Thanks!
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
It seems like the talent runs thing at receiver faster than it does at running back. I would be inclined to take one of those franchise receives with the No. 2 pick, then see what’s left for you in the second round.
Question 10
I'm in a league that provides equal points for rushing, receiving and return yardage. Do you know of a good resource for factoring in the return yardage? If not, do you have any suggestions?
Richard Hunkins (LAS VEGAS, NV)
I like the stats posted at pro-football-reference. Looking at their 2022 leaders, I see 14 players who averaged at least a return per game who finished with over 1,000 yards. But not really one that I’m excited about for this year. Maybe Rashid Shaheed, but he’ll be just the third receiver for New Orleans – hamstring injury, and I’m not certainly he’ll play as much this year. Braxton Berrios will return punts for the Dolphins, but I don’t think his receiver role will be substantial enough. (I would actually be more excited about DeVon Achane, who’ll return kickoffs and serve as a change-of-pace back. Calvin Austin caught a long touchdown at Tampa Bay and had a long punt return last year; he might get on the radar. If I were you, I’d skim through the boxscores of last preseason games, checking to see who returned kicks initially. If you find anybody who’ll also play some as regular players, they would become viable prospects.
Question 11
Love the info you send. Who of the big three QB scores the most? We score 6 points for all passing TDs and 12 for TD runs, with 1 point every 10 rushing and 1 point every 25 passing.
Alex Long (Kennewick, WA)
Interesting format, with a slight bump to the guys who can move. I think you’ll be looking at Mahomes-Hurts-Allen as the top 3. With the rushing rules, I would elevate Fields and Daniel Jones into the bottom of my top 10. (But ADP suggests Fields will be long gone by that point.)
Question 12
I am in a PPR league that awards 6 points for passing TDs and 1 point for every completion. Is it possible to incorporate that into the custom ranking?
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
NFL teams averaged 11 yards per completion last year. So if plug in 1 point for every 11 yards in the custom rankings setup, I think that will work just fine.
Question 13
Hi Ian, I'm coming up on a 12-team, 20-round, half-point PPR snake draft and I was "lucky" enough to pick the 12-spot. I imported my league settings into another site and have been mock-drafting like crazy to get a feel for who might be available every time at the turn. I've kept a running tally of all the players I most often select and wanted to get your take on this method. There seems to be more predictability when doing these mock drafts and I know when draft day arrives there will certainly be more surprises. How far would you reach for a player at certain points in the draft if you were in my position?
Bryan Teegardin (Rochester, NY)
There's some running backs I think will slide -- Walker, Pacheco, Montgomery -- I would look to pick a pair of WRs with those first two picks, probably getting the RBs later.