This is a tough spot for the Patriots. The Cowboys are playing at home, and they’ll probably finish the season with a top-5 defense.
They laid an egg last week in Arizona, and that ensures they won’t be looking past the Patriots to next week’s showdown against the 49ers.
Dallas allowed only one touchdown in the first two weeks of the season, while the Patriots are averaging only 2 TDs per week (3 in their opener against the Eagles, and only 3 in the last eight quarters against the Dolphins and Jets). About 2 TDs seems like the right number. … Mac Jones is fine. He's averaging 249 passing yards, with 5 TDs and 2 interceptions. He’s completing 65 percent of his passes. But this looks like the kind of defense that could give him all kinds of problems. With limited mobility, he’ll likely have problems with that pass rush.
Jones was able to navigate a similarly good Jets defense, but the Patriots didn’t need to do much in that game. With New York not doing anything offensively, Jones completed only 15 of 29 passes for 201 yards, with no sacks or interceptions. The Cowboys have a lot more ability to put some points on the board. That would force Jones to try to shoot his way back into the game, with everything then falling apart. Maybe Jones throws for 230-250 yards with a touchdown or two but with enhanced potential for sacks and interceptions.
… A week ago at this time, we would have called New England’s running game a nothing burger. They ran for under 90 yards against both the Eagles and Dolphins. The Cowboys, meanwhile, held Saquon Barkley to only 51 rushing yards and both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook under 10. But the Patriots took a step forward against the Jets, banging out 157 rushing yards, while the Cowboys allowed 222 in their shocking loss at Arizona. So some chance, it seems, that the Patriots patiently stick with the run, finishing with above-average rushing numbers. (Certainly, they don’t want to give the Cowboys too many pass-rushing opportunities.)
It’s a combo backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson is their starter and best back, but this seems like a week where Ezekiel Elliott might finish with better numbers. Elliott spent the first seven years of his career in Dallas, making this a big game for him. If the ball winds up near the goal line, they’ll probably be more inclined than usual to use him. And he’ll probably play more in general. He’s been playing well anyway, averaging a yard and a half more per carry than Stevenson.
Three weeks in, Stevenson is averaging 45 rushing yards per game, but at just 2.9 per attempt. Elliott is averaging 41 yards per week at 4.4 per carry. Stevenson is the better and more productive pass catcher (his 10 catches have gone for 77 yards, while Elliott has caught 6 passes for 21 yards). Should be a one-two punch this week, with Elliott having a decent chance of finishing with better overall numbers. (With Dallas being tough defensively, we’re not crazy about either of them.) …
We’re not crazy about the wide receivers. There doesn’t seem to be much difference between them. JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, and Kendrick Bourne are all modest veterans. Smith-Schuster has the largest contract, but Bourne so far has over twice as many receiving yards and a 2-0 edge in touchdowns. Running short, possession routes, Smith-Schuster has caught only 10 passes for 66 yards. Parker tends to line up outside, with more potential to run downfield routes, but unlikely he does much against this defense. Parker has caught 8 passes for 76 yards in two games, with no touchdowns. Based on current form, we’re ranking Bourne the highest. …
Hunter Henry might be the team’s best and most trusted pass catcher. He’s caught 13 passes for 125 yards and 2 TDs. But this is a tough defense, especially against tight ends. Darren Waller caught 3 passes for 36 yards against this group, while Tyler Conklin caught a credible 5 for 50. Zach Ertz caught 2 for 6 yards on Sunday. Dallas hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass to a tight end. … The Patriots have a second tight end who’ll also be involved. Mike Gesicki caught only 1 pass on Sunday, but he caught 8 for 69 in their first two games. There will be weeks that he shows up in the game plan. (Last week, it was a third tight end who finished with the best numbers, with Pharaoh Brown surprising the Jets on a 58-yard touchdown – Brown is usually a blocker.) …
Given the matchup, we have no interest in Chad Ryland. The Cowboys have allowed a league-low 8 kicking points so far, while Ryland has scored only 14 points in his first three games. … The Patriots' Defense finished last season with 54 sacks and 30 takeaways, including 7 returned for touchdowns, but it seems like a modest choice this week. The Cowboys are playing a different style of offense this year, with more of a premium on taking care of the ball. Dak Prescott has taken only 3 sacks, with 1 interception in the first three weeks. With tough matchups so far against Philly and Miami, the Patriots have only 7 sacks and 1 pick.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 4 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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