Whatever you may think of Washington's offense, makes sense to rank their players a lot higher than usual this week.
The Bears have been a disaster defensively, allowing 3.5 touchdowns and 34 points per game while arguably facing only one top-level offense (Kansas City; the others are Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Denver). And while Washington got shut down by Buffalo, it averages 29 points in its other contests. The Commanders should score in the high 20s again here. They won 12-7 at Chicago early last season, but it's a better offense now. …
Start with Brian Robinson. He's having a very good year, averaging 79 total yards (65 run, 14 rec) with 4 total touchdowns. He lost another score (while fighting through a sea of tacklers) on a big hit at the goal line last week, though his teammate fell on it. He's running with a lot more energy than he seemed to last year (when he was shot in a carjacking incident on the eve of the season) -- just 4.3 per attempt, but that's nearly half a yard better than last year (3.9). Here he gets one of the best possible matchups for a running back.
A year ago Chicago allowed 31 rushing touchdowns, 6 more than anyone else. Thus far they've allowed just 4 rushing scores, but running backs have caught an additional 4 touchdowns through the first four games. Three of Chicago's first four opponents have put a running back over 30 receiving yards; if Chicago isn't quite as soft against the run (allowing an average of 116 rushing yards), they're making up for it by failing to account for the position in the passing game. Robinson has been more involved in that capacity thus far (5 for 55 with a score; last year he caught 9 passes all season).
Given the matchup, Antonio Gibson might also merit consideration in ultra-deep leagues. He's averaging just 31 total yards (14 run, 17 rec) and hasn't scored, but he should be better than that against this defense. He's averaging just over 5 touches and we won't recommend him too highly, but factoring in the short work week (this is the Thursday game) after an overtime encounter, reasonable to think he might play a little more than usual. But Robinson is the one who really looks good. He ran for 60 yards and a score in last year's win. …
Sam Howell can best be described as erratic, guiding the offense to a pair of 4-TD performances and 31-35 points at Philadelphia and Denver while also disintegrating in a 4-interception meltdown against Buffalo and absorbing an average of 6 sacks per game. The prospect of an in-game switch to Jacoby Brissett might never seem too unlikely. But those concerns can probably be set aside here, facing a Bears defense that has recorded only 2 sacks and 2 takeaways in its first four games.
The Bears have let their first four opponents average 272 passing yards, and three of those quarterbacks have thrown 3 touchdowns. Matchups don't get much better, leaving us little choice but to put Howell down for 250 yards, with a reasonable chance of throwing 2 TDs. He should outperform a bunch of quarterbacks who typically grade out higher than him.
About the only drag on his value is that the Commanders should have some success running the ball, and Washington's defense might be good enough to hold Chicago to below-average numbers, reducing Howell's need to throw it. But a pretty favorable situation. Howell averages 21 rushing yards, with 1 TD on the ground, but has just one really good game in that area (6 for 40 in last week's overtime shootout). That aspect of his game might not be as necessary this week. …
With multiple touchdown passes in play, the receivers look promising. It's a three-man mix, with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson all having potential with Howell likely to have some success throwing it. McLaurin has been best, with a team-high 21 catches on 26 targets. He's scored twice (including alertly falling on an end-zone fumble last week). Samuel has caught 4 fewer passes, but with his involvement as a runner (including an end-around touchdown at Philadelphia), he has just 14 fewer total yards. Dotson has just 1 fewer targets than McLaurin but 7 fewer catches and just over half as many yards as the others; he has more potential to hit something big, but those plays aren't happening right now (all three average just 8-10 yards per catch).
Dotson (ankle) and Samuel (quad) both showed up on the injury report but were able to get in limited practices on Tuesday; the assumption is both are fine. Chicago has allowed multiple touchdown receptions by wide receivers in half of its games and 5 total, so strong chance one of these players gets in the end zone. …
Logan Thomas has missed a game but has gone for 40 receiving yards or scored in his other three contests. He's involved, but at a relatively low level, and it's a better situation for the wide receivers. The only tight end to score against the Bears so far was Travis Kelce. … Joey Slye should be getting on the field plenty; just hope a couple of Washington drives stall in the red zone. Chicago has allowed nearly three times as many extra points (17) as field goals (6). Still, that works out to nearly 9 points a game by opposing kickers. …
The Commanders Defense also looks very good. Justin Fields has thrown an interception in every game (5 total) and taken 3 sacks in every game (17 total, so more than 4 per week). He's fumbled 4 times, losing 2 of them. Opposing defenses have turned 3 of his miscues into touchdowns. An excellent streaming option.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 5 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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