Chicago probably won’t win this game. The Chargers are favored by 8.5 points. But some scoring looks possible.
While the Bears offense has considerable flaws, it’s nonetheless scored 17 touchdowns – more than 21 other teams. It’s playing against an opponent that’s been underwhelming.
Los Angeles is allowing 407 yards per week, 2nd-worst in the league behind only the Broncos. That’s been influenced by giving up some big numbers to great offenses (Miami, Kansas City, Minnesota) but Chicago should be able to come up with a couple of touchdowns. …
The Bears probably will finish with above-average rushing numbers. They’ve run for over 160 yards four games in in a row. It helps having a mobile quarterback like Justin Fields, of course, but he wasn’t around on Sunday and they still ran for 173 against the Raiders. Here they’re facing a defense that’s probably below-average against the run. The Chargers currently rank 11th against the run, but they looked soft in Weeks 2 and 3 against the Titans and Vikings. They’ve been better recently, but this was one of the worst defenses in the league last year, allowing 5.4 yards per carry.
Chicago probably will go for 130-plus against this group, with a rushing touchdown likely. D’Onta Foreman probably will be their leading rusher. He was a healthy scratch in Weeks 2-5, but he’s played well enough the last two weeks that it would be weird for him not to start. He’s carried 31 times for 154 yards and 2 TDs in his last two games, sharing time with Darrynton Evans (Evans carried 23 times for 80 yards in those games).
Roschon Johnson should be available after missing the last two games, and they’ll want to see what he can do. If not for his concussion, he probably would have started those last two games. But as well as Foreman has played, he’ll likely get first crack at things. Johnson is probably the best pass catcher of these guys; he caught 10 passes in his first three games. Combo backfield, we’re thinking, probably with Foreman and Johnson (in that order) doing most of the lifting. (Khalil Herbert started the first five games but will be on IR for at least two more weeks.) …
Tyson Bagent starts at quarterback, and in some ways he’s better than Justin Fields. Fields has completed only 62 percent of his passes, while Bagent has finished over 71 percent in both of his games. Bagent has taken only 2 sacks in 45 pass plays, while Fields has been sacked 3 times as often. Bagent has a much lower interception percentage. All of this is surprising, with him being an undrafted rookie. But Bagent doesn’t create the same mismatches as an additional runner. He also doesn’t have the same ability to get the ball downfield. Fields averages 12.0 yards per completion, while Bagent is down at 7.9 – he’s looking to connect on lower-payoff balls around the line of scrimmage. Bagent finished with modest numbers last week at home against the Raiders, completing 21 of 29 for 162 yards, with a touchdown and no interceptions. Here he faces a defense that ranks last against the pass, but the quarterbacks who’ve done the damage are all multiple stratospheres above Bagent – Mahomes, Tua, Cousins. Aidan O’Connell is a much fairer comp; he passed for 238 yards against this defense, but with no touchdowns (and 7 sacks and 3 turnovers).
Ryan Tannehill and Dak Prescott averaged 259 passing yards against this defense, with each guy throwing only 1 TD. So modest passing numbers, we’re thinking, with the Bears probably trying to emphasize the run. Call it 200 yards and a touchdown. Bagent is sneaky mobile. He ran for 24 yards on Sunday; he ran for a touchdown against Minnesota and scored 2 more in the preseason. …
With the quarterback change, DJ Moore becomes a different player, with less ability to get downfield for a high-payoff play. He’s now catching short balls around the line of scrimmage. Maybe he can turn one of those into a big play, but that’s hard to do. In a game and a half with Bagent at quarterback, he’s caught 12 passes for 98 yards. That’s 8.2 per reception. Moore averaged 19.2 yards per catch in his five and half games with Fields.
Those playing in PPR formats can be less worried about the quarterbacking change, knowing they’ll be getting a steady flow of short completions. And regardless of quarterback, it would be tough to sit down Moore against this defense. The Chargers have been more willing than most to lightly cover big-time receivers. Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce all caught at least 11 passes for over 150 yards against them. CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams combined for 15 catches for 192 yards. In our book, only one No. 1 receiver all year has had a lesser game against the Chargers (with DeAndre Hopkins catching only 4 for 40). …
We’ll pass on Darnell Mooney. He’s caught 5 passes for 41 yards in six quarters with Bagent. … Probably best to leave Cole Kmeton ice for now. He may re-emerge as a top-10 tight end at some point, but thus far he’s played six quarters with Bagent at quarterback and hasn’t yet had a pass thrown in his direction. …
Cairo Santos looks like a below-average kicker. The Chargers so far have allowed almost 8 kicking points per week, but most of those points have come against opponents who are a lot better than the Bears. Santos is averaging just under 7 points per week. … The Bears Defense is a lesser option. It has only 10 sacks all year, and half of them came against mistake-prone Sam Howell.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 8 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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