Fantasy News

October 29, 2023

Workhorse backs

Are Etienne, McCaffrey overdue for injuries?

Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne both have over 150 combined runs and receptions. Is that an indication that both are prime candidates to break down? Or is it evidence of how durable and great they are?

I decided to run some numbers on this, looking at what’s happened to other running backs who’ve been in similar positions in the past. By looking at those backs, it should give us a better idea of what to expect from McCaffrey and Etienne.

In the last 10 years, there have been 41 other running backs who’ve handled the ball at least 150 times in their team’s first seven games. They’re listed in descending order below, with the three backs with over 200 touches (Derrick Henry, DeMarco Murray, LeVeon Bell) listed at the top.

Of those 41 backs, 12 missed at least two starts in the remaining weeks of the season. (That includes not only injuries but players perhaps choosing to sit out the final game, resting for the playoffs.) And seven missed at least three games.

Those numbers aren’t quite as large as I expected. In percentage terms, 29 percent missed at least two games, and 17 percent missed at least three. Those represent the ballpark odds of maybe getting some kind of hit by stashing away Tank Bigsby or some combination of Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason.

In the chart below, guys missing at least two games are tagged with black dots.

BACKS WITH 150+ TOUCHES IN FIRST SEVEN G (last 10 years)
Year	Player	Han	Miss	Run	Rec	TD
2021	• Derrick Henry, Ten.	209	9	937	154	10
2014	DeMarco Murray, Dall.	208	0	1,845	416	13
2017	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	202	1	1,291	655	11
2017	• Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	183	6	983	269	9
2022	Derrick Henry, Ten.	180	1	1,538	398	13
2019	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	180	0	1,387	1,005	19
2017	LeSean McCoy, Buff.	175	0	1,138	448	8
2016	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	174	1	1,631	363	16
2016	David Johnson, Ariz.	174	0	1,239	879	20
2019	Leonard Fournette, Jac.	172	1	1,152	522	3
2017	Todd Gurley, LAR	172	1	1,305	788	19
2013	Jamaal Charles, K.C.	171	1	1,287	693	19
2020	Derrick Henry, Ten.	171	0	2,027	114	17
2018	• Todd Gurley, LAR	169	2	1,251	580	21
2022	Saquon Barkley, NYG	168	1	1,312	338	10
2016	DeMarco Murray, Ten.	166	0	1,287	377	12
2020	Josh Jacobs, L.V.	165	1	1,065	238	12
2015	Devonta Freeman, Atl.	165	1	1,056	578	14
2021	Najee Harris, Pitt.	165	0	1,200	467	10
2014	Matt Forte, Chi.	163	0	1,038	808	10
2013	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	162	0	1,607	539	11
2021	• Alvin Kamara, N.O.	161	4	898	439	9
2015	• Matt Forte, Chi.	161	3	898	389	7
2019	Chris Carson, Sea.	161	1	1,230	266	9
2019	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	159	0	1,357	420	14
2018	• James Conner, Pitt.	158	3	973	497	13
2016	• Melvin Gordon, S.D.	158	3	997	419	12
2019	• Dalvin Cook, Min.	157	2	1,135	519	13
2018	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	157	1	1,434	567	9
2014	• Andre Ellington, Ariz.	156	4	660	395	5
2016	• Lamar Miller, Hou.	156	2	1,073	188	6
2019	Nick Chubb, Cle.	155	0	1,494	278	8
2016	Todd Gurley, LAR	155	0	885	327	6
2015	Adrian Peterson, Min.	155	0	1,485	222	11
2014	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	154	0	1,319	155	5
2014	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	153	0	1,361	854	11
2017	• Jay Ajayi, Mia.-Phi.	152	2	873	158	2
2013	Marshawn Lynch, Sea.	152	0	1,257	316	14
2013	Matt Forte, Chi.	151	0	1,339	594	12
2023	Christian McCaffrey, S.F.	151	?	?	?	?
2023	Travis Etienne, Jac.	151	?	?	?	?
2016	• Matt Forte, NYJ	150	2	813	263	8
2017	Jordan Howard, Chi.	150	0	1,122	125	9

When I looking into this, I also pulled up the numbers for the other 11 seasons in the 32-team era. I left them out to avoid making the chart ridiculously large, but since we have the benefit of unlimited space, I’ll toss them on below for those who want to pick through them. The basic conclusion is the about the same. In this group, 27 percent of the backs in this 11-year period missed at least two games, and 19 percent missed at least three games.

Note, by the way, that there were over twice as many heavily used backs in the 2002-11 time period – further evidence of more teams moving to a committee approach at running back. There have been 43 such backs in the last 11 seasons, but 93 of those runners in the first 12 years of the 32-team era.

BACKS WITH 150+ TOUCHES IN FIRST SEVEN G (2002-12)
Year	Player	Han	Miss	Run	Rec	TD
2002	• Priest Holmes, K.C.	212	2	1,615	672	24
2002	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	208	0	1,683	489	15
2003	Ricky Williams, Mia.	205	0	1,372	351	10
2006	Larry Johnson, K.C.	199	0	1,789	410	19
2004	Curtis Martin, NYJ	196	0	1,697	245	14
2004	• Priest Holmes, K.C.	195	8	892	187	15
2004	Clinton Portis, Was.	193	1	1,315	235	7
2002	• Edgerrin James, Ind.	191	2	989	354	3
2010	Adrian Peterson, Min.	187	1	1,298	341	13
2006	Edgerrin James, Ariz.	185	0	1,159	217	6
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	185	0	1,815	508	31
2006	Tiki Barber, NYG	184	0	1,662	465	5
2003	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	183	0	1,645	725	17
2005	Edgerrin James, Ind.	182	1	1,506	337	14
2002	Fred Taylor, Jac.	182	0	1,314	408	8
2003	Ahman Green, G.B.	181	0	1,883	367	20
2003	Priest Holmes, K.C.	181	0	1,420	690	27
2012	Arian Foster, Hou.	180	0	1,424	217	17
2010	Chris Johnson, Ten.	180	0	1,364	245	12
2002	Ricky Williams, Mia.	180	0	1,853	363	17
2002	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	179	1	1,388	352	16
2006	Steven Jackson, St.L.	179	0	1,528	806	16
2003	Jamal Lewis, Balt.	178	0	2,066	205	14
2003	Tiki Barber, NYG	178	0	1,216	461	3
2002	Jamal Lewis, Balt.	178	0	1,327	442	7
2007	Willie Parker, Pitt.	176	1	1,316	164	2
2008	Matt Forte, Chi.	176	0	1,238	477	12
2009	• Cedric Benson, Cin.	174	3	1,251	111	6
2004	Edgerrin James, Ind.	174	0	1,548	483	9
2002	• Marshall Faulk, St.L.	173	2	953	537	10
2008	Clinton Portis, Was.	173	0	1,487	218	9
2010	• Frank Gore, S.F.	172	5	853	452	5
2005	Thomas Jones, Chi.	172	1	1,335	143	9
2005	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	172	0	1,462	370	20
2003	• Stephen Davis, Car.	171	2	1,444	159	8
2006	Chester Taylor, Min.	171	1	1,216	288	6
2005	• LaMont Jordan, Oak.	170	2	1,025	563	11
2007	Willis McGahee, Balt.	170	1	1,207	231	8
2004	Tiki Barber, NYG	169	0	1,518	578	15
2003	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	169	0	1,641	516	8
2005	Willis McGahee, Buff.	168	0	1,247	178	5
2007	• Larry Johnson, K.C.	166	8	559	186	4
2002	Ahman Green, G.B.	166	1	1,240	393	9
2004	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	165	1	1,335	441	18
2010	Steven Jackson, St.L.	165	0	1,241	383	6
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	165	0	1,474	475	18
2005	• Domanick Williams, Hou.	164	5	976	337	6
2006	• Willis McGahee, Buff.	164	2	990	156	6
2009	Steven Jackson, St.L.	164	1	1,416	322	4
2008	Adrian Peterson, Min.	163	0	1,760	125	10
2002	• Anthony Thomas, Chi.	162	4	721	163	6
2011	• Matt Forte, Chi.	162	4	997	490	4
2007	Edgerrin James, Ariz.	162	0	1,222	204	7
2002	Corey Dillon, Cin.	162	0	1,311	298	7
2012	• Darren McFadden, Oak.	161	4	707	258	3
2006	Willie Parker, Pitt.	161	0	1,494	222	16
2002	• Lamar Smith, Car.	160	5	737	167	7
2011	• Fred Jackson, Buff.	159	6	934	442	6
2007	• Marshawn Lynch, Buff.	159	3	1,115	184	7
2011	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	159	0	1,606	374	11
2005	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	159	0	1,880	78	28
2004	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	159	0	1,696	170	20
2007	• Ronnie Brown, Mia.	158	9	602	389	5
2011	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	158	1	1,309	315	20
2012	Adrian Peterson, Min.	158	0	2,097	217	13
2010	Arian Foster, Hou.	158	0	1,616	604	18
2003	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	158	0	1,435	295	16
2011	• Adrian Peterson, Min.	157	4	970	139	13
2012	Marshawn Lynch, Sea.	157	0	1,590	196	12
2010	Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.	157	0	1,273	167	13
2006	Thomas Jones, Chi.	157	0	1,210	154	6
2002	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	157	0	1,175	460	18
2009	Adrian Peterson, Min.	156	0	1,383	436	18
2003	Fred Taylor, Jac.	156	0	1,572	370	7
2004	• Duce Staley, Pitt.	155	6	830	55	1
2012	• LeSean McCoy, Phil.	155	4	840	373	5
2010	Ray Rice, Balt.	155	0	1,220	556	6
2002	Travis Henry, Buff.	155	0	1,438	309	14
2008	Marion Barber, Dall.	154	1	885	417	9
2004	Ahman Green, G.B.	154	1	1,163	275	8
2002	Eddie George, Ten.	154	0	1,165	255	14
2006	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	153	0	1,309	124	12
2004	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	153	0	1,454	84	12
2003	• William Green, Cle.	152	9	559	50	1
2005	• Curtis Martin, NYJ	152	4	735	118	5
2010	• Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	152	2	1,324	317	7
2011	Frank Gore, S.F.	152	0	1,211	114	8
2010	Cedric Benson, Cin.	152	0	1,111	178	8
2006	• Tatum Bell, Den.	150	3	1,025	115	2
2010	Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG	150	0	1,235	314	8
2006	Frank Gore, S.F.	150	0	1,695	485	9
2005	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	150	0	1,458	90	12
2002	Tiki Barber, NYG	150	0	1,387	597	11

—Ian Allan

Travis Etienne Christian McCaffrey

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