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Updated strength of schedule

Schedule works against a late-season Bills run

As the Bills try to claw back into the playoffs, they’ll have to overcome one of the league’s hardest schedules. Their next two games are at Philadelphia and at Kansas City, and they also still need to play the Cowboys and Dolphins.

Strictly off wins, Buffalo’s remaining opponents right now are 36-24. That ties as the 3rd-hardest remaining schedule, trailing only the Bengals and Cowboys.

The three easiest remaining schedules belong to the three teams competing for the NFC South title: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. In the case of the Falcons, they have no remaining games left against teams with winning records. (The Bucs and Saints both have one game left against a division leader.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Wins (Wks 12-18)
TeamWLPct
Atlanta2744.380
Tampa Bay2743.386
New Orleans2843.394
Kansas City3142.425
Green Bay3241.438
Carolina3139.443
Pittsburgh3339.458
Philadelphia3440.459
Indianapolis3338.465
Cleveland3437.479
Jacksonville3437.479
Houston3436.486
New England3537.486
LA Rams3638.486
Detroit3637.493
Miami3637.493
Chicago3131.500
Denver3635.507
LA Chargers3835.521
NY Jets3734.521
Minnesota3329.532
San Francisco3934.534
Tennessee3832.543
NY Giants3327.550
Las Vegas3427.557
Arizona3526.574
Seattle4130.577
Baltimore3525.583
Washington3624.600
Buffalo3624.600
Dallas4429.603
Cincinnati4427.620

If we instead look not at wins and losses but points allowed by defenses, the Saints, Steelers and Titans project to play the easiest schedules over the next month.

The Seahawks, Eagles, Jaguars and Raiders will tend to see the toughest defenses in their next four. Seattle’s upcoming schedule is particularly daunting – 49ers, at Dallas, at San Francisco and Eagles.

On the chart below, I’m looking at the next four games for each team. So that’s Weeks 12-15 for most, but Weeks 12-16 for teams that haven’t yet had their bye week.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Points (next 4)
TeamAvg
New Orleans24.5
Pittsburgh24.3
Tennessee24.3
Cleveland23.8
Tampa Bay23.6
Detroit23.2
Minnesota23.0
San Francisco22.7
NY Jets22.5
Miami22.5
Houston22.3
Dallas22.0
Atlanta21.9
LA Rams21.9
Chicago21.9
LA Chargers21.8
Cincinnati21.5
New England21.4
Denver21.4
Green Bay21.3
NY Giants21.3
Washington20.9
Indianapolis20.9
Arizona20.8
Carolina20.7
Baltimore20.5
Kansas City20.4
Buffalo19.7
Las Vegas19.4
Jacksonville19.4
Philadelphia18.1
Seattle17.5

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index