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Updated strength of schedule

Texans could rise soft schedule to playoff berth

That win in Cincinnati could prove to be pivotal – for both the Texans and the Bengals. Both of those teams are 5-4, but Houston has a much easier remaining schedule.

The Texans’ remaining opponents are currently a combined 33-41, making their schedule (at least on paper) the easiest in the AFC. The Bengals, on the other hand, have a remaining schedule that’s by far the hardest in the league, with games against teams that are currently a combined 49-26 (winning 8 more games than anyone else).

Buffalo is in the same boat as Cincinnati; it’s frittered away too many games, and it’s got a difficult remaining slate, against teams that are currently 10 games over .500.

There are three teams battling for the title of the NFC South – Saints, Falcons, Bucs – and they have the easiest remaining schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 11-18)
TeamWLPct
New Orleans2541.379
Atlanta2740.403
Tampa Bay3144.413
Houston3341.446
Green Bay3441.453
Jacksonville3439.466
Detroit3641.468
Carolina3539.473
Philadelphia3640.474
Kansas City3739.487
LA Chargers3739.487
Indianapolis3233.492
New England3233.492
Cleveland3637.493
LA Rams3839.494
Miami3838.500
NY Jets3838.500
Pittsburgh3838.500
NY Giants3333.500
Washington3331.516
Denver3936.520
Minnesota3431.523
Chicago3531.530
San Francisco4035.533
Dallas4134.547
Seattle4033.548
Tennessee4033.548
Baltimore3627.571
Arizona3727.578
Buffalo3727.578
Las Vegas3926.600
Cincinnati4926.653

If we put aside wins and losses and instead look at points allowed by defenses, the Saints and Titans project to face the worst defenses over the next month-plus, with opponents allowing about 24 points per game. They’re followed by four teams with more relevant offenses: Lions, Vikings, Browns, Cowboys.

In the chart below, I’m looking not at the entire season but just the next five games for each team. That’s Weeks 11-15 for 22 teams, but Weeks 11-16 for the ten teams that haven’t yet had their byes.

Five teams in this section of the schedule project to play opponents allowing (collectively) fewer than 20 points per game, and all are notable for fantasy purposes: Eagles, Seahawks, Jaguars, Bills. Not that Philadelphia won’t continue to score points, but they’ll be playing more of an uphill battle.

SCHEDULE, POINTS (next 5 G)
TeamAvg
New Orleans24.1
Tennessee23.9
Detroit23.7
Minnesota23.5
Cleveland23.4
Dallas23.3
Pittsburgh23.1
New England22.8
Houston22.8
NY Giants22.6
San Francisco22.4
Washington22.3
NY Jets22.3
Chicago22.2
LA Rams22.1
Atlanta22.0
Tampa Bay22.0
Green Bay21.6
LA Chargers21.6
Denver21.5
Miami21.2
Arizona21.1
Baltimore21.0
Kansas City20.9
Cincinnati20.6
Indianapolis20.5
Las Vegas20.3
Carolina19.8
Buffalo19.8
Jacksonville19.5
Seattle18.9
Philadelphia18.2

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index