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November 27, 2023

Panthers fire Reich

Will Carolina get a lift from a coaching change?

Carolina has fired Frank Reich, and if history is any indication, the offense probably will get a slight bump. Call it addition by subtraction or a dead cat bounce, but most teams tend to get a slight spark from shaking things up.

Most recently, the Raiders came out and hammered the Giants 30-6 in their first game after cutting Josh McDaniels loose. Playing an opponent like the Giants, of course, helps in this regard. But other teams have also gotten a new coach spark in the past.

Since 2000, 45 teams have switched to new coaches during a season. Eighteen of those teams (40 percent) won their first game under a new boss. Now, 40 percent might not seem like much, but these were teams that were bad enough to fire their coaches (they went only 2-43 in their preceding games.

More notably for fantasy purposes, 28 of these 45 teams scored more points in their first back. As a group, they averaged 4 more points in their first game than they did in their last game under the fired coach.

For our latest team in this category, the Panthers look pretty hopeless. Bryce Young has started 10 games, and the offense has scored only 11 touchdowns in those games.

The matchup this week looks so-so. Tampa Bay has a defense that’s been bottom-10 at giving up yards, but it’s been above-average in allowing points. And the Bucs are still in the hunt for the NFC South title. (Playing at home, Tampa Bay seems unlikely to do anything other than beat Carolina comfortable this week.)

Regardless, the chart below shows teams since 2000 that have switched coaches during the season. If a team won its first game, it’s tagged with a black dot. If it scored more points than it did in its previous game, it’s tagged with a black dot.

TEAMS IN FIRST GAME WITH INTERIM COACH, 2000-
YearTeamOpponentResult
2000•• DetroitAtlantaW 13-10
2000• ArizonaNew OrleansL 10-21
2000• CincinnatiMiamiL 16-31
2000• Washingtonat DallasL 13-32
2001Minnesotaat BaltimoreL 3-19
2003Atlantaat IndianapolisL 7-38
2004Miamiat SeattleL 17-24
2004ClevelandNew EnglandL 15-42
2005• DetroitMinnesotaL 16-21
2005St. Louisat IndianapolisL 28-45
2007Atlantaat Tampa BayL 3-37
2008•• St. Louisat WashingtonW 19-17
2008San FranciscoSeattleL 13-34
2008Oaklandat New OrleansL 3-34
2009Buffaloat JacksonvilleL 15-18
2010•• Dallasat NY GiantsW 33-20
2010•• San FranciscoArizonaW 38-7
2010•• Minnesotaat WashingtonW 17-13
2010• Denverat ArizonaL 13-43
2011•• Miamiat BuffaloW 30-23
2011•• Kansas CityGreen BayW 19-14
2011• JacksonvilleSan DiegoL 14-38
2012New Orleansat DenverL 14-34
2013Houstonat IndianapolisL 3-25
2014• OaklandSan DiegoL 28-31
2015•• Tennesseeat New OrleansW 34-28
2015•• Miamiat TennesseeW 38-10
2015•• Philadelphiaat NY GiantsW 35-30
2016•• JacksonvilleTennesseeW 38-17
2016LA Ramsat SeattleL 3-24
2016Buffaloat NY JetsL 10-30
2017NY GiantsDallasL 10-30
2018•• Green BayAtlantaW 34-20
2018• ClevelandKansas CityL 21-37
2019•• Washingtonat MiamiW 17-16
2019Carolinaat AtlantaL 20-40
2020•• Atlantaat MinnesotaW 40-23
2020•• Detroitat ChicagoW 34-30
2020•• HoustonJacksonvilleW 30-14
2021•• Las Vegasat DenverW 34-24
2021• JacksonvilleHoustonL 16-30
2022• Denverat Kansas CityL 24-27
2022Carolinaat LA RamsL 10-24
2022Indianapolisat New EnglandL 3-26
2023•• Las VegasNY GiantsW 30-6
2023Carolinaat Tampa Bay?

—Ian Allan

Frank Reich Bryce Young
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