The Rams have the key offense of the week. They’re operating at a high level right now, with over 30 points in three straight games.
And now, as luck would have it, they line up at home against the league’s worst defense. The Commanders are allowing over 4 more points per game than anyone else, and they’re playing their worst ball right now, allowing 45 points in each of their last two games. At a minimum, the Rams will score 3 TDs, and they look about as likely as anyone to finish with the most points of anyone in Week 15.
Matthew Stafford looks like a lock for top-5 passing numbers. He’s on top of his game right now, with 4, 3, and 3 TD passes in his last three games. He’s passed for 573 yards and 6 TDs the last two weeks against the Browns and Ravens, and those are two of the best pass defenses in the league. Here he’s getting to work against the worst pass defense.
The Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most passing yards in the league, and they’ve given up 30 touchdown passes. Only one other defense has allowed more than 24. In Washington’s last 12 games, only two teams have failed to throw multiple touchdowns. Sure looks like a week where Stafford (at a minimum) will be passing for 280 yards and 2 TDs, with a chance to do more. He doesn’t scramble at all, but this week it shouldn’t matter.
The matchup isn’t as cherry for Kyren Williams, with Washington being more of an average defense against the run. They’re allowing 114 rushing yards per game, and they’ve allowed 3 times as many touchdowns on passes (30) as runs (10). Unlikely, we’re thinking, that Williams is the headline performer in this game. But he’s playing well enough that he’s a good candidate for top-10 running back numbers anyway. They rotate their backs less than other teams, with Williams on the field for over 90 percent of the team’s plays in each of the last two games. He’s averaged 110 rushing and 19 receiving yards in his last six games, with 6 TDs. He’s their guy, and they’ve got their offense rolling right now. Would seem wildly ill-advised to sit him down against a defense that’s allowed at least 29 points in four straight games.
The Rams have run for 120 and 128 yards the last two weeks against the Browns and Ravens, and both of those teams have better run defenses than Washington. Williams averages almost 3 catches per week and has caught 3 TDs, same as Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee.
With Washington hemorrhaging production through the air, we’re moving the wide receivers well up on our board. Either Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua (and maybe both) will put up big numbers. Kupp has scored in back-to-back games anyway. Through some combination of age and injuries, he doesn’t look quite physically right. For the season, he’s averaging 4.6 catches for 61 yards, with 3 TDs. But the Rams averaged only 223 passing yards in those games; there will 20-30 percent more yards in play here, as well as more touchdowns. Nacua looks pretty similar to Kupp; over the last four weeks, they’ve both caught 18 passes and 2 TDs. And Nacua has carried the ball 4 times for 47 yards in those games. Given the matchup, both he and Kupp should outperform the best wide receiver from most teams this week.
Given the matchup, some sense for those in large leagues to consider Demarcus Robinson. They elevated him into the third receiver role back in Week 12 (he’s playing more than Tutu Atwell). Robinson has caught 9 passes for 114 yards in the last three games, with 2 TDs.
Davis Allen caught 4 passes for 50 yards and a touchdown last week, but he’ll likely move back into a reserve role. If Tyler Higbee (concussion) is cleared, he’ll start, and he doesn’t tend to be a big factor in the offense. He’s averaged 3.1 catches for 32 yards in his last 10 games with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Higbee caught 2 TDs against Arizona, but he didn’t score in any of his previous 19 games with Stafford at quarterback. Stafford has thrown 70 touchdowns as a Ram, and Higbee has caught only 7 of them. Some quick work on the calculator (tap tap tap) indicates that’s a lowly 10 percent touchdown share. So if we’re assuming Stafford throws 2 TDs in this game, that would give you about a 1 in 5 chance of walking away with a touchdown. There are better options.
There’s some risk with Lucas Havrisik, with him having missed 3 field goals in the two games prior to Sunday. But the Rams are going with him for now. After he made all 3 of his field goals on Sunday in the rain (including a 51-yarder) they released Mason Crosby off the practice squad. And with the next two games at home against Commanders and Saints, Havrisik looks awfully promising in the short term. Risky as hell, but promising. Washington is allowing 9.4 points per week against the position, 2nd-most in the league.
It makes sense to rank the Rams Defense higher than usual, with Washington having a leaky line and an experienced quarterback who tends to hold the ball too long. Sam Howell isn’t making as many errors now as he was early in the season, but he’s nonetheless taken 39 sacks in his last 10 games, with 9 interceptions. Only once all year did he take fewer than 3 sacks in a game, and Washington has allowed defensive touchdowns three games in a row. That makes Los Angeles a candidate for above-average numbers, but it’s not a difference-making kind of group. The Rams have only 29 sacks and 11 takeaways in 13 games. They don’t have a kick returner of any note.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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