Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Is it time to bench Patrick Mahomes? Revised pass-catching projections for Chargers. Mulling Purdy vs. Josh. Kansas City's free agent receiver targets. Sitting down Tua against the Jets. And more.
Question 1
Up 6 points heading into the second week of the first playoff round and I am pulling my hair over Mahomes performance the last few weeks. Should I actually consider benching Mahomes vs. NE and stream someone like a Stafford on waivers vs. a porous WSH pass defense? Opponent likely is playing Puka at flex so I am thinking it could be a savvy move to partially offset any of his potential TDs.
Mitchell Ross (Westport, CT)
I have zero loyalty. Brandon Aubrey, as our most recent example, just put together one of the best games ever by a kicker. I am replacing him for a playoff game with Lucas Havrisik (who about a week ago at this time the Rams were sizing up for the waiver wire). That’s the way I roll.
I consider Mahomes-Stafford to be an easier decision than Aubrey-Havrisik. Stafford is playing lights out right now, with 4, 3 and 3 TD passes in his last three games. He’s playing at home against the pass defense that’s been by far the worst in the league for the bulk of the season. I would not hesitate to start Stafford. Now if you make these kind of decisions all the time, a percentage of them will backfire, with you looking like a horse’s ass. But that’s the nature of this silly game we play.
Question 2
Back again this week but for a WR question. Injuries have me struggling and my choices are Higgins, Cooks or Palmer coming off IR. I need to start two. I guess I'm wary of Palmer because who knows how Stick will play? On the bright side, I clinched my division even though I didn't start Lawrence last week, so even if I start the wrong guys, I'm still playing in our post season.
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
I think I would start Joshua Palmer over both Higgins and Cooks. The Raiders have played well against the pass; they’re 10th in yards (223 per game), and with only 15 TD passes. So I think it’s fair to keep expectations modest – about 215 yards and a touchdown, I think. Stick threw for 179 yards in just over a half last week. He’s been around for a few years (usually failing to beat out Chase Daniels) so he should be ready to go.
The selling point is really the Keenan Allen injury. He’s not playing, so I think Palmer and Quentin Johnston look pretty safe to be the team’s leading pass catchers. (And let’s move Gerald Everett up just a little at tight end as well). If we conservatively slot those guys to each account for just under a quarter of the team’s receiving production, they grade out as top-40 receivers. With me being leery of Dallas’ ability to put up the same kind of offensive numbers on the road, it then becomes a fair debate of Palmer and Johnston possibly in Week 15 being better than Brandin Cooks. (And Higgins is lower than all of those guys.)
Question 3
Week 15 help please. Could you actually sit Tua for Lock if Tyreek plays? Rankings suggest Lock clearly over Tua in my league.
Mike Bayless (Little Rock, AR)
I’d sure be thinking about it. Eagles give up a ton of passing production. I think they’re going to have problems with those three Seattle receivers. And the Jets have a remarkably good pass defense. It’s definitely a sticky issue, in my eyes. You might not have to option of starting Lock, with the possibility that the Seahawks won’t decide on a starting quarterback until Monday. And there’s the guesswork of how healthy Hill is. He might not play at all. If he plays, it will be at less than full strength. If you’re getting a gimpy Hill in a limited role, I would not want to be starting Tagovailoa this week.
Question 4
It's a shame to see the greatness of Patrick Mahomes being squandered this season, and I wonder what they will do about it in the offseason. I guess trade talk is seldom here, but I cannot help but wonder what Courtland Sutton would do in that offense. Trading in the division is not ideal, but what he's doing in Denver makes it seem that he has stepped deep into his prime and could be a top 5 WR on a better offense. Then there's free agency. Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, and Tee Higgins are names of value set for UFA status that the Chiefs may be able to target, but will any of them even make it to the 2024 market?
Josh Obusek (Pittsburgh, PA)
I don’t think Kansas City will be in the market for a headliner receiver. Michael Pittman has ascended to being a young Keenan Allen. It would take a king’s ransom to pry him away from the Colts. He’ll be tagged, and he’s not going anyway.
Brett Veach and Andy Reid have a winning team and the game’s best quarterback. I would think they’d be more likely to be working on various veterans, trying to convince them to sign short-term deals. Think of JuJu Smith-Schuster; the initial deal he signed was one year for $3.8 million. With Mahomes, Kansas City has more ability to acquire those kind of players. (And Rashee Rice looks like he might grow into being an adequate enough No. 1 receiver.)
Tee Higgins will sign a good deal somewhere, I think. Probably not with the Bengals, with them trying to financially plan for both Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase. But he doesn’t seem like the kind of receiver Kansas City would want to go after, considering the cost.
| RECEIVERS HEADED FOR FREE AGENCY | |
|---|---|
| Player | Current |
| Michael Pittman | Indianapolis |
| Tee Higgins | Cincinnati |
| Calvin Ridley | Jacksonville |
| Marquise Brown | Arizona |
| Mike Evans | Tampa Bay |
| Tyler Boyd | Cincinnati |
| Gabe Davis | Buffalo |
| DJ Chark | Carolina |
| Darnell Mooney | Chicago |
| Curtis Samuel | Washington |
| Odell Beckham | Baltimore |
| Michael Thomas | New Orleans |
| Nelson Agholor | Baltimore |
| Josh Reynolds | Detroit |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | Detroit |
| Chase Claypool | Miami |
| K.J. Osborn | Minnesota |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | Tennessee |
| Parris Campbell | N.Y. Giants |
| Cedrick Wilson | Miami |
Question 5
Why is everyone automatically ranking Josh Allen as a top 2 QB this week when he’s going up against one of the best defenses in the league? Did we not see what the Cowboys did to Hurts? I’m thinking outside the box and considering Purdy instead. I can’t afford an average 18-point week out of my QB. Am I overthinking/crazy?
Craig Gray (Bemidji, MN)
In typical fantasy leagues, Josh Allen has been the most productive player at his position three years in a row – both total production and per-game production. No other quarterback in the fantasy football era has done this. So there’s that. With him having scored two thirds of his team’s rushing touchdowns, he’s had a hand in 35 of Buffalo’s 40 offensive touchdowns. I wouldn’t worry much about Dallas somehow shutting him down.
I’m in agreement that Purdy’s looking real good right now. If we’re locked in on benching Allen, Purdy would be the kind of guy you would want to plug in. But the 49ers have scored almost as many touchdowns on runs (22) as passes (25), creating the potential of him falling short statistically. He’s not the running threat that Allen is. Allen has put up multiple touchdowns in 13 straight games. As well as he’s playing, Purdy has finished with just one touchdown in five of his last 13 games.
Question 6
Thanks for your help as always! In a custom league that is TD-heavy I will be forced to either drop Jefferson (not happening) or drop one of Pierce, Z.Moss, Higgins or Jeudy. Everyone plays in this league every week and I have a bye this week - so who scores the most points the two after this one basically. Must drop one of those four.
Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)
I would be comfortable dropping all four of them, honestly. Jeudy, he’s scored like one touchdown all year, right? And they don’t use their receivers all that much, given the style of game they’re playing. Pierce is sharing time with Devin Singletary and is the lesser half of that tandem. Jonathan Taylor probably will come back next week, and that will dump Moss into a similar kind of role. Higgins has caught only 5 passes in his two starts with Jake Browning, and his last touchdown catch came in Week 2. With all four of these guys, I’m not oppose to replacing them with Flavor of the Week options on the waiver wire. But if we’re keeping three, how about Moss (maybe Taylor isn’t back in Week 16), Jeudy (Lions secondary in Week 16) and Higgins (the best player)?
Question 7
I am a subscriber to Index Bets. The number I have to bet is almost always somewhat or often significantly higher than the number you say to bet over. I struggle with should I make the bet or not. Any advice?
Randy Newland (Sunrise, FL)
I would stay away from lines that have moved. I like getting the best deal. I’m not excited about showing up expecting to buy one thing, and then being given the option to spend the same money on something less. If we go back to May, the initial over-under win totals came out, and I noticed that Arizona was sitting at 5 and half wins. That looked like an awfully safe one to me. But later in the summer, with the market corrections, it moved down to 4 and half. I would have still thought they would finish under 4 and half, but I’m not excited about giving away almost 20 percent of what I was going to be getting.
Question 8
I have to trade one of these RBs. Which one would you unload: Zack Moss, Montgomery, Kyren Williams, Pollard, Jacobs?
CHRISTOPHER TONELLA (Saint Louis, MO)
Jacobs is officially questionable (with the knee injury that’s apparently not a knee injury but a quad injury) but he hasn’t practiced all week. It would be crazy or reckless to use him tonight against the Chargers (I don’t know if he’ll be active, and he’s definitely than regular-strength Josh Jacobs). If you’re keeping him around, it would be with the hope he’s maybe healthy and usable for a game at Indianapolis in Week 17. Moss has dramatically underperformed the last two weeks. Yours truly had him queued up to be a top-10 back, and he didn’t average better than 2.7 yards per attempt in either of those game. Something has changed with the Colts running game, apparently. He’s in another favorable situation this week, with Jonathan Taylor again ruled out and Pittsburgh having a below-average run defense.
Question 9
Love your product. Paralysis of analysis this week. In the first week of my playoffs. I was hoping Fairbairn would play. But with that not happening, my choices are Daniel Carlson or Chase McLaughlin. Any preference?
Chris Tilley (Riverview, FL)
I picked up Fairbairn a couple of weeks ago, figuring he’d grade out as about the best kicker for this week. But with the extensive injuries the Texans are dealing with, I’ve got him slotted as an average kicker now (even if Stroud is playing). How about Lucas Havrisik? He’s sketchy in terms of accuracy, but the Rams have a kicker-friendly offense and are playing against an opponent that’s allowed almost the most points in the league against the position. And it’s an indoor game, with no weather issues. He should be one of the top few kickers this week, I’m thinking. If you’re locked into having to start Carlson or McLaughlin, I will go McLaughlin, on the contingency that weather is a disaster in Green Bay on Sunday. (If Stroud is playing, I will have Fairbairn above the Chaser.)