The Chargers gave up 63 points on Thursday. Does that make the Bills the favorites to be highest-scoring team in Week 16? Or is it an indication that Buffalo needs to be careful not to show up overconfident?
I ran a few numbers on this. In the 32-team era, there have been 29 other occasions in which teams lost games by at least 42 points – teams that not only got whipped but had their noses rubbed in it. And those previous games indicate that the Bills should be careful to avoid showing up on autopilot.
The Chargers were involved in one of these games three years ago, losing 45-0 against New England. They bounced back to beat Atlanta the next week.
Denver was destroyed 70-20 by Miami earlier this season. They won at Chicago in their next game.
Of the last 29 teams to lose by 42, in fact, 12 of them won their next game. Only eight of those 29 teams lost by more than a touchdown.
I think this can be attributed to some combination of the embarrassed team wanting to show it can play. It’s been getting ripped in the media and by its coaches all week. And for the opposing team, I would think it would be harder to show up with the proper energy and hunger. There would be a natural overconfidence that would need to be overcome.
Buffalo is favored by 10.5 points. That seems like a very reasonable, fair line. As poorly as the Chargers played last week, it would be hard to pull the trigger on them. (Easton Stick is still quarterback, right?) But the similar games from the last 20 years suggest if you were forced to pick one side or the other, Los Angeles would be more likely to pay off.
| TEAMS LOSING BY 42 POINTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Opp | Score | Next Opp | Next Score |
| 2002 | Arizona | at K.C. | L 0-49 | Detroit | W 23-20 |
| 2003 | Chicago | at S.F. | L 7-49 | at Minnesota | L 13-24 |
| 2004 | Atlanta | at K.C. | L 10-56 | at Denver | W 41-28 |
| 2005 | Green Bay | at Balt. | L 3-48 | Chicago | L 17-24 |
| 2005 | New Orleans | at G.B. | L 3-52 | Atlanta | L 31-34 |
| 2005 | Philadelphia | Sea. | L 0-42 | N.Y. Giants | L 23-26 |
| 2007 | Washington | at N.E. | L 7-52 | at N.Y. Jets | W 23-20 |
| 2007 | Buffalo | N.E. | L 10-56 | at Jacksonville | L 14-36 |
| 2008 | St. Louis | at NYJ | L 3-47 | at San Francisco | L 16-35 |
| 2009 | Detroit | at Balt. | L 3-48 | Arizona | L 24-31 |
| 2009 | Tennessee | at N.E. | L 0-59 | Jacksonville | W 30-13 |
| 2010 | NY Jets | at N.E. | L 3-45 | Miami | L 6-10 |
| 2010 | Denver | Oak. | L 14-59 | at San Francisco | L 16-24 |
| 2011 | Indianapolis | at N.O. | L 7-62 | at Tennessee | L 10-27 |
| 2011 | Tampa Bay | at S.F. | L 3-48 | New Orleans | W 26-20 |
| 2011 | Kansas City | at Det. | L 3-48 | at San Diego | L 17-20 |
| 2012 | Tennessee | at G.B. | L 7-55 | Jacksonville | W 38-20 |
| 2012 | Arizona | at Sea. | L 0-58 | Detroit | W 38-10 |
| 2012 | Buffalo | at S.F. | L 3-45 | at Arizona | W 19-16 |
| 2013 | Chicago | at Phil. | L 11-54 | Green Bay | L 28-33 |
| 2014 | Oakland | at St.L. | L 0-52 | San Francisco | W 24-13 |
| 2014 | Tampa Bay | at Atl. | L 14-56 | at Pittsburgh | W 27-24 |
| 2017 | Tennessee | at Hou. | L 14-57 | at Miami | L 10-16 |
| 2018 | Buffalo | at Balt. | L 3-47 | L.A. Chargers | L 20-31 |
| 2019 | Miami | N.E. | L 0-43 | at Dallas | L 6-31 |
| 2019 | Miami | Balt. | L 10-59 | New England | L 0-43 |
| 2020 | LA Chargers | N.E. | L 0-45 | Atlanta | W 20-17 |
| 2021 | Washington | at Dall. | L 14-56 | Philadelphia | L 16-20 |
| 2023 | Denver | at Mia. | L 20-70 | at Chicago | W 31-28 |
| 2023 | LA Chargers | at L.V. | L 21-63 | Buffalo | ?-? |
—Ian Allan