It may be surprising that over 75% of fantasy baseball leagues use points scoring. However, there is a disproportionate focus on strategy and analysis for rotisserie- style formats. That said, the majority of fantasy players paying for information reside in the rotisserie realm.
There are several reasons points league analysis pales in comparison, not the least of which is inconsistency within scoring systems. Each of the major sites hosting points leagues not only score different statistics, but those that are the same assign varying point levels.
The most common differences for batters are strikeouts and steals. On the pitching side, innings, strikeouts and holds are often unique between sites.
Of course, not all rotisserie formats are standard 5x5, but the majority are that format. There is no points league equivalent.
Another distinction between the formats is the depth of strategy considerations. Rotisserie formats entail balancing several factors to piece together a puzzle.
- Homers versus steals
- Wins and strikeouts versus ERA and WHIP
- Not sacrificing batting average and saves
- Hitting versus pitching
This isn’t to say there are no game theory elements of points league strategy, but the conversion of all stats to points streamlines the analysis. What follows is a review of the key aspects when planning for a points league draft.
Points Over Replacement
The critical consideration in points league evaluation is the only points that matter are those not everyone has. That is, everyone has the points associated with the worst active player at each position. Let’s use catcher and outfielder as an example. Here are four hypothetical players, the best and worse active outfielder and catcher.
- OF projected to score 500 points
- OF projected to score 250 points
- C projected to score 400 points
- C projected to score 125 points
The outfielder adds more raw points to a roster, but the catcher contributes more useful points since the raw totals need to be adjusted for replacement. Here are the useful points for each player.
- OF projected to score 250 useful points
- OF projected to score 0 useful points
- C projected to score 275 useful points
- C projected to score 0 useful points
The process is carried out over all the position classifications. Depending on the roster format, this could be as few as three: catchers and non-catchers for batters and pitchers. In today’s landscape, the replacement for all non-catchers is close to the same for each position, especially when accounting for middle, corner, utility, and multiple eligibility players.
In points leagues, the chief reason for ranking players over replacement is to align hitting and pitching correctly. If the above example represented the top and replacement hitter and pitcher, knowing the same number of raw pitching points is more advantageous than the same number of raw hitting points is a huge key. The room is drafting hitting, because they perceive it to be worth more, but they’re wrong.
This is not to say every scoring system does this. Most understand the proper means of ranking players and design the system to better distribute hitters and pitchers throughout the rankings.
Problem with Replacement
Determining replacement for a draft seems straightforward. As an example, let’s use a 12-team league with 14 batters and nine pitchers. Two of the batters must be catchers, and the replacement for all the non-catchers is the same. Here is what is needed for every team to field a legal roster:
- Catcher: 12 x 2 = 24
- Non-Catcher: 12 x 12 = 144
- Pitcher: 12 x 9 = 108
The projected points from the 24th catcher, 144th non-catcher and 108th pitchers are subtracted from the respective subset of players. Piece of cake.
The problem is more germane to pitching than hitting since matchups drive weekly lineups more with pitching than hitting. Particularly in points leagues, pitchers with two starts are desirable since most scoring systems don’t yield negative points, so even if the hurler struggles, he’s still helping. Playing matchups raises the replacement level, which in turn lowers the level of useful points for pitchers. A workaround is artificially increasing pitching replacement, but the level is essentially an educated guess.
Reading the Room
Before getting too hung up on pinpointing replacement for the perfect draft list, the perfect list does not exist. It would, if everyone in the draft used the same projected points and ranking (and strategy), but of course they don’t. Beyond differing expectations for players, not everyone makes the adjustment for replacement.
Let’s use this hyperbolic example. Ranking using replacement generates rankings with pitchers in the top 10 spots, but ranking by raw points shows a predominance of batters early in the rankings. Those not making the adjustment will take hitter after hitter, while you continue to take the top player on your list, which is a pitcher for several rounds, perhaps even until all your active pitching spots are occupied.
The issue is the undrafted pitchers are “worth more” than the batters left for you to draft. Others are still drafting hitting, unaware the undrafted pitchers will contribute more useful points. Again, this is an extreme scenario not presented by most scoring systems, but in this instance, you need to pivot from pitching and draft some batters, even though they aren’t “as valuable”. However, doing so adds more points to your overall roster than continuing to pick pitchers, then filling in with batters.
Admittedly, this is an empirical approach, but my favorite way to combat the above scenario is choosing pitching replacement such that the overall ranking isn’t so pitching heavy. Even if it artificial, the adjusted rankings push me towards mixing in some batters, so overall my roster skill projects to more points than my competitors.
To reiterate, the above was an extreme example. Most drafts don’t tilt to this extent, but the key to points league draft is still getting a feel for how your competitors are assimilating their rosters and coordinating that with your rankings.
Two of My Favorite Things
Best ball is a fast-growing style of points league formats. It involves two of my favorite things: drafting and doing nothing.
The general process is drafting a roster, then having the web site select the optimal lineup each transaction period. Most are weekly, so your total points are computed once a week and at the end of the season, the most points win. Easy peasy.
Some formats allow in-season add/drops, but many are draft and hold. In full disclosure, most of the leagues are pay-for-play, but the entry fee can range from a couple of bucks to hundreds, with most being on the lower end of the spectrum.
By means of a gratuitous plug, the draft kit here at Fantasy Index includes roster-tracking Excel spreadsheets customized to the most popular Best Ball formats. Each spreadsheet has rankings customized to the specific Best Ball scoring and roster composition. They are updated every Friday with the latest projections, hence rankings. Currently, there are versions for Fanball 10s and 25s, The National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Cutline and 12-team best ball formats as well as Fantrax. Underdog Fantasy will be added once they launch their 2024 contest.
In addition, there is a customizable version where you can input your league specifications, with a huge array of statistics from which to choose.
Todd Zola is an award-winning fantasy baseball writer and 2020 inductee into the Fantasy Sports Writers Hall of Fame. He's the content provider for the 2024 Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit, available now. To purchase, click HERE.