The Cowboys have scored only 10 and 20 points the last two weeks, but they’ll bounce back here.
They’re back at home, where they play a lot better. Dallas is 7-0 at home, averaging 40 points in those games. The Cowboys are only 3-5 on the road, where they’ve averaged barely half as many points and touchdowns. Here they’re playing against a modest defense; the Lions rank in the bottom 10 in scoring defense.
Dak Prescott looks very good. He’s having a big year, and he’s been remarkably better with the home-cooking edge. He’s thrown 17 TDs in his last five games at AT&T. Here he’s facing an 11-4 opponent, but one with a bottom-10 pass defense. Nick Mullens, of all people, just passed for 411 yards and 2 TDs against this defense. Four other quarterbacks tossed 3 TDs against the Lions. Prescott has averaged 336 yards and 3.4 TDs in his last five games at home, and that seems to be the kind of game we’ll be getting.
With the kind of passing numbers the Cowboys put up at home, the general rule of thumb is to stack as many of their pass catchers as possible into your lineup. CeeDee Lamb is an every-week starter anyway, but he’s averaged 110 receiving yards in his last five games at home, with 6 TDs. Brandin Cooks has caught only 4 passes for 24 yards in his last two games, but he’s averaged 75 yards in his last five at home, with 4 TDs. They’ll be working against an awfully soft secondary; only three teams have allowed more touchdown passes to wide receivers.
While the situation is ideal, the other Dallas receivers haven’t done to merit serious consideration. Michael Gallup has caught only 19 passes in his last 10 games, with 2 TDs. Jalen Tolbert has been more productive in a third of the team’s games, but he’s also a nominal threat (12 catches and one touchdown in the last 10 games).
Jake Ferguson is a solid enough tight end, becoming a decent candidate for top-5 numbers when the Cowboys are putting up huge passing stats. Those games tend to come at home. Ferguson has averaged 52 yards in his last five home games, with 3 TDs.
The matchup isn’t as choice for Tony Pollard. The Lions have a middle-of-the-pack defense, but one that’s a lot better against the run (4th) than pass (24th). And Pollard hasn’t gotten in on the home-away dynamic that we’ve been kicking around. He’s averaged 16 carries for 62 yards in his seven games at home, with 2 TDs. He’s averaged a half-yard more per carry on the road, where he’s averaged 13 for 57, with 3 TDs.
Rico Dowdle will mix in for a few carries, but he’s more of an insurance policy rather than change of pace. He’s averaged 21 rushing yards, with 2 TDs. In games at AT&T, Dowdle has outscored Pollard 3-2.
With the Cowboys back at AT&T Stadium, we’re penciling in Brandon Aubrey for top-5 numbers. He’s averaged almost 12 points when playing at home. He’s averaging only just over 7 points when playing on the road.
The season-long numbers make the Cowboys Defense look surprisingly mediocre. Thus far it has 41 sacks and 21 takeaways, which are only slightly above the league averages (12 teams have more sacks, and 16 have generated more turnovers). Here Dallas runs into a veteran quarterback operating behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Jared Goff has taken only 28 sacks all year. He’s had three games with 3 turnovers in recent weeks, but he’s turned it over only 5 times in his other 12 games. KaVontae Turpin seems like one of the better kick returners but hasn’t actually taken a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown in his first 31 games.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 17 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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