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Cold weather

Will Arctic conditions cool Kansas City, Miami offenses?

If the weather forecast is accurate, they’ll be playing in single-digit conditions in Kansas City on Saturday. Will that help to slow down those offenses?

You would think that it would.

I remember the Seahawks-Vikings playoff game back in January of 2016, played in sub-zero conditions. Both teams passed for fewer than 150 yards, with the Seahawks winning 10-9. If Kansas City and Miami play that kind of game, there will be more misses than hits for fantasy purposes.

But one game is hardly statistically significant. Consider the chart below. It shows the last 18 games played in temperatures of 10 degrees or less. The scores trend lower, but not by as much as I would have thought.

There are 36 teams listed, and they averaged 19.7 points. That’s a couple of points lower than you would expect under ideal conditions. But not necessarily a dealbreaker. Travis Kelce, as one example, will be running plenty of short routes in the middle of the field; I don’t think his numbers will suffer.

Tua Tagovailoa is an undersized quarterback from Hawaii. He looks like a guy I would have very little interest in for this week. (He wasn’t all that effective in the earlier game against this defense, in better conditions.)

On the chart below, there’s one game in which both teams scored 30-plus points. As luck would have it, it’s Miami at Kansas City (back in 2008).

COLD WEATHER GAMES
YearWinnerLoserScoreTemp
2000at Kansas CityDenver20-79
2000at CincinnatiJacksonville17-149
2003at New EnglandTennessee17-144
2007NY Giantsat Green Bay23-20 (OT)-1
2008Houstonat Green Bay24-213
2008Miamiat Kansas City38-3110
2008at ChicagoGreen Bay20-17 (OT)2
2013at Green BayAtlanta22-219
2013at ChicagoDallas45-288
2013San Franciscoat Green Bay23-205
2015Seattleat Minnesota10-9-6
2016Tennesseeat Kansas City19-171
2017Minnesotaat Green Bay16-010
2017at IndianapolisHouston22-139
2021at BuffaloNew England47-177
2022Buffaloat Chicago35-137
2022New Orleansat Cleveland17-106
2022at PittsburghLas Vegas13-109

—Ian Allan

13 Reader Comments:

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2024-01-09T22:18:10Z
I am more worried about Buffalo-Pittsburgh. Early forecast suggests not only snow but also 25 mph winds.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2024-01-09T22:36:36Z
Maybe we need to start thinking more about the possibility of Pittsburgh making that game competitive. They have the best conventional running game of any of the 12 teams playing this weekend. They averaged 145 rushing yards in their last 10 games. If the conditions are crappy, maybe they can muck things up, turning the game into more of an alley fight.

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2024-01-09T22:59:01Z
Which team could,will play Balt Ravens week tw0??

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2024-01-09T23:16:51Z
Ravens will play lowest remaining seed. Some team other than KC or Buffalo.

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2024-01-10T00:46:08Z
We all know that. Let me re phrase the question.What team do you think will end up being the lowest seed and having to play the Ravens after week one in the AFC ??

Craig Larimer

Portland, OR
2024-01-10T01:12:14Z
Ben - most likely matchups are Cleveland at Balt and KC at Buffalo on Divisional weekend.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2024-01-10T01:41:24Z
Ben - Playoff ReDrafter numbers suggest we believe that Buffalo, Kansas City and Houston will all win. If that happens, Houston will go to Baltimore.

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2024-01-10T15:50:55Z
Thanks! I don't think Houston can beat Cleveland.Even Balt doesn't want to see Cleveland. What's your best guess on the NFC side???

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2024-01-10T16:27:19Z
It is hard to see anyone going into San Francisco and winning. I give Green Bay a little more chance of knocking off Dallas than Ian does (but if Dallas wins this game, I think they'll also advance to the championship game). Rams-Lions and Eagles-Bucs, we think both underdogs might win, but I don't think any of those teams is going to the Super Bowl.

We expect Houston to beat Cleveland. Big difference with Stroud playing (it was Case Keenum in the regular-season game). I know Cleveland won in Baltimore this year, but I think they'll get destroyed if they make it to that matchup again.

Ben Hogevoll

Siletz, OR
2024-01-10T16:45:59Z
I have a good feeling about the Rams.There running game is as good as 49rs and passing is also as good.49rs has better Def but I trust Stafford with his past experience more than Purdy.

Matt Mumford

Tillamook, OR
2024-01-10T16:53:13Z
I agree Ben!

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2024-01-10T17:01:06Z
I like the Rams too (at least this week, and maybe next). But with their D not being very good I think they'd lose a higher-scoring game at San Fran (and maybe at Dallas next week).

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2024-01-11T02:07:24Z
I should correct that…Rams can’t play at Dallas next week. If they win they go to San Francisco, unless Green Bay beats Dallas (in which case GB goes to San Fran and the Rams go to the TB-Philly winner)
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