I am a little nervous about the Dallas Cowboys, touchdown favorites over visiting Green Bay. Despite having a lot of good teams in the past 30 years, they haven't advanced past the Divisional Round since the 1995 postseason, and they've lost in the first round more often than not. And they're facing a quarterback in Jordan Love who's playing very well.
In the second half of the season, few quarterbacks have played better than the Packers' first-year starter. Looking at the final eight games for each quarterback (using the search tools at pro-football-reference.com), Love has passed for more yards than anyone but C.J. Stroud, and more touchdowns than anyone but Dak Prescott. He's thrown fewer interceptions than anyone.
Table is sorted by touchdown passes, and shows ranks in their final eight games for passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions.
| QUARTERBACKS, LAST EIGHT GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | PaYds | Rk | TD | Rk | Int | Rk |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 2101 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | 2150 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 2057 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 1951 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 2068 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 1911 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Derek Carr, N.O. | 1757 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 2308 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 1901 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1926 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 13 |
| Jake Browning, Cin. | 1936 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 15 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 2081 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 18 |
| Geno Smith, Sea. | 1979 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 3 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 1801 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 10 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 1883 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 1799 | 16 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 11 |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 2015 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 16 |
| Gardner Minshew, Ind. | 1778 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 7 |
Love had some easy matchups down the stretch, of course. Now he's in Dallas facing a top-5 pass defense. The Cowboys didn't lose at home all season, and they had DaRon Bland in the secondary, setting a record for interception return touchdowns, with 5.
But recent weeks have seen several quarterbacks go into Dallas and come away with good numbers. Geno Smith engaged in a memorable shootout. Jared Goff probably should have won in Dallas a week ago.
As I build my playoff rosters, I'm not including any Packers, and have to include CeeDee Lamb and perhaps Dak Prescott. Dallas should put up big numbers this week, and again next week, also at home, if they win.
But I'm not going to be stunned if Green Bay at least makes things interesting. Hopefully Mike McCarthy (and if not him, the team leaders, like Dak) has the team ready to play.
--Andy Richardson