They’ll be kicking off in two days in Arrowhead, and the weather forecast continues to indicate conditions will be brutal, with an expected daytime high of 8 degrees. How might that affect the offenses of those teams?
I did a quick look at this issue earlier in the week, checking numbers that indicate that over the last 25 years, team playing in temperatures under 10 degrees have averaged 19.7 points. That’s 10 percent below what you would expect under regular conditions.
But with it now looking certain that this game will be played in frigid conditions, a more detailed look is merited. Are these teams also gaining fewer yards? And is the decline applying more to passing or rushing?
The numbers support the gut-feel guess that passing production will be down. Since 2000, 36 offenses have played in games where the temperature was 10 degrees or less at kickoff. They averaged 205 passing yards, with 46 TD passes (1.28 per game). That’s 32 fewer yards than the league average, and with a 12 percent decline in touchdown passes. (In the 2000-22 seasons, teams averaged 237 passing yards and 1.45 TD passes per game).
While there aren’t a ton of numbers here, the stats don’t indicate that a warm-weather team like Miami is at any enhanced disadvantage. There are seven teams on the list from warmer climates (tagged with black dots), and they went 4-3 in their games, with production slightly better than the other 29 teams.
| COLD-WEATHER GAMES -- PASSING | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Offense | Deg | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2000 | • Jacksonville | 9 | at Cin. | L 14-17 | 19 | 28 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
| 2000 | Cincinnati | 9 | Jac. | W 17-14 | 10 | 22 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
| 2000 | Denver | 9 | at K.C. | L 7-20 | 22 | 35 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
| 2000 | Kansas City | 9 | Den. | W 20-7 | 14 | 28 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | New England | 4 | Ten. | W 17-14 | 21 | 41 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
| 2003 | Tennessee | 4 | at N.E. | L 14-17 | 18 | 26 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Green Bay | -1 | NYG | L 20-23 | 19 | 35 | 236 | 2 | 2 |
| 2007 | NY Giants | -1 | at G.B. | W 23-20 | 21 | 40 | 243 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | • Houston | 3 | at G.B. | W 24-21 | 28 | 42 | 408 | 2 | 1 |
| 2008 | Green Bay | 3 | Hou. | L 21-24 | 19 | 30 | 279 | 2 | 1 |
| 2008 | • Miami | 10 | at K.C. | W 38-31 | 26 | 34 | 235 | 3 | 1 |
| 2008 | Chicago | 2 | G.B. | W 20-17 | 14 | 27 | 136 | 1 | 2 |
| 2008 | Green Bay | 2 | at Chi. | L 17-20 | 24 | 39 | 260 | 2 | 1 |
| 2008 | Kansas City | 10 | Mia. | L 31-38 | 20 | 41 | 312 | 2 | 3 |
| 2013 | • Atlanta | 9 | at G.B. | L 21-22 | 20 | 35 | 202 | 2 | 1 |
| 2013 | Chicago | 8 | Dall. | W 45-28 | 27 | 36 | 341 | 4 | 0 |
| 2013 | Dallas | 8 | at Chi. | L 28-45 | 14 | 25 | 130 | 3 | 0 |
| 2013 | Green Bay | 9 | Atl. | W 22-21 | 24 | 32 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | • San Francisco | 5 | at G.B. | W 23-20 | 16 | 30 | 214 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Green Bay | 5 | S.F. | L 20-23 | 17 | 26 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | Dallas | 0 | Det. | W 24-20 | 19 | 31 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014 | Detroit | 0 | at Dall. | L 20-24 | 28 | 42 | 307 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Minnesota | -6 | Sea. | L 9-10 | 17 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | Seattle | -6 | at Min. | W 10-9 | 13 | 26 | 129 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Kansas City | 1 | Ten. | L 17-19 | 15 | 28 | 159 | 0 | 1 |
| 2016 | Tennessee | 1 | at K.C. | W 19-17 | 19 | 33 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | Green Bay | 10 | Min. | L 0-16 | 17 | 40 | 126 | 0 | 2 |
| 2017 | Minnesota | 10 | at G.B. | W 16-0 | 14 | 25 | 124 | 1 | 0 |
| 2021 | Buffalo | 7 | N.E. | W 47-17 | 21 | 25 | 308 | 5 | 0 |
| 2021 | New England | 7 | at Buff. | L 17-47 | 24 | 38 | 216 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | • Las Vegas | 9 | at Pitt. | L 10-13 | 16 | 30 | 143 | 1 | 3 |
| 2022 | • New Orleans | 6 | at Cle. | W 17-10 | 8 | 15 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | Buffalo | 7 | at Chi. | W 35-13 | 15 | 26 | 172 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | Chicago | 7 | Buff. | L 13-35 | 18 | 28 | 129 | 1 | 1 |
| 2022 | Cleveland | 6 | N.O. | L 10-17 | 15 | 31 | 125 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | Pittsburgh | 9 | L.V. | W 13-10 | 26 | 39 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
While passing numbers have suffered in the cold, that hasn’t carried over into rushing production. Instead, they’ve actually been better. Teams have averaged 6 more yards per game, and with an 11 percent increase in rushing touchdowns. They’ve averaged almost a carry more per game (probably in part because it’s harder to pass), and they’ve averaged just a little more per carry).
As with the passing stats, there’s no indication that warm-weather teams (tagged with black dots) are at more of a disadvantage. Those teams averaged 126 rushing yards in those seven games, with 6 TD runs.
These numbers suggest that rather than downgrading guys like Isiah Pacheco, Raheem Mostert and DeVon Achane, those players should perhaps be elevated a notch. (Mostert’s health, of course, needs to be looked into, and it can be debated whether a speed back like Achane would translate as effectively into lesser conditions.)
| COLD WEATHER GAMES -- RUSHING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Deg | Opp | Result | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2000 | • Jacksonville | 9 | at Cin. | L 14-17 | 34 | 114 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 2000 | Cincinnati | 9 | Jac. | W 17-14 | 27 | 106 | 3.9 | 1 |
| 2000 | Denver | 9 | at K.C. | L 7-20 | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| 2000 | Kansas City | 9 | Den. | W 20-7 | 41 | 264 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 2003 | New England | 4 | Ten. | W 17-14 | 27 | 96 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2003 | Tennessee | 4 | at N.E. | L 14-17 | 26 | 84 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 2007 | Green Bay | -1 | NYG | L 20-23 | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 0 |
| 2007 | NY Giants | -1 | at G.B. | W 23-20 | 39 | 134 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 2008 | • Houston | 3 | at G.B. | W 24-21 | 31 | 141 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2008 | • Miami | 10 | at K.C. | W 38-31 | 30 | 168 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 2008 | Chicago | 2 | G.B. | W 20-17 | 26 | 74 | 2.8 | 1 |
| 2008 | Green Bay | 2 | at Chi. | L 17-20 | 29 | 65 | 2.2 | 0 |
| 2008 | Green Bay | 3 | Hou. | L 21-24 | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 2008 | Kansas City | 10 | Mia. | L 31-38 | 21 | 180 | 8.6 | 2 |
| 2013 | • Atlanta | 9 | at G.B. | L 21-22 | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 0 |
| 2013 | • San Francisco | 5 | at G.B. | W 23-20 | 30 | 167 | 5.6 | 1 |
| 2013 | Chicago | 8 | Dall. | W 45-28 | 32 | 149 | 4.7 | 1 |
| 2013 | Dallas | 8 | at Chi. | L 28-45 | 28 | 198 | 7.1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Green Bay | 9 | Atl. | W 22-21 | 33 | 112 | 3.4 | 1 |
| 2013 | Green Bay | 5 | S.F. | L 20-23 | 31 | 124 | 4.0 | 1 |
| 2014 | Dallas | 0 | Det. | W 24-20 | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 1 |
| 2014 | Detroit | 0 | at Dall. | L 20-24 | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Minnesota | -6 | Sea. | L 9-10 | 29 | 58 | 2.0 | 0 |
| 2015 | Seattle | -6 | at Min. | W 10-9 | 28 | 97 | 3.5 | 0 |
| 2016 | Kansas City | 1 | Ten. | L 17-19 | 28 | 157 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 2016 | Tennessee | 1 | at K.C. | W 19-17 | 29 | 148 | 5.1 | 2 |
| 2017 | Green Bay | 10 | Min. | L 0-16 | 24 | 113 | 4.7 | 0 |
| 2017 | Minnesota | 10 | at G.B. | W 16-0 | 33 | 112 | 3.4 | 0 |
| 2021 | Buffalo | 7 | N.E. | W 47-17 | 29 | 174 | 6.0 | 2 |
| 2021 | New England | 7 | at Buff. | L 17-47 | 20 | 89 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2022 | • Las Vegas | 9 | at Pitt. | L 10-13 | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| 2022 | • New Orleans | 6 | at Cle. | W 17-10 | 39 | 152 | 3.9 | 2 |
| 2022 | Buffalo | 7 | at Chi. | W 35-13 | 31 | 254 | 8.2 | 3 |
| 2022 | Chicago | 7 | Buff. | L 13-35 | 29 | 80 | 2.8 | 0 |
| 2022 | Cleveland | 6 | N.O. | L 10-17 | 34 | 124 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2022 | Pittsburgh | 9 | L.V. | W 13-10 | 27 | 106 | 3.9 | 0 |
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan