C.J. Stroud hasn’t even completed his first season, but at this point, it seems fair to compare him to guys like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. If you were starting an NFL team (or picking players in a dynasty league) you might reasonably select Stroud before those guys.
The first-year numbers were pretty remarkable, including 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Playoff performance, of course, carries extra weight, and he took apart a good Cleveland defense on Saturday (and with his second-best receiver, Tank Dell, out for the season).
I like that Stroud is delivering on downfield throws. He’s challenging defenses, rather than simply checking it down, averaging 12.9 yards per completion.
Factoring in incompletions, Stroud averaged 8.2 yards per attempt in the regular season. In the 32-team era, 66 other rookie quarterbacks have attempted at least 200 passes, and only two averaged more yards per attempt – Ben Roethlisberger and the quarterback who preceded Stroud in Houston.
I will concede that yards per attempt hasn’t been a perfect predictive metric. There have been 15 other quarterbacks who’ve averaged over 7 yards per attempt as rookies, and over half have had careers that didn’t prove to be stellar, including Marcus Mariota, Matt McGloin, Mac Jones and Jameis Winston. But the hit-miss ratio is better at the top of the list than down at the bottom.
With only 5 interceptions in 499 pass attempts, Stroud also finishes with the 2nd-best interception rate of these 67 quarterbacks, trailing only 2016 Dak Prescott. Part of that impressive number can be attributed to the game changing. Four rookie quarterbacks were regular starters this year (I’ve got them flagged with dots) and all ranked in the top dozen in interception percentage – teams don’t throw as many picks as they did in the past.
Regardless, Stroud sure looks good right now. One of the first five quarterbacks you would select in a dynasty league, I think. I guess the biggest question mark for the offseason would be if they can keep Bobby Slowik in place. He seems to be the next Kevin O’Connell or Mike McDaniel, and Stroud will look better in 2024 if they keep Slowik in place at offensive coordinator.
ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS -- YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Com | Att | Yards | Pct | TD | Int | YPA |
2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 196 | 295 | 2,621 | 66.4 | 17 | 11 | 8.88 |
2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 126 | 204 | 1,699 | 61.8 | 19 | 8 | 8.33 |
2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 319 | 499 | 4,108 | 63.9 | 23 | 5 | 8.23 |
2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 258 | 393 | 3,200 | 65.6 | 20 | 5 | 8.14 |
2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 311 | 459 | 3,667 | 67.8 | 23 | 4 | 7.99 |
2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 252 | 393 | 3,118 | 64.1 | 26 | 10 | 7.93 |
2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 265 | 434 | 3,440 | 61.1 | 16 | 11 | 7.93 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 310 | 517 | 4,051 | 60.0 | 21 | 17 | 7.84 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 310 | 486 | 3,725 | 63.8 | 27 | 14 | 7.66 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 230 | 370 | 2,818 | 62.2 | 19 | 10 | 7.62 |
2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 312 | 535 | 4,042 | 58.3 | 22 | 15 | 7.56 |
2013 | Matt McGloin, Oak. | 118 | 211 | 1,547 | 55.9 | 8 | 8 | 7.33 |
2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 352 | 521 | 3,801 | 67.6 | 22 | 13 | 7.30 |
2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 396 | 595 | 4,336 | 66.6 | 31 | 10 | 7.29 |
2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 259 | 402 | 2,919 | 64.4 | 14 | 12 | 7.26 |
2010 | Colt McCoy, Cle. | 135 | 222 | 1,576 | 60.8 | 6 | 9 | 7.10 |
2023 | • Will Levis, Ten. | 149 | 255 | 1,808 | 58.4 | 8 | 4 | 7.09 |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 339 | 627 | 4,374 | 54.1 | 23 | 18 | 6.98 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 285 | 470 | 3,271 | 60.6 | 21 | 6 | 6.96 |
2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 257 | 428 | 2,971 | 60.0 | 14 | 12 | 6.94 |
2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 159 | 270 | 1,870 | 58.9 | 7 | 10 | 6.93 |
2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 239 | 414 | 2,865 | 57.7 | 17 | 15 | 6.92 |
2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 247 | 443 | 3,046 | 55.8 | 12 | 21 | 6.88 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 349 | 542 | 3,722 | 64.4 | 20 | 12 | 6.87 |
2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 282 | 484 | 3,294 | 58.3 | 12 | 13 | 6.81 |
2002 | Patrick Ramsey, Was. | 117 | 227 | 1,539 | 51.5 | 9 | 8 | 6.78 |
2021 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 263 | 394 | 2,664 | 66.8 | 16 | 10 | 6.76 |
2006 | Matt Leinart, Ari. | 214 | 377 | 2,547 | 56.8 | 11 | 12 | 6.76 |
2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 239 | 418 | 2,819 | 57.2 | 14 | 16 | 6.74 |
2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 119 | 203 | 1,365 | 58.6 | 7 | 7 | 6.72 |
2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 196 | 364 | 2,444 | 53.8 | 12 | 20 | 6.71 |
2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 264 | 404 | 2,688 | 65.3 | 13 | 5 | 6.65 |
2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 196 | 330 | 2,193 | 59.4 | 7 | 7 | 6.65 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 284 | 459 | 3,027 | 61.9 | 24 | 12 | 6.59 |
2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 300 | 516 | 3,398 | 58.1 | 20 | 13 | 6.59 |
2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 297 | 517 | 3,385 | 57.4 | 14 | 17 | 6.55 |
2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 169 | 320 | 2,074 | 52.8 | 10 | 12 | 6.48 |
2023 | • Aidan O'Connell, L.V. | 213 | 343 | 2,218 | 62.1 | 12 | 7 | 6.47 |
2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 180 | 306 | 1,972 | 58.8 | 11 | 9 | 6.44 |
2012 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 161 | 265 | 1,699 | 60.8 | 6 | 5 | 6.41 |
2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 158 | 290 | 1,855 | 54.5 | 10 | 18 | 6.40 |
2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 123 | 224 | 1,430 | 54.9 | 4 | 6 | 6.38 |
2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 158 | 291 | 1,853 | 54.3 | 13 | 13 | 6.37 |
2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 247 | 416 | 2,608 | 59.4 | 19 | 9 | 6.27 |
2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 186 | 290 | 1,814 | 64.1 | 11 | 5 | 6.26 |
2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 379 | 607 | 3,782 | 62.4 | 16 | 14 | 6.23 |
2002 | Chad Hutchinson, Dall. | 127 | 250 | 1,555 | 50.8 | 7 | 8 | 6.22 |
2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 245 | 389 | 2,404 | 63.0 | 7 | 9 | 6.18 |
2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 184 | 357 | 2,199 | 51.5 | 12 | 13 | 6.16 |
2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 280 | 475 | 2,908 | 58.9 | 11 | 17 | 6.12 |
2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 213 | 383 | 2,334 | 55.6 | 9 | 11 | 6.09 |
2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | 255 | 476 | 2,894 | 53.6 | 11 | 22 | 6.08 |
2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 151 | 269 | 1,630 | 56.1 | 7 | 8 | 6.06 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 359 | 602 | 3,641 | 59.6 | 12 | 17 | 6.05 |
2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 201 | 377 | 2,267 | 53.3 | 13 | 20 | 6.01 |
2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 354 | 590 | 3,512 | 60.0 | 18 | 15 | 5.95 |
2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 233 | 444 | 2,592 | 52.5 | 9 | 15 | 5.84 |
2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 217 | 393 | 2,278 | 55.2 | 11 | 14 | 5.80 |
2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 116 | 224 | 1,260 | 51.8 | 7 | 9 | 5.63 |
2023 | • Bryce Young, Car. | 315 | 527 | 2,877 | 59.8 | 11 | 10 | 5.46 |
2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 348 | 599 | 3,270 | 58.1 | 21 | 12 | 5.46 |
2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 210 | 413 | 2,214 | 50.8 | 12 | 11 | 5.36 |
2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 215 | 429 | 2,294 | 50.1 | 12 | 16 | 5.35 |
2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 112 | 205 | 1,089 | 54.6 | 5 | 7 | 5.31 |
2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 157 | 299 | 1,558 | 52.5 | 3 | 9 | 5.21 |
2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 190 | 368 | 1,869 | 51.6 | 9 | 13 | 5.08 |
2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 177 | 328 | 1,661 | 54.0 | 9 | 9 | 5.06 |
—Ian Allan