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C.J. Stroud

Houston quarterback looking like next franchise quarterback

C.J. Stroud hasn’t even completed his first season, but at this point, it seems fair to compare him to guys like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. If you were starting an NFL team (or picking players in a dynasty league) you might reasonably select Stroud before those guys.

The first-year numbers were pretty remarkable, including 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Playoff performance, of course, carries extra weight, and he took apart a good Cleveland defense on Saturday (and with his second-best receiver, Tank Dell, out for the season).

I like that Stroud is delivering on downfield throws. He’s challenging defenses, rather than simply checking it down, averaging 12.9 yards per completion.

Factoring in incompletions, Stroud averaged 8.2 yards per attempt in the regular season. In the 32-team era, 66 other rookie quarterbacks have attempted at least 200 passes, and only two averaged more yards per attempt – Ben Roethlisberger and the quarterback who preceded Stroud in Houston.

I will concede that yards per attempt hasn’t been a perfect predictive metric. There have been 15 other quarterbacks who’ve averaged over 7 yards per attempt as rookies, and over half have had careers that didn’t prove to be stellar, including Marcus Mariota, Matt McGloin, Mac Jones and Jameis Winston. But the hit-miss ratio is better at the top of the list than down at the bottom.

With only 5 interceptions in 499 pass attempts, Stroud also finishes with the 2nd-best interception rate of these 67 quarterbacks, trailing only 2016 Dak Prescott. Part of that impressive number can be attributed to the game changing. Four rookie quarterbacks were regular starters this year (I’ve got them flagged with dots) and all ranked in the top dozen in interception percentage – teams don’t throw as many picks as they did in the past.

Regardless, Stroud sure looks good right now. One of the first five quarterbacks you would select in a dynasty league, I think. I guess the biggest question mark for the offseason would be if they can keep Bobby Slowik in place. He seems to be the next Kevin O’Connell or Mike McDaniel, and Stroud will look better in 2024 if they keep Slowik in place at offensive coordinator.

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS -- YARDS PER PASS ATTEMPT
YearPlayerComAttYardsPctTDIntYPA
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.1962952,62166.417118.88
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.1262041,69961.81988.33
2023C.J. Stroud, Hou.3194994,10863.92358.23
2012Robert Griffin, Was.2583933,20065.62058.14
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.3114593,66767.82347.99
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.2523933,11864.126107.93
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.2654343,44061.116117.93
2011Cam Newton, Car.3105174,05160.021177.84
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.3104863,72563.827147.66
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.2303702,81862.219107.62
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.3125354,04258.322157.56
2013Matt McGloin, Oak.1182111,54755.9887.33
2021Mac Jones, N.E.3525213,80167.622137.30
2020Justin Herbert, LAC3965954,33666.631107.29
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Min.2594022,91964.414127.26
2010Colt McCoy, Cle.1352221,57660.8697.10
2023• Will Levis, Ten.1492551,80858.4847.09
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.3396274,37454.123186.98
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.2854703,27160.62166.96
2008Joe Flacco, Balt.2574282,97160.014126.94
2021Justin Fields, Chi.1592701,87058.97106.93
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ2394142,86557.717156.92
2013Geno Smith, NYJ2474433,04655.812216.88
2019Kyler Murray, Ari.3495423,72264.420126.87
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.2824843,29458.312136.81
2002Patrick Ramsey, Was.1172271,53951.5986.78
2021Davis Mills, Hou.2633942,66466.816106.76
2006Matt Leinart, Ari.2143772,54756.811126.76
2003Byron Leftwich, Jac.2394182,81957.214166.74
2019Dwayne Haskins, Was.1192031,36558.6776.72
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ1963642,44453.812206.71
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.2644042,68865.31356.65
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.1963302,19359.4776.65
2019Daniel Jones, NYG2844593,02761.924126.59
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.3005163,39858.120136.59
2012Brandon Weeden, Cle.2975173,38557.414176.55
2018Josh Allen, Buff.1693202,07452.810126.48
2023• Aidan O'Connell, L.V.2133432,21862.11276.47
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.1803061,97258.81196.44
2012Nick Foles, Phil.1612651,69960.8656.41
2009Josh Freeman, T.B.1582901,85554.510186.40
2017C.J. Beathard, S.F.1232241,43054.9466.38
2011Christian Ponder, Min.1582911,85354.313136.37
2013Mike Glennon, T.B.2474162,60859.41996.27
2020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.1862901,81464.11156.26
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.3796073,78262.416146.23
2002Chad Hutchinson, Dall.1272501,55550.8786.22
2022Kenny Pickett, Pitt.2453892,40463.0796.18
2006Vince Young, Ten.1843572,19951.512136.16
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.2804752,90858.911176.12
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ2133832,33455.69116.09
2017DeShone Kizer, Cle.2554762,89453.611226.08
2007Trent Edwards, Buff.1512691,63056.1786.06
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.3596023,64159.612176.05
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.2013772,26753.313206.01
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.3545903,51260.018155.95
2002David Carr, Hou.2334442,59252.59155.84
2018Josh Rosen, Ari.2173932,27855.211145.80
2003Kyle Boller, Balt.1162241,26051.8795.63
2023• Bryce Young, Car.3155272,87759.811105.46
2014Derek Carr, Oak.3485993,27058.121125.46
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.2104132,21450.812115.36
2002Joey Harrington, Det.2154292,29450.112165.35
2016Jared Goff, LAR1122051,08954.6575.31
2010Jimmy Clausen, Car.1572991,55852.5395.21
2005Kyle Orton, Chi.1903681,86951.69135.08
2006Bruce Gradkowski, T.B.1773281,66154.0995.06

—Ian Allan

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