Followup to yesterday's article. Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield just had big years. Goff had been there before, but it was Mayfield's first notable season, fantasy or otherwise, in the sixth year of his career. What might the future hold for him?
To answer this, I took at look at all quarterbacks since 1990, pulling out the guys who had their first top-12 fantasy season (a QB1, as they say) in the fifth year of their career or later. That gave me a nice list of players. A lot of them -- most of them -- were not No. 1 overall picks who started quickly, like Mayfield, but guys who put in their time as backup quarterbacks before getting a chance to start a few years into their careers, and made the most of it.
Alex Smith was a name I mentioned yesterday, and he was a No. 1 overall pick, who didn't have a top-12 fantasy season until Year 13, when he was 33 years old. That was his only such season, with injuries (and not working with Andy Reid) factors.
Geno Smith (pictured) was a guy who I should have thought of initially, stumbling around for years before leading Seattle to the playoffs last season, his 10th year in the league.
In total, I came up with 22 guys whose breakout season (since 1990) came from Year 5 onward. Of those 22 quarterbacks, more than half (13) went on to have at least one more top-12 season. Mayfield and Smith could join that group, making for about a 66 percent success rate.
Those 22 quarterback are shown below. Guys who went on to have multiple top-12 seasons are in bold.
| LATE BLOOMER QUARTERBACKS, 1990-2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Age | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2023 | Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 6 | 28 | 4044 | 28 | 163 | 1 | 12 |
| 2022 | Geno Smith, Sea. | 10 | 32 | 4282 | 30 | 366 | 1 | 5 |
| 2017 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 13 | 33 | 4042 | 26 | 355 | 1 | 6 |
| 2011 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff. | 7 | 29 | 3832 | 24 | 215 | 0 | 11 |
| 2009 | Matt Schaub, Hou. | 6 | 28 | 4770 | 29 | 57 | 0 | 3 |
| 2008 | David Garrard, Jac. | 7 | 30 | 3620 | 15 | 322 | 2 | 9 |
| 2007 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 5 | 27 | 4211 | 36 | 129 | 2 | 2 |
| 2004 | Jake Delhomme, Car. | 6 | 29 | 3886 | 29 | 71 | 1 | 7 |
| 2003 | Matt Hasselbeck, Sea. | 6 | 28 | 3841 | 26 | 125 | 2 | 3 |
| 2001 | Jay Fiedler, Mia. | 8 | 30 | 3290 | 20 | 321 | 4 | 9 |
| 2000 | Kerry Collins, NYG | 6 | 28 | 3610 | 22 | 65 | 1 | 10 |
| 1999 | Elvis Grbac, K.C. | 7 | 29 | 3389 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 1999 | Rich Gannon, Oak. | 13 | 34 | 3840 | 24 | 298 | 2 | 3 |
| 1999 | Doug Flutie, Buff. | 15 | 37 | 3171 | 19 | 476 | 1 | 7 |
| 1998 | Trent Dilfer, T.B. | 5 | 26 | 2729 | 21 | 141 | 2 | 12 |
| 1998 | Trent Green, Was. | 6 | 28 | 3441 | 23 | 117 | 2 | 8 |
| 1995 | Scott Mitchell, Det. | 6 | 27 | 4338 | 32 | 104 | 4 | 2 |
| 1995 | Erik Kramer, Chi. | 9 | 31 | 3838 | 29 | 39 | 1 | 6 |
| 1995 | Steve Bono, K.C. | 11 | 33 | 3121 | 21 | 113 | 5 | 11 |
| 1993 | Steve Beuerlein, Phx. | 7 | 28 | 3164 | 18 | 45 | 0 | 10 |
| 1993 | Jeff Hostetler, Oak. | 10 | 32 | 3242 | 14 | 202 | 5 | 5 |
| 1992 | Chris Chandler, Phx. | 5 | 27 | 2832 | 15 | 149 | 1 | 12 |
--Andy Richardson