For this weekend, I will go with Nico Collins over Stefon Diggs. Diggs is more experienced and playing at home, but Collins is playing better right now, and I prefer the matchup.
For recent form, it’s really no contest. The Bills have struggled to get Diggs involved, and the passes he’s caught have tended to be shorter and less impactful. He’s averaged 4.9 catches for 45 yards in his last nine games, with only one touchdown. Since switching coordinators, Diggs has caught one touchdown in eight games.
With Collins, on the other hand, the offense is designed to get him the ball, and they’re getting him downfield for high-payoff connections. He averaged 16.2 yards per catch in the regular season. And he’s been smoking hot recently. In his last six full games with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, Collins has averaged 7.5 catches for 122 yards, with 4 TDs.
This weekend, both are facing good defenses that have been strong against the pass. Kansas City ranked 4th against the pass in regular season, allowing only 197 yards per game, and with only 19 touchdown passes. Baltimore ranked 8th in pass defense, allowing 219 yards per week, and with only 18 TDs.
When it comes to playing against good receivers, the Kansas City defense is the tougher matchup. It was able to hold Davante Adams and A.J. Brown to only 1 catch each, and it limited Justin Jefferson to 3 catches for 28 yards in a game at Minnesota (he got hurt in that game, but not until late). And KC played very well against Diggs when they saw him earlier, with him catching only 4 of the 11 passes thrown his way, for 24 yards.
Collins, on the other hand, played reasonably well in his earlier game at Baltimore, catching 6 passes for 80 yards back in Week 1.
Consider the chart below. It shows the most notable receivers who played against the Baltimore and Kansas City defenses. Subjectively determined, I will concede. In my initial compilation of the list, I came up with 41 players, so I tossed in Josh Downs of the Colts to bring it up to an even 21 receivers facing each defense.
The 21 receivers facing the Ravens were a lot more productive, combining for 123 catches for 1,407 yards and 6 TDs. The 21 comparable receivers facing Kansas City caught one more touchdown, but with 31 fewer catches and 371 fewer yards.
Those 42 wide receiver games are listed below. Nine of the top 14 fewer playing against Baltimore, and nine of the bottom 13 were playing against Kansas City. (To make the KC receivers stand out more, I have tagged them with black dots.)
I will go Collins over Diggs.
| GOOD RECEIVERS AGAINST BALTIMORE & KANSAS CITY | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Opp | Result | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR |
| Tee Higgins, Cin. | v. Balt. | L 24-27 | 12 | 8 | 89 | 2 | 28.9 |
| • Christian Watson, G.B. | v. K.C. | W 27-19 | 9 | 7 | 71 | 2 | 26.1 |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | at Balt. | L 31-37 | 10 | 8 | 115 | 1 | 25.5 |
| George Pickens, Pitt. | v. Balt. | W 17-10 | 10 | 6 | 130 | 1 | 25.0 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | v. Balt. | L 10-20 | 16 | 14 | 106 | 0 | 24.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | at Balt. | L 6-38 | 19 | 13 | 102 | 0 | 23.2 |
| • Christian Kirk, Jac. | v. K.C. | L 9-17 | 14 | 11 | 110 | 0 | 22.0 |
| • Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | v. K.C. | L 17-31 | 7 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 19.9 |
| • Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | at K.C. | W 21-20 | 9 | 6 | 71 | 1 | 19.1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | v. Balt. | L 19-33 | 7 | 6 | 113 | 0 | 17.3 |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | at Balt. | W 22-19 | 11 | 9 | 77 | 0 | 16.7 |
| • DeVonta Smith, Phil. | at K.C. | W 21-17 | 8 | 6 | 99 | 0 | 15.9 |
| Amari Cooper, Cle. | at Balt. | W 33-31 | 9 | 6 | 98 | 0 | 15.8 |
| Marquise Brown, Ari. | v. Balt. | L 24-31 | 9 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 15.3 |
| • Garrett Wilson, NYJ | v. K.C. | L 20-23 | 14 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 15.0 |
| • Courtland Sutton, Den. | at K.C. | L 8-19 | 6 | 4 | 46 | 1 | 14.6 |
| • Tyreek Hill, Mia. | at K.C. | L 14-21 | 10 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 14.2 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | at Balt. | L 9-25 | 11 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Josh Downs, Ind. | at Balt. | W 22-19 | 12 | 8 | 57 | 0 | 13.7 |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | at Balt. | L 19-56 | 12 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 13.6 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | at Balt. | L 31-37 | 9 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 13.4 |
| • DJ Moore, Chi. | at K.C. | L 10-41 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 13.1 |
| • Davante Adams, L.V. | v. K.C. | L 17-31 | 7 | 5 | 73 | 0 | 12.3 |
| • Courtland Sutton, Den. | v. K.C. | W 24-9 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 10.9 |
| • Keenan Allen, LAC | at K.C. | L 17-31 | 9 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 9.5 |
| JaMarr Chase, Cin. | at Balt. | L 20-34 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 9.2 |
| Calvin Ridley, Jac. | v. Balt. | L 7-23 | 12 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 8.9 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | v. Balt. | L 19-33 | 12 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 8.7 |
| JaMarr Chase, Cin. | v. Balt. | L 24-27 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 8.1 |
| • Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | at K.C. | W 20-14 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 7.2 |
| • Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | at K.C. | L 14-21 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 7.2 |
| • JaMarr Chase, Cin. | at K.C. | L 17-25 | 7 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 7.1 |
| • Stefon Diggs, Buff. | at K.C. | W 20-17 | 11 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 6.4 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | at Balt. | L 3-37 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | at Balt. | L 3-37 | 4 | 1 | 50 | 0 | 6.0 |
| • Justin Jefferson, Min. | v. K.C. | L 20-27 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 5.8 |
| • Calvin Ridley, Jac. | v. K.C. | L 9-17 | 8 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Ten. | v. Balt. | L 16-24 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.0 |
| • Tee Higgins, Cin. | at K.C. | L 17-25 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| Amari Cooper, Cle. | v. Balt. | L 3-28 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| • A.J. Brown, Phil. | at K.C. | W 21-17 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| • Davante Adams, L.V. | at K.C. | W 20-14 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
—Ian Allan