Fantasy Index Weekly

January 26, 2024

Championship Game Rankings

Is it Lamar's time?

We've previewed all four teams over the last few days; now it's time to generate the rankings that result from those projections. A lot of 49ers position players grade out best. They've got a question mark at quarterback, but they're definitely facing the leakiest defense.

A few injury developments over the course of the week are factored in. The final injury reports won't come out until later this afternoon, but we can make some guesses as to who will or won't be playing.

For Baltimore, Mark Andrews (ankle) has practiced fully the last two days. He should play. There's an injury discount built in; second tight end Isaiah Likely will play more than he would have if Andrews was 100 percent, I think. But Andrews is the preferred option of those two.
For San Francisco, Deebo Samuel (shoulder) got in a limited practice yesterday. That's not necessarily a big deal -- getting in a limited practice probably means he was running around but not getting hit, and that's something the Lions won't cooperate with in the game on Sunday. But seems like he'll be active, perhaps wearing a harness of some sort, and maybe running routes -- maybe. Where he's ranked, he doesn't look like a great option, but it takes a little bit of the shine of Jauan Jennings. (In general though, I expect Deebo to be more of a decoy, if he's active at all.)
Kalif Raymond (knee) hasn't practiced for Detroit and probably isn't playing. Josh Reynolds (rib) has been limited, but is expected to play.
Isiah Pacheco (toe) hasn't practiced for Kansas City. He says he's definitely playing, and I expect he'll practice today. But slightly more of the running back numbers have been assigned to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Kadarius Toney practiced Wednesday then was limited on Thursday; who knows with him.

Here are the rankings (PPR scoring), with the assumption that those aforementioned players will be active, and everyone else is pretty much healthy for those teams.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME RANKINGS
Pos	Tm	Player	Pass	Rec	Run	TD	PPR
QB	BAL	Lamar Jackson	213	0	53	1.54	22.8
RB	SF	Christian McCaffrey	0	32	81	1.21	22.3
QB	KC	Patrick Mahomes	248	0	23	1.76	21.9
QB	SF	Brock Purdy	262	0	10	1.84	21.7
WR	DET	Amon-Ra St.Brown	0	88	2	.45	18.8
QB	DET	Jared Goff	248	0	1	1.26	17.5
WR	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	0	85	0	.53	16.6
TE	KC	Travis Kelce	1	68	0	.52	16.3
WR	KC	Rashee Rice	0	65	0	.41	14.4
RB	DET	Jahmyr Gibbs	0	20	54	.57	14.1
TE	SF	George Kittle	0	66	0	.39	13.4
RB	KC	Isiah Pacheco	0	15	52	.47	12.3
RB	BAL	Gus Edwards	0	9	49	.77	11.4
WR	BAL	Zay Flowers	0	45	3	.26	10.4
RB	DET	David Montgomery	0	8	55	.49	10.2
TE	DET	Sam LaPorta	0	38	0	.30	9.1
WR	SF	Jauan Jennings	0	45	0	.21	9.0
PK	BAL	Justin Tucker	0	0	0	.00	8.0
TE	BAL	Mark Andrews	0	34	0	.25	7.8
PK	KC	Harrison Butker	0	0	0	.00	7.2
WR	DET	Jameson Williams	0	35	3	.16	7.1
PK	SF	Jake Moody	0	0	0	.00	7.0
WR	DET	Josh Reynolds	0	38	0	.15	7.0
WR	BAL	Odell Beckham	1	32	0	.17	6.3
PK	DET	Michael Badgley	0	0	0	.00	6.2
RB	BAL	Justice Hill	0	13	18	.12	5.5
RB	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	0	13	17	.12	5.3
WR	SF	Deebo Samuel	0	21	5	.21	5.2
WR	KC	Justin Watson	0	25	0	.19	5.2
TE	BAL	Isaiah Likely	0	24	0	.17	5.1
WR	KC	Mecole Hardman	0	15	2	.10	5.1
RB	BAL	Dalvin Cook	0	9	18	.14	4.9
WR	BAL	Nelson Agholor	0	22	0	.14	4.9
WR	BAL	Rashod Bateman	0	19	1	.11	4.3
TE	KC	Noah Gray	0	16	0	.14	3.9
WR	KC	M. Valdes-Scantling	0	18	0	.07	3.4
TE	DET	Zach Ertz	0	10	0	.06	2.5
RB	SF	Kyle Juszczyk	0	8	0	.11	2.4
RB	SF	Elijah Mitchell	0	1	17	.06	2.3
WR	KC	Richie James	0	8	0	.05	1.8
WR	DET	D. Peoples-Jones	0	8	0	.04	1.5
WR	KC	Kadarius Toney	0	5	0	.03	1.5
TE	BAL	Charlie Kolar	0	4	0	.02	.9
RB	BAL	Patrick Ricard	0	3	0	.01	.8
TE	DET	James Mitchell	0	4	0	.01	.8
WR	DET	Antoine Green	0	3	0	.01	.6
WR	SF	Ray-Ray McCloud	0	3	0	.01	.5
WR	BAL	Devin Duvernay	0	1	0	.00	.3
RB	KC	LaMical Perine	0	1	0	.01	.3
WR	SF	Ronnie Bell	0	2	0	.01	.3
WR	SF	Chris Conley	0	2	0	.00	.3
TE	KC	Blake Bell	0	1	0	.01	.3
TE	SF	Charlie Woerner	0	1	0	.01	.3
WR	KC	Justyn Ross	0	1	0	.01	.2
QB	SF	Sam Darnold	3	0	0	.02	.2
QB	KC	Blaine Gabbert	3	0	0	.02	.2
RB	SF	Jordan Mason	0	0	1	.01	.2
QB	DET	Teddy Bridgewater	2	0	0	.01	.1
RB	DET	Craig Reynolds	0	0	0	.00	.1
QB	BAL	Tyler Huntley	1	0	0	.01	.1
TE	SF	Brayden Willis	0	0	0	.00	.1

For defenses, I'm going with Baltimore as the top group, but it's close. They had the most production during the season (first in both sacks and takeaways), but are facing the most accomplished and playoff-savvy quarterback. Detroit had the least production this year, but gets the most favorable matchup. Rankings assume 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for all touchdowns. Points allowed are also factored in, part of why Detroit (anticipated to allow the most points) shows up last.

TEAM DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS RANKINGS
Team	Take	Fum	Int	Pts	Sack	TD D	TD K	FPG P
Baltimore	1.15	.50	.65	21.0	2.3	.08	.03	6.76
San Francisco	1.35	.60	.75	22.0	2.1	.08	.01	6.36
Kansas City	1.15	.55	.60	24.0	2.8	.11	.02	5.89
Detroit	1.35	.50	.85	28.0	2.0	.10	.01	3.36

—Andy Richardson

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