There’s a school of thought proclaiming that Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell should have opted to kick field goals in two fourth-down situations during the second half of the National Football Conference Championship Game versus the San Francisco 49ers. The simple math says that getting six points from those two kicks would have been enough to bring them to Super Bowl LVIII.
With the Niners attempting a comeback, stretching the lead to a three-score game with nearly 22 minutes left in regulation might have dampened the home team’s spirits. Instead, they erased a 17-point deficit and won their right to play the Kansas City Chiefs in Las Vegas.
However, two reasons may have guided Campbell’s decision to go for it on fourth down twice. First, they’ve been that way throughout the season. Second, placekicker Michael Badgley isn’t reliable from long range.
Indianapolis Star’s Nate Atkins quantified the logic behind both statements. He shared that the Detroit Lions went 17 of 22 this season on fourth-and-3 or shorter situations. Atkins added that Badgley was nine out of 20 from field goal tries of at least 48 yards, the worst among high-volume kickers in league history.
The Lions were 15 of 20 (75%) at converting 4th and 3 or fewer in the regular season, plus 2 of 2 in the postseason.
— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) January 29, 2024
Michael Badgley was 9 of 20 (45%) in his career from 48+ yards. Worst among high-volume kickers in NFL history.
Totally good with how Dan Campbell handled that.
If Campbell opted for the field goals, Badgley would be attempting kicks from 46 and 48 yards. Therefore, the Lions stayed true to their identity. Unfortunately, maintaining that philosophy backfired, and all they could muster was seven second-half points.
If they had scored more, Kindle Vildor might not have felt pressured to defend the deep pass to Brandon Aiyuk. If they had some cushion, Josh Reynolds wouldn’t have felt the pressure riding in each ball thrown to him. Instead, the diminishing lead might have caused him to drop the ball.
That’s why one game plan might not work with the next opponent. Instead of going for fourth down, a 17-point lead halfway through the third quarter might put immense pressure on San Francisco, resulting in fewer options from the playbook.
But while Campbell was involved, even the Lions players share some blame for letting the game slip away.
-Lance Fernandez