Carolina is going with Dave Canales as its head coach, and I like the idea. The goal at this point is to get Bryce Young rolling, and Canales looks like he could help in that regard.
Canales has only one year of experience as an offensive coordinator, but it was a very good one. Under his direction, Baker Mayfield was about the most surprising quarterback in the league last year, directing Tampa Bay to the NFC South title, with 28 touchdowns versus only 10 interceptions.
As a quarterbacks coach in Seattle, Canales was also connected with the most surprising quarterback from the previous season (with Geno Smith helping that team to the playoffs). And Canales previously in Seattle had some success working with Russell Wilson. Canales is only 42, but he’s been an NFL assistant for the last 13 years.
Note that Mayfield and Wilson (like Young) are undersized quarterbacks. That background should help some in designing the team’s offense.
I’m not promising Carolina will move out of last in the NFC South or put up top-20 offensive numbers, but it’s a logical enough move.
Young had a disappointing first season, averaging only 180 passing yards, and with only 11 touchdowns. But it’s too early to throw in the towel.
In the 32-team era, 12 other quarterbacks selected with top-5 picks have averaged bottom-10 numbers in their first season (per-game numbers, that is, and I’m looking only at quarterbacks who started at least half the time). Of those 12, a third moved up into the top 11 in their second season.
Too early to conclude, I think, that Young is another Zach Wilson or Joey Harrington who simply can’t play.
It’s early, but I’m expecting to grade Young somewhere around 20th or 25th among quarterbacks on my board for 2024 – a later-round gamble who might develop into a serviceable second option.
In the charts below, the final column shows where the player ranked among quarterbacks starting at least half the time.
| TOP-5 PICKS, BOTTOM-10 NUMBERS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles | 13 | 207 | .69 | 1.15 | 30 | .00 | 16.2 | 27 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz | 16 | 236 | 1.00 | .88 | 9 | .13 | 17.8 | 27 |
| 2002 | David Carr | 16 | 162 | .56 | .94 | 18 | .19 | 13.5 | 28 |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington | 12 | 187 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0 | .00 | 13.4 | 29 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez | 15 | 163 | .80 | 1.33 | 7 | .20 | 13.5 | 28 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan | 16 | 215 | 1.00 | .69 | 7 | .06 | 15.9 | 21 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky | 12 | 183 | .58 | .58 | 21 | .17 | 14.7 | 29 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | 16 | 220 | 1.13 | .94 | 4 | .06 | 16.2 | 24 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold | 13 | 220 | 1.31 | 1.15 | 11 | .08 | 17.8 | 27 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | 17 | 214 | .71 | 1.00 | 20 | .12 | 16.2 | 29 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa | 9 | 201 | 1.22 | .56 | 12 | .33 | 18.4 | 29 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson | 13 | 180 | .69 | .85 | 14 | .31 | 15.2 | 31 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young | 16 | 180 | .69 | .63 | 16 | .00 | 13.6 | 28 |
| SAME PLAYERS, SECOND SEASONS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2015 | • Blake Bortles | 16 | 277 | 2.19 | 1.13 | 19 | .13 | 25.4 | 2 |
| 2017 | • Carson Wentz | 13 | 254 | 2.54 | .54 | 23 | .00 | 25.7 | 2 |
| 2018 | • Mitchell Trubisky | 14 | 230 | 1.71 | .86 | 30 | .21 | 23.2 | 10 |
| 2022 | • Trevor Lawrence | 17 | 242 | 1.47 | .47 | 17 | .29 | 21.8 | 11 |
| 2009 | Matt Ryan | 14 | 208 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 4 | .07 | 17.5 | 18 |
| 2021 | Tua Tagovailoa | 12 | 208 | 1.33 | .83 | 11 | .17 | 17.8 | 22 |
| 2010 | Mark Sanchez | 16 | 206 | 1.06 | .81 | 7 | .19 | 16.4 | 23 |
| 2003 | David Carr | 11 | 181 | .82 | 1.09 | 11 | .18 | 14.5 | 26 |
| 2019 | Sam Darnold | 13 | 233 | 1.46 | 1.00 | 5 | .15 | 19.3 | 26 |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington | 16 | 180 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 5 | .00 | 14.0 | 27 |
| 2022 | Zach Wilson | 9 | 188 | .67 | .78 | 11 | .11 | 13.8 | 31 |
| 2011 | Sam Bradford | 10 | 216 | .60 | .60 | 3 | .00 | 13.5 | 32 |
| 2024 | Bryce Young | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan