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Dave Canales

Carolina hands reins to Bucs coordinator

Carolina is going with Dave Canales as its head coach, and I like the idea. The goal at this point is to get Bryce Young rolling, and Canales looks like he could help in that regard.

Canales has only one year of experience as an offensive coordinator, but it was a very good one. Under his direction, Baker Mayfield was about the most surprising quarterback in the league last year, directing Tampa Bay to the NFC South title, with 28 touchdowns versus only 10 interceptions.

As a quarterbacks coach in Seattle, Canales was also connected with the most surprising quarterback from the previous season (with Geno Smith helping that team to the playoffs). And Canales previously in Seattle had some success working with Russell Wilson. Canales is only 42, but he’s been an NFL assistant for the last 13 years.

Note that Mayfield and Wilson (like Young) are undersized quarterbacks. That background should help some in designing the team’s offense.

I’m not promising Carolina will move out of last in the NFC South or put up top-20 offensive numbers, but it’s a logical enough move.

Young had a disappointing first season, averaging only 180 passing yards, and with only 11 touchdowns. But it’s too early to throw in the towel.

In the 32-team era, 12 other quarterbacks selected with top-5 picks have averaged bottom-10 numbers in their first season (per-game numbers, that is, and I’m looking only at quarterbacks who started at least half the time). Of those 12, a third moved up into the top 11 in their second season.

Too early to conclude, I think, that Young is another Zach Wilson or Joey Harrington who simply can’t play.

It’s early, but I’m expecting to grade Young somewhere around 20th or 25th among quarterbacks on my board for 2024 – a later-round gamble who might develop into a serviceable second option.

In the charts below, the final column shows where the player ranked among quarterbacks starting at least half the time.

TOP-5 PICKS, BOTTOM-10 NUMBERS
YearPlayerStPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2014Blake Bortles13207.691.1530.0016.227
2016Carson Wentz162361.00.889.1317.827
2002David Carr16162.56.9418.1913.528
2002Joey Harrington121871.001.330.0013.429
2009Mark Sanchez15163.801.337.2013.528
2008Matt Ryan162151.00.697.0615.921
2017Mitchell Trubisky12183.58.5821.1714.729
2010Sam Bradford162201.13.944.0616.224
2018Sam Darnold132201.311.1511.0817.827
2021Trevor Lawrence17214.711.0020.1216.229
2020Tua Tagovailoa92011.22.5612.3318.429
2021Zach Wilson13180.69.8514.3115.231
2023Bryce Young16180.69.6316.0013.628
SAME PLAYERS, SECOND SEASONS
YearPlayerStPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2015• Blake Bortles162772.191.1319.1325.42
2017• Carson Wentz132542.54.5423.0025.72
2018• Mitchell Trubisky142301.71.8630.2123.210
2022• Trevor Lawrence172421.47.4717.2921.811
2009Matt Ryan142081.571.004.0717.518
2021Tua Tagovailoa122081.33.8311.1717.822
2010Mark Sanchez162061.06.817.1916.423
2003David Carr11181.821.0911.1814.526
2019Sam Darnold132331.461.005.1519.326
2003Joey Harrington161801.061.385.0014.027
2022Zach Wilson9188.67.7811.1113.831
2011Sam Bradford10216.60.603.0013.532
2024Bryce Young????????

—Ian Allan

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