If the media reports are accurate, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels with be top-5 picks in the draft. That’s the model for success nowadays: get a franchise quarterback. But it’s easier said than done – a lot easier.
Truth is, there’s not a lot of can’t-miss prospects like Peyton Manning out there. More commonly, they can be hard to identify. And once they’re obtained, they need to be surrounded by the right talent and properly developed.
Ultimately, the goal is to get to and win Super Bowls, and that’s hard to do – even for quarterbacks selected at the top of the draft.
In the last 30 years, 41 quarterbacks have been selected with top-5 overall picks. Those quarterbacks have gone 3-7 as starters in Super Bowl games, with all three of the wins authored by the Manning brothers. The other 39 of these quarterbacks have gone 0-6 in Super Bowls.
To clarify, some of these quarterbacks have had some other, later success. Carson Wentz might have led the Eagles to a Super Bowl had he not suffered a season-ending knee injury, Matthew Stafford won a Super Bowl with the Rams and Kerry Collins started a Super Bowl for the Giants. But having success with a second or third franchise is different than what was hoped for when making that original draft pick.
In the chart below, the figures indicate only the player’s work as a starter with his original team (except with Eli Manning; with him getting traded before ever actually being a member of the Chargers, I’m treating him as a career-long Giant).
I’ve got the last 41 top-5 quarterbacks with a total of only three Super Bowls for their original teams. And I’ve got them at 10-16 as a starters in conference championship games (4-1 for the Mannings, and 6-15 for the other 39 guys).
While hopes are high for the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels, the historical numbers suggest it’s actually more likely than none of them will ever play in a Super Bowl.
| QUARTERBACKS PICKED IN THE TOP 5 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | SB | CC |
| 1994 | 3 | Heath Shuler, Was. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 1995 | 3 | Steve McNair, Hou. | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| 1995 | 5 | Kerry Collins, Car. | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| 1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf, S.D. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch, Clev. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| 1999 | 3 | Akili Smith, Cin. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, S.D. | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers, NYG | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Ten. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| 2020 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 2 | Zach Wilson, N.Y. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1 | Bryce Young, Car. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 4 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 0-0 | 0-0 |
—Ian Allan