There was a story last week that John Harbaugh thinks that Rashod Bateman has a great future. "He'll be starting and playing a lot of snaps for us next year," he told an ESPN reporter. Coaches say optimistic things like this all the time. Is this actually a case where we should believe him?
I'm going to say no. Anything is possible, but when next season rolls around, I believe I'll have a whole bunch of wide receiver sleepers I like a lot more than Bateman.
But before writing him off, I thought I'd look at the history of first-round picks who have done as little as Bateman has his first three seasons. Interestingly enough, the search turned up another first-round pick from the same draft who could have played in the Super Bowl a couple of days ago (but was a healthy scratch), Kadarius Toney.
Bateman has caught 93 passes his first three seasons in the league, so I thought I'd compare him to other first-round picks this century who have also caught fewer than 100 balls their first three years in the league. I came up with 29 such players. How did those guys fare in Year 4?
The results are about as grim as you might expect. The names are all pretty familiar. So is the lack of success.
Table shows total receptions by each first-round wideout over their first three seasons, and then their stats (catches, yards, touchdowns) and PPR ranking in their fourth seasons, which Bateman and Toney will be entering in 2024. Not necessarily with the team they're currently on.
Eight of the previous 27 were out of the league entirely by their fourth season. (Extenuating circumstances for Henry Ruggs.) The highest finish in year 4 was by Robert Meachem, 50th among wide receivers while working with Drew Brees in New Orleans. Three others cracked the top 60, while Cordarrelle Patterson has gone on to have a nice career as a return man and running back.
None of the others did much; not in year 4, and not in the years to follow.
| 1ST-RD WRS, UNDER 100 CATCHES YEARS 1-3 (YEAR 4?) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | 4th | Player | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 57 | 2010 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 44 | 638 | 5 | 50 |
| 86 | 2004 | David Terrell, Cin. | 42 | 699 | 1 | 55 |
| 99 | 2012 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, N.E. | 41 | 606 | 5 | 56 |
| 82 | 2007 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 53 | 532 | 4 | 57 |
| 80 | 2016 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Oak. | 52 | 453 | 3 | 66 |
| 68 | 2004 | Freddie Mitchell, Min. | 22 | 377 | 2 | 87 |
| 63 | 2018 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 32 | 290 | 3 | 88 |
| 43 | 2018 | Breshad Perriman, Min. | 16 | 340 | 2 | 103 |
| 30 | 2010 | Craig Davis, Phil. | 21 | 259 | 1 | 106 |
| 56 | 2019 | Laquon Treadwell, Jac. | 9 | 184 | 1 | 135 |
| 57 | 2022 | N'Keal Harry, Chi. | 7 | 116 | 1 | 142 |
| 79 | 2008 | Troy Williamson, Min. | 5 | 30 | 1 | 143 |
| 72 | 2023 | Jalen Reagor, Min. | 7 | 138 | 1 | 144 |
| 94 | 2010 | Anthony Gonzalez, Cle. | 5 | 67 | 0 | 155 |
| 21 | 2018 | Kevin White, N.O. | 4 | 92 | 0 | 164 |
| 49 | 2020 | John Ross, Atl. | 2 | 17 | 0 | 203 |
| 81 | 2019 | Josh Doctson, LAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
| 82 | 2024 | Kadarius Toney, K.C. | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| 93 | 2024 | Rashod Bateman, Bal. | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| 17 | 2015 | A.J. Jenkins | Out of league | |||
| 36 | 2006 | Charles Rogers | Out of league | |||
| 61 | 2019 | Corey Coleman | Out of league | |||
| 50 | 2023 | Henry Ruggs | Out of league | |||
| 44 | 2014 | Jon Baldwin | Out of league | |||
| 14 | 2003 | R. Jay Soward | Out of league | |||
| 7 | 2007 | Rashaun Woods | Out of league | |||
| 48 | 2003 | Sylvester Morris | Out of league | |||
With Toney, the talent has shown up at times, but not with any consistency (and there are both injury and apparently attitude/personality issues). With Bateman, there have also been injuries, and maybe the offense itself has been part of the problem.
But I doubt the Ravens are actually counting on Bateman as their No. 2 wide receiver next season. That's an area they'll probably be looking to upgrade.
--Andy Richardson