If the mock drafts are to be believed, Bo Nix and Michael Penix won’t be among the first four quarterbacks drafted in April. But I notice that both of those Pac-12 quarterbacks in college were unusually good at getting rid of the ball.
Sack totals and sack rates are something I look at. They speak to decision making and playing style – I like guys who have shown they can quickly process and get the ball out of their hands. Justin Fields, as a recent example, was plagued by sacks at Ohio State, and that’s carried over to the pros (that’s been his No. 1 issue). Daniel Jones similarly had problems with sacks at Duke, and he’s been unable to shake those internal clock issues in the pros.
With Nix and Penix, they’ve been better at getting the ball out of their hands than any of the quarterbacks selected with top-15 picks in the last 10 years. Two years in a row, Nix has taken only 5 sacks all year. Penix took only 5 sacks in 2022, and just 11 in the just-completed season. They’ve both been sacked on fewer than 2 percent of their pass plays – most quarterbacks have been sacked over twice as often.
The three quarterbacks expected to be drafted right at the top of the draft, meanwhile, have all had issues with tending to take too many sacks. Caleb Williams last year wasn’t all that different than Fields in sack frequency, while Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels both also took plenty.
This is just one piece of the puzzle, of course. And college stats don’t always translate. Josh Allen took a ton of sacks at Wyoming but was the least-sacked quarterback in the league last year, while Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz didn’t take many in college and have had some problems with taking too many. But it looks to me like Nix and Penix grade out well in the pocket awareness category.
In the chart below, you’re seeing the final college seasons for quarterbacks selected with top-15 picks. For Nix, his 2022 numbers are similar. For Penix, he was sacked on less than 1 percent of his pass plays in 2022, which would be the best of anybody on the lis.
| SACK PERCENTAGES; TOP QUARTERBACK PROSPECTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Players | No | Att | Pct |
| 2023 | ? | Bo Nix | 5 | 470 | 1.1% |
| 2023 | ? | Michael Penix | 11 | 555 | 1.9% |
| 2016 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | 17 | 579 | 2.9% |
| 2022 | 2 | C.J. Stroud | 12 | 389 | 3.0% |
| 2020 | 15 | Mac Jones | 13 | 402 | 3.1% |
| 2014 | 1 | Jameis Winston | 17 | 467 | 3.5% |
| 2018 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins | 20 | 533 | 3.6% |
| 2015 | 2 | Carson Wentz | 8 | 208 | 3.7% |
| 2019 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 252 | 3.8% |
| 2022 | 4 | Anthony Richardson | 14 | 327 | 4.1% |
| 2016 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | 20 | 446 | 4.3% |
| 2020 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | 15 | 334 | 4.3% |
| 2016 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 27 | 591 | 4.4% |
| 2020 | 2 | Zach Wilson | 11 | 236 | 4.5% |
| 2022 | 1 | Bryce Young | 18 | 380 | 4.5% |
| 2018 | 1 | Kyler Murray | 18 | 377 | 4.6% |
| 2015 | 1 | Jared Goff | 26 | 529 | 4.7% |
| 2019 | 6 | Justin Herbert | 24 | 428 | 5.3% |
| 2023 | ? | • J.J. McCarthy | 19 | 332 | 5.4% |
| 2017 | 10 | Josh Rosen | 26 | 451 | 5.5% |
| 2017 | 3 | Sam Darnold | 29 | 480 | 5.7% |
| 2017 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | 26 | 404 | 6.0% |
| 2019 | 1 | Joe Burrow | 34 | 527 | 6.1% |
| 2023 | ? | • Jayden Daniels | 22 | 327 | 6.3% |
| 2023 | ? | • Drake Maye | 29 | 425 | 6.4% |
| 2014 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | 31 | 445 | 6.5% |
| 2018 | 6 | Daniel Jones | 28 | 392 | 6.7% |
| 2017 | 7 | Josh Allen | 22 | 270 | 7.5% |
| 2023 | ? | • Caleb Williams | 33 | 388 | 7.8% |
| 2020 | 11 | Justin Fields | 21 | 225 | 8.5% |
| 2020 | 2 | Trey Lance | 3 | 30 | 9.1% |
—Ian Allan