Things are up in the air in Denver, with the team in the market for a new starting quarterback and probably obtaining at least one notable wide receiver. But however those changes shake out, I will be optimistic about the team’s running backs.
The Broncos ranked 18th in rushing last year, which is nothing special. I’m not promising they’ll be moving up into the top dozen in rushing yards or touchdowns. But they sure use their running backs a lot in the passing game; they really helps out in PPR formats.
Denver completed 131 passes to running backs last year, the most of any team. That was with a variety of backs chipping in – Javonte Williams (pictured), Samaje Perine and rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. And that’s not an outlier number; that’s just how Sean Payton runs his offense.
Since Payton became a head coach in 2006, 33 offenses have completed at least 120 passes to running backs. Payton’s fingerprints are on a third of those offenses. He likes challenging linebackers with pass catchers coming out of the backfield.
| TEAMS COMPLETING 120 PASSES TO RUNNING BACKS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2013 | • New Orleans | 171 | 1244 | 7.3 | 6 |
| 2011 | • New Orleans | 158 | 1231 | 7.8 | 10 |
| 2006 | • New Orleans | 158 | 1250 | 7.9 | 5 |
| 2019 | LA Chargers | 148 | 1357 | 9.2 | 10 |
| 2017 | • New Orleans | 143 | 1254 | 8.8 | 6 |
| 2007 | • New Orleans | 143 | 872 | 6.1 | 3 |
| 2012 | • New Orleans | 141 | 1179 | 8.4 | 10 |
| 2022 | LA Chargers | 140 | 911 | 6.5 | 7 |
| 2015 | Detroit | 135 | 1216 | 9.0 | 5 |
| 2015 | San Diego | 134 | 1147 | 8.6 | 6 |
| 2014 | • New Orleans | 132 | 939 | 7.1 | 4 |
| 2023 | Denver | 131 | 851 | 6.5 | 4 |
| 2020 | LA Chargers | 129 | 890 | 6.9 | 4 |
| 2015 | Philadelphia | 128 | 878 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 2022 | Tampa Bay | 128 | 831 | 6.5 | 5 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 128 | 1026 | 8.0 | 3 |
| 2013 | Atlanta | 127 | 831 | 6.5 | 6 |
| 2015 | Baltimore | 127 | 879 | 6.9 | 6 |
| 2016 | • New Orleans | 127 | 884 | 7.0 | 10 |
| 2015 | • New Orleans | 127 | 1064 | 8.4 | 3 |
| 2019 | Carolina | 124 | 1068 | 8.6 | 4 |
| 2019 | • New Orleans | 124 | 824 | 6.6 | 2 |
| 2006 | St. Louis | 124 | 1094 | 8.8 | 4 |
| 2012 | San Diego | 123 | 837 | 6.8 | 1 |
| 2011 | San Diego | 123 | 977 | 7.9 | 3 |
| 2006 | Philadelphia | 122 | 1063 | 8.7 | 6 |
| 2019 | New England | 121 | 1134 | 9.4 | 6 |
| 2018 | New England | 121 | 999 | 8.3 | 8 |
| 2017 | New England | 120 | 919 | 7.7 | 9 |
| 2008 | • New Orleans | 120 | 936 | 7.8 | 9 |
| 2012 | Oakland | 120 | 1022 | 8.5 | 3 |
| 2020 | Washington | 120 | 848 | 7.1 | 2 |
I’m not at this point saying Denver will have a top-10 back. For most of Payton’s two decades in the league, he’s tended to use multiple backs. That makes it seem unlikely that Williams will make the move up to being a 1,300-yard rusher. (And let’s see how the playing time shake out; it could be a committee of Williams-Perine-McLaughlin, but somebody else could wind up in the mix.)
But with receiving production roughly counting double in PPR formats, these Denver backs should tend to be undervalued in many leagues. If form holds, they’ll catch about 55 more passes for 400 more yards than the running backs on most teams, and that chalks out to about 95 points worth of value in PPR formats.
—Ian Allan