The NFL is talking about revising the kick return. Again. It's a play that many want to do away with entirely, but the league isn't ready to go there. So they'll keep coming up with half-measures, until there's nothing left to take away.
The problem with the play is the injury risk. The league has data showing that injury rates, specifically concussions, are higher on kick returns than other plays. They've made multiple changes to the play this century, and another one is probably coming.
Back in 2011, they moved kickoffs from the 30-yard-line to the 35-yard-line. The feeling was with that 5-yard difference, there'd be a lot more of those plays resulting in touchbacks. And that seemed to work: in the five-year period from 2006-2010, teams averaged 65 kick returns per season. In the five years from 2011-2015, that number dropped to teams averaged 40 kick returns; a decline of 38 percent.
But in 2015, according to the league, there were enough injuries on the play that they recommended another change for 2016. This time, touchbacks would move from the 20-yard-line to the 25. Basically it was an incentive to teams to keep returners in the end zone. Over the next five years, teams averaged 31 kick returns per season, a decline of nearly 25 percent -- about half as many on average as a decade earlier.
The new proposal involves adopting the XFL kickoff rules. Since almost nobody watches the XFL, I'll explain: Kickers line up at their 30-yard line. The other 10 players of the kickoff team line up at the opponents' 35-yard line -- 5 yards away from the returning team. The kicker and the returner are the only players who can move until the ball is fielded. The goal is to reduce the high-speed collisions between players, which indeed won't happen with 20 of the 22 players starting just 5 yards away from each other.
Unless I'm missing something, this rule change, if it happens, would put an end to the onside kick as we know it. That's been discussed in recent years anyway, with suggestions including the team who would have kicked it getting a chance to run a 4th-and-15 play from their own 25-yard-line, or somesuch. Personally, I think I'd miss the onside kick. Perhaps teams would still be allowed to line up as in the past if attempting an onside kick. We'll see.
In any case, the rule changes have resulted in the relative disappearance of kick return touchdowns, to the point where they're barely worth factoring into team defense/special teams fantasy rankings. In 2010, the last year before the first of these rule changes, there were 23 such scores. Last year, there were only 4, and only 2 were by guys who would have been considered reasonable candidates for such a touchdown, Denver's Marvin Mims (pictured) and New England's Jalen Reagor (he had a pair of such scores in college). The other two were unlikely plays by 255-pound Houston fullback Andrew Beck and running back Dameon Pierce. I'm comfortable saying those guys could be in the league 10 more years without a single notable kick return between them.
Table shows kickoff return touchdowns by team since that 2010 season. The Vikings, with 11, are the only team to average close to a touchdown per season (and they've only got 3 in the last six years). In those 14 years, only nine teams have totaled more than 4 kick return touchdowns. If this rule change passes, there probably won't be any more, at all. Then you really won't have to think about it when considering fantasy defenses. (Tampa Bay and Cleveland have each gone a dozen years without such a score.)
| KICKOFF RETURN TOUCHDOWNS, 2010-2023 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | Total |
| Minnesota | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Baltimore | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Seattle | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| New England | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| NY Jets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Buffalo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Kansas City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Washington | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Tennessee | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Denver | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Miami | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Las Vegas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Chicago | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Indianapolis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Philadelphia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Houston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Detroit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| LA Chargers | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Arizona | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Carolina | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Green Bay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jacksonville | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cincinnati | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| San Francisco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dallas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NY Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Atlanta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| New Orleans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LA Rams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cleveland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFL | 23 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 117 |
For those wondering (anyone?), punt return touchdowns are still happening on occasion. There were 8 such scores last year, in line with averages over the previous 10 years (8.6). Some decline from the past (those numbers used to be in the teens earlier in the century), but that is more likely due to coverage units and/or punters getting better; I'm not aware of any rule changes to negatively impact punt returns. But regardless, not enough of them in a typical season to dramatically influence fantasy defense rankings.
More than on kickoff returns, though.
--Andy Richardson