The NFC North seems to be on the upswing. It’s the only division with multiple teams that won playoff games last year (Lions, Packers). Minnesota’s offense will get right in a hurry if Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson are back and healthy. And the Bears look like and up-and-coming team that should be more improved than all of them.
Chicago was a disaster in September last year, losing its first four, but it came around, winning 7 of its final 13. The defense in particularly was vastly improved, particularly after trading for Montez Sweat.
Now the Bears are sitting with a pair of top-10 picks, including No. 1 overall. That puts them in position to change the trajectory of the franchise.
They have to successfully execute the picks, of course. But assuming they select the right players and develop them properly, a playoff spot looks a possibility.
Consider it this way. NFL teams like to use draft value charts to assist in decision making with trades. If we take those player value approximations and apply them to the draft positions teams currently hold, the Bears are holding the 6th-best draft hand of the 32-team era. (Two other teams this year are holding unusually promising collections of picks – Washington and Arizona.) And Chicago will move up another spot or two if it moves Justin Fields for a second- or third-round pick.
Historically, such draft hauls tend to translate into better on-field performance. Below, see the projected best draft classes since 2002, using the value chart developed by the Cowboys when Jimmy Johnson was there. (Different teams use different value charts, but this one will work for our purposes.), along with the before-and-after win-loss records.
Note that of the 50 draft classes listed (not including the 3 upcoming teams), 40 of those teams won more games. Twenty four of those teams won at least 4 more games, and 13 from at least six more games. Only 10 of the 50 teams (tagged with black dots) didn’t win more games (either staying the same or even declining).
The list below includes two notable drafting teams from last year. The Texans (who entered the draft with a Chicago-type haul) moved up from 3-13-1 to win their division, while the Panthers were the biggest disaster among all teams listed (falling from a respectable 7-10 down to 2-15).
I like the look of where Chicago is headed.
| TEAMS WITH THE MOST DRAFT CAPITAL | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Draft pts | Before | After | Extra wins |
| 2018 | Browns | 6,334 | 0-16 | 7-8-1 | 7.5 |
| 2021 | Jaguars | 5,189 | 1-15 | 3-14 | 2 |
| 2017 | • Browns | 5,095 | 1-15 | 0-16 | -1 |
| 2023 | Texans | 5,008 | 3-13-1 | 10-7 | 6.5 |
| 2009 | Lions | 4,900 | 0-16 | 2-14 | 2 |
| 2024 | Chicago | 4,721 | 7-10 | ? | ? |
| 2002 | Texans | 4,623 | 0-0 | 4-12 | 4 |
| 2022 | • Texans | 4,595 | 4-13 | 3-13-1 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | Jets | 4,568 | 4-13 | 7-10 | 3 |
| 2014 | • Rams | 4,552 | 7-9 | 6-10 | -1 |
| 2020 | Dolphins | 4,452 | 5-11 | 10-6 | 5 |
| 2021 | Jets | 4,447 | 2-14 | 4-13 | 2 |
| 2022 | Lions | 4,390 | 3-13-1 | 9-8 | 5.5 |
| 2022 | Giants | 4,348 | 4-13 | 9-7-1 | 5.5 |
| 2019 | Cardinals | 4,295 | 3-13 | 5-10-1 | 2.5 |
| 2008 | Dolphins | 4,294 | 1-15 | 11-5 | 10 |
| 2004 | Chargers | 4,289 | 4-12 | 12-4 | 8 |
| 2007 | Raiders | 4,282 | 2-14 | 4-12 | 2 |
| 2006 | Texans | 4,236 | 2-14 | 6-10 | 4 |
| 2022 | Jaguars | 4,226 | 3-14 | 9-8 | 6 |
| 2008 | Falcons | 4,151 | 4-12 | 11-5 | 7 |
| 2024 | Washington | 4,136 | 4-13 | ? | ? |
| 2014 | Texans | 4,105 | 2-14 | 9-7 | 7 |
| 2008 | • Chiefs | 4,081 | 4-12 | 2-14 | -2 |
| 2003 | Bengals | 4,075 | 2-14 | 8-8 | 6 |
| 2010 | Rams | 4,063 | 1-15 | 7-9 | 6 |
| 2005 | 49ers | 4,042 | 2-14 | 4-12 | 2 |
| 2012 | Colts | 4,042 | 2-14 | 11-5 | 9 |
| 2020 | Bengals | 3,978 | 2-14 | 4-11-1 | 2.5 |
| 2015 | Buccaneers | 3,943 | 2-14 | 6-10 | 4 |
| 2019 | Raiders | 3,915 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 3 |
| 2011 | Broncos | 3,889 | 4-12 | 8-8 | 4 |
| 2012 | Browns | 3,863 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 1 |
| 2007 | Lions | 3,854 | 3-13 | 7-9 | 4 |
| 2024 | Arizona | 3,831 | 4-13 | ? | ? |
| 2018 | Giants | 3,780 | 3-13 | 5-11 | 2 |
| 2023 | • Panthers | 3,778 | 7-10 | 2-15 | -5 |
| 2023 | • Seahawks | 3,754 | 9-8 | 9-8 | 0 |
| 2021 | • Dolphins | 3,707 | 10-6 | 9-8 | -1 |
| 2010 | Buccaneers | 3,642 | 3-13 | 10-6 | 7 |
| 2003 | Lions | 3,623 | 3-13 | 5-11 | 2 |
| 2013 | Jaguars | 3,620 | 2-14 | 4-12 | 2 |
| 2008 | • Rams | 3,614 | 3-13 | 2-14 | -1 |
| 2015 | Titans | 3,602 | 2-14 | 3-13 | 1 |
| 2002 | Panthers | 3,583 | 1-15 | 7-9 | 6 |
| 2013 | Chiefs | 3,572 | 2-14 | 11-5 | 9 |
| 2011 | Panthers | 3,558 | 2-14 | 6-10 | 4 |
| 2019 | 49ers | 3,547 | 4-12 | 13-3 | 9 |
| 2009 | • Rams | 3,541 | 2-14 | 1-15 | -1 |
| 2010 | Lions | 3,530 | 2-14 | 6-10 | 4 |
| 2023 | Detroit | 3,513 | 9-8 | 12-5 | 3 |
| 2004 | Raiders | 3,491 | 4-12 | 5-11 | 1 |
| 2009 | • Broncos | 3,483 | 8-8 | 8-8 | 0 |
—Ian Allan