The Vikings lost Kirk Cousins. Now what? They’ve still got Kevin O’Connell, and he appears to be one of the better coaches at drawing up pass plays. And they’ve still got Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
Nick Mullens is an afterthought quarterback in every sense of the word, and he passed for over 1,000 yards (with 6 TDs) in three of his late-season starts last year. Even without Cousins, I would think the Vikings might be finishing with above-average passing numbers.
They will, however, need to find somebody to put behind center. They’re making their first move on that front by signing Sam Darnold to a one-year deal that could be worth up to $10 million. That contract suggests they think Darnold is an above-average backup.
Darnold fizzled out with the Jets and was a disappointment with the Panthers. He spent last year with the 49ers, who share some offensive DNA with the Vikings. I just re-watched all of Darnold’s preseason passes; I saw a couple of really good passes down the right sideline but nothing that makes me think he’s going to dramatically revive his career.
I take the Darnold signing as evidence that the Vikings have no interest in Justin Fields. In O’Connell’s offense, I think they’re looking for a processor and a decision-maker rather than a dual-threat athlete who’ll run around. I don’t think Fields is their kind of quarterback.
Instead, I would think they’ll be looking to pair Darnold with a rookie they’ll be taking in the first round. Whether that’s Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix or Michael Penix, I have no idea. They’re holding the 11th pick in the first round, with the ability to move up or down if necessary.
Whichever quarterback winds up running the Minnesota offense, I’m interested. Below see a mashup of the passing stats from last year, showing the Vikings (with and without Cousins) relative to the other 31 teams.
The numbers have been adjusted to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison. That is, Cousins played eight games. Had he continued on at that statistical pace for the full year, he would have been a good contender to lead the league in touchdown passes. (The numbers suggest he would have thrown about 38 touchdowns, with the Vikings finishing with the best passing numbers in the league.)
The Vikings used three other quarterbacks last year – Mullens, Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall. Minnesota averaged 46 fewer passing yards when those guys were starting. If we take the stats from those nine games and project them over a full 17-game slate, the Vikings would have finished with about 23 TD passes, finishing in the middle of the pack for fantasy purposes (using 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 4 for TD passes).
Note that the errors went way up with other quarterbacks on the field, with the Vikings on pace to finish with a league-high 26 interceptions and 55 sacks.
But O’Connell has some ability to cook up a passing game, and they’ll be throwing plenty. Let’s see who that rookie quarterback is who lands in Minnesota.
| VIKINGS WITH AND WITHOUT KIRK COUSINS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yds/G | TD | Int | Sack | Pts/G |
| Min. (Cousins) | 69.5% | 281 | 38.3 | 10.6 | 38.3 | 23.0 |
| Dallas | 69.7% | 259 | 36 | 10 | 40 | 21.4 |
| San Francisco | 68.4% | 258 | 33 | 12 | 34 | 20.7 |
| Miami | 69.4% | 266 | 30 | 15 | 31 | 20.3 |
| Detroit | 67.3% | 259 | 30 | 12 | 31 | 20.0 |
| Minnesota | 67.2% | 256 | 30 | 19 | 47 | 19.9 |
| Green Bay | 64.4% | 233 | 32 | 11 | 30 | 19.2 |
| Buffalo | 66.5% | 244 | 29 | 18 | 24 | 19.0 |
| Kansas City | 66.3% | 246 | 28 | 17 | 28 | 18.9 |
| Houston | 62.8% | 245 | 27 | 8 | 47 | 18.6 |
| New Orleans | 67.0% | 235 | 28 | 11 | 35 | 18.3 |
| LA Rams | 61.9% | 239 | 26 | 13 | 34 | 18.1 |
| Cincinnati | 68.3% | 229 | 27 | 14 | 50 | 17.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 64.1% | 224 | 28 | 10 | 40 | 17.8 |
| Jacksonville | 66.5% | 243 | 22 | 14 | 41 | 17.3 |
| LA Chargers | 64.7% | 233 | 24 | 8 | 43 | 17.3 |
| Min. (other QBs) | 64.9% | 235 | 22.7 | 26.4 | 54.8 | 17.1 |
| Baltimore | 66.4% | 214 | 27 | 7 | 41 | 17.0 |
| Philadelphia | 65.5% | 226 | 24 | 16 | 39 | 16.9 |
| Seattle | 64.5% | 230 | 23 | 12 | 38 | 16.9 |
| Washington | 64.0% | 219 | 24 | 21 | 65 | 16.6 |
| Cleveland | 56.9% | 217 | 24 | 23 | 45 | 16.5 |
| Denver | 65.7% | 192 | 28 | 9 | 52 | 16.2 |
| Indianapolis | 61.8% | 216 | 18 | 10 | 41 | 15.0 |
| Las Vegas | 62.5% | 199 | 20 | 18 | 40 | 14.6 |
| Atlanta | 61.7% | 207 | 17 | 17 | 40 | 14.4 |
| Chicago | 62.6% | 182 | 19 | 15 | 50 | 13.6 |
| Arizona | 64.0% | 185 | 18 | 12 | 42 | 13.5 |
| New England | 63.0% | 181 | 16 | 21 | 48 | 12.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 63.8% | 186 | 13 | 9 | 36 | 12.4 |
| Tennessee | 61.5% | 180 | 14 | 11 | 64 | 12.3 |
| NY Giants | 65.3% | 170 | 15 | 12 | 85 | 12.0 |
| NY Jets | 59.2% | 172 | 11 | 15 | 64 | 11.2 |
| Carolina | 59.7% | 161 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 11.1 |
—Ian Allan