There has been a somewhat surprising lack of commitment to Geno Smith from the post-Pete Carroll Seahawks. Smith won the Comeback Player of the Year a year ago and has gone to the Pro Bowl the last two seasons, but Seattle is making it sound like he'll have competition this summer.
Last month, GM John Schneider said Smith was the starter "until he's not." Then new coach Mike MacDonald, speaking in a radio appearance, said "We're always trying to figure out what's best for the team...quarterback position included."
Seattle doesn't have another quarterback under contract for 2024 (Drew Lock is a free agent), so it's not like the position is flush with other possibilities. The team will presumably either add someone via free agency or the draft; what the quotes make it clear is that Smith isn't being handed the job. Most likely he'll be the starter, but perhaps they've got their eye on someone else.
I took a look at the numbers to see if perhaps Smith showed signs of decline over the course of last year. I knew he wasn't as good in 2023 as in 2022 -- most notably, he threw 10 fewer touchdowns -- but overall production wasn't that much different. He averaged just 10 fewer passing yards per game and the team record was similar (9-8 under him in '22, 8-7 last year).
Moreover, Smith was actually better the second half of last season than the first half. Fantasy-wise, a lot better.
Table shows numbers for all quarterbacks who started at least five games in both the first and second half of the season last year. There were 22 such players; first five columns show their first half numbers, second five columns their second half numbers. Table is sorted by improvement/decline in terms of fantasy points. Smith averaged 35 more passing yards per game with 3 more total touchdowns; 31 percent more fantasy points per game, the biggest increase in the league. I don't expect NFL teams to consider that when choosing starters, but I'm not sure what the argument against Smith continuing as the starter would be. It doesn't seem like he was the problem in Seattle.
| QBS, 1ST HALF VS. 2ND HALF, 2023 (MINIMUM 5 STARTS EACH HALF) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pa/G | TD | Run | TD | FPG | Pa/G | TD | Run | TD | FPG | Imp? |
| Geno Smith, Sea. | 225 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 16.7 | 260 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 21.9 | 31% |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 259 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 18.0 | 271 | 16 | -3 | 0 | 22.6 | 25% |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 251 | 13 | 118 | 1 | 21.3 | 278 | 23 | 124 | 1 | 26.6 | 25% |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 242 | 9 | 216 | 0 | 19.3 | 260 | 12 | 123 | 4 | 23.8 | 23% |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | 215 | 12 | 171 | 2 | 20.9 | 271 | 20 | 76 | 2 | 24.6 | 18% |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 217 | 9 | 440 | 5 | 23.1 | 246 | 15 | 381 | 0 | 26.6 | 15% |
| Derek Carr, N.O. | 236 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 16.7 | 220 | 15 | 17 | 0 | 18.9 | 13% |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 254 | 12 | 107 | 2 | 21.5 | 281 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 24.0 | 11% |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 233 | 12 | 122 | 0 | 19.7 | 242 | 16 | 41 | 1 | 20.3 | 3% |
| Russell Wilson, Den. | 202 | 16 | 201 | 0 | 20.6 | 208 | 10 | 140 | 3 | 21.3 | 3% |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 272 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 21.3 | 267 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 21.9 | 3% |
| Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 213 | 6 | 139 | 3 | 17.9 | 216 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 18.1 | 1% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 269 | 18 | 233 | 6 | 28.5 | 235 | 11 | 291 | 9 | 27.9 | -2% |
| Justin Fields, Chi. | 200 | 11 | 237 | 1 | 22.3 | 194 | 5 | 420 | 3 | 21.2 | -5% |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 284 | 14 | 78 | 1 | 23.2 | 263 | 9 | 89 | 2 | 21.3 | -8% |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 253 | 13 | 98 | 3 | 22.9 | 222 | 7 | 130 | 0 | 19.3 | -16% |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 271 | 17 | 258 | 0 | 24.0 | 249 | 10 | 131 | 0 | 20.0 | -17% |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 261 | 15 | 316 | 7 | 27.9 | 189 | 8 | 289 | 8 | 23.1 | -17% |
| Gardner Minshew, Ind. | 240 | 7 | 41 | 2 | 20.8 | 222 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 16.6 | -21% |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 290 | 19 | 33 | 0 | 23.3 | 252 | 10 | 41 | 0 | 18.1 | -22% |
| Sam Howell, Was. | 275 | 14 | 157 | 1 | 22.6 | 184 | 7 | 106 | 4 | 17.3 | -23% |
| Bryce Young, Car. | 196 | 8 | 117 | 0 | 16.4 | 167 | 3 | 136 | 0 | 11.4 | -30% |
At the other end of the spectrum, some of the big decliners aren't surprising. Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa; anyone watching the games knows those guys were bigger difference-makers (positively) the first half of the season than the second. Sam Howell and Bryce Young also slipped the second half (Young was also bad in the first, but his season only got worse as it went along).
I don't know exactly what Seattle is thinking; maybe it's just coach speak, a new regime taking a fresh look at every player (perhaps DK Metcalf is also competing for his job? Nah probably not). But if Seattle shows some interest in quarterbacks in free agency or the draft, I guess we shouldn't be surprised. Even if Geno seems to have earned at least another year in the job.
--Andy Richardson