I've seen some debate regarding the Packers' signing of Josh Jacobs. Some think they should have just stuck with Aaron Jones, who finished strong (and was a fan-favorite). Others think Jacobs, who averaged just 3.5 yards per carry last year, is washed-up from all the touches over the years, even at just 26 years old.
I'm in the camp that will probably be drafting Jacobs, in part out of appreciation for past success (most notably his awesome 2022 season), and in part because I think he'll be very good in the Packers offense. Lots of running backs have been very good for Green Bay, for a lot of years now.
The Packers are best known for their decades of success with quarterbacks, from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to now, it seems, Jordan Love. And all that is true. But hand-in-hand with that, they've sure had a lot of great fantasy running backs.
Since 2000, the Packers have had a running back finish in the top 12 at their position 12 times (PPR scoring). That includes Jones doing it four times in the last five seasons. But Ahman Green also did it five times, and Eddie Lacy -- Eddie Lacy! -- did it twice.
The Packers have also put four other running backs in the top 25, including AJ Dillon two years ago. While a lot of teams have gone to committee backfields in the past decade, the Packers have generally seen one back do most of the damage. In 2024, that will be Jacobs.
| TOP-25 PACKERS BACKS, 2000-PRESENT | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2022 | Aaron Jones | 1121 | 59 | 395 | 7 | 7 |
| 2021 | Aaron Jones | 799 | 52 | 391 | 10 | 11 |
| 2021 | AJ Dillon | 803 | 34 | 313 | 7 | 23 |
| 2020 | Aaron Jones | 1104 | 47 | 355 | 11 | 5 |
| 2019 | Aaron Jones | 1084 | 49 | 474 | 19 | 2 |
| 2018 | Aaron Jones | 728 | 26 | 206 | 9 | 24 |
| 2015 | James Starks | 601 | 43 | 392 | 5 | 21 |
| 2014 | Eddie Lacy | 1139 | 42 | 427 | 13 | 6 |
| 2013 | Eddie Lacy | 1178 | 35 | 257 | 11 | 8 |
| 2010 | Brandon Jackson | 703 | 43 | 342 | 4 | 24 |
| 2009 | Ryan Grant | 1253 | 25 | 197 | 11 | 11 |
| 2007 | Ryan Grant | 956 | 30 | 145 | 8 | 17 |
| 2006 | Ahman Green | 1059 | 46 | 373 | 6 | 15 |
| 2004 | Ahman Green | 1163 | 40 | 275 | 8 | 11 |
| 2003 | Ahman Green | 1883 | 50 | 367 | 20 | 3 |
| 2002 | Ahman Green | 1240 | 57 | 393 | 9 | 11 |
| 2001 | Ahman Green | 1387 | 62 | 594 | 11 | 3 |
| 2000 | Ahman Green | 1175 | 73 | 559 | 13 | 4 |
Green Bay re-signed AJ Dillon, after he apparently drew no interest on the free agent market. When Jacobs needs a breather, it will be Dillon spelling him (those who like to protect their starters with clear backups should be able to do so in Green Bay with Dillon). But Jacobs looks pretty good to me as an early choice in fantasy drafts.
Considering what Jones did over the last 5-6 years, it's reasonable to have some interest in him in Minnesota. You know he'll get up for his two games against the Packers, and he's certainly done well in divisional games against the Lions and Bears.
But Jones is 29 years old; he'll turn 30 in December. Jacobs just turned 26 last month. Packers fans lamenting Green Bay's pivot need look no further than that age difference. I'll have some interest in Jones in drafts, as well, but give me the younger guy more often than not. Jones seems more likely to be selected too early, Jacobs too late.
--Andy Richardson
5 Reader Comments:
Ian Allan
Richard Loppnow
Andy Richardson
But if they cut Jacobs after one year, they'll have paid him nearly $15 million ($12.5 signing bonus, $1.2M base salary, and then per game and workout bonuses bringing the total up to $14.8M). They're paying Jacobs more than they would have paid Jones, not less. That Athletic story indicates Jones would have counted $17M against the cap, so I guess it depends how you look at it -- Jones would have counted more against the cap, but he would have cost the team less money ($12M vs $14.8M).
If they cut Jacobs after one year, they won't have to pay him any more than that $14.8M, but it's not exactly at no cost -- he'll count $9.4M against the 2025 cap.
Richard Loppnow
So Jacobs' cap cost this year is $5.4 mill then? Huge saving this year, then a smaller cost whenever the Pack decides Jacobs is no longer worth an additional, what is it, $11 mill per year?
Andy Richardson
With Jacobs, the guaranteed money in his deal is spread out over four years. So if they cut him after one year, the remaining guarantees ($9M) count right away. After two years it would be $6M, etc.
Story I saw after posting last night was that Green Bay's final offer to Jones was $4M guaranteed and $2M in incentives (dunno if they were easily reachable). But $4M guaranteed versus $7M from the Vikings indicates he made the right financial choice, at least.