In Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons have one of the best one-two punches at tailback in the league. But I’m thinking the running game there will be dramatically scaled back.
The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal worth $180 million. They’re not spending that kind of money to use him in a game manager role. He’ll be slinging it.
And they’re bringing over Zac Robinson from the Rams to run the offense. I think that will translate into a lot more passes.
In each of the last two years, the Falcons have averaged over 30 running plays per game. I think that’s gone. (If you want 30-35 rushing attempts, best to follow Arthur Smith to Pittsburgh, where he’ll be feeding lots of touches to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.)
In each of the last two years, there have been four offenses operating with coding from Sean McVay. The Rams themselves, of course, but with three of his former assistants running offenses in Minnesota (Kevin O’Connell), Seattle (Shane Waldron) and Cincinnati (Zac Taylor). Those three former assistants all ranked in the bottom 5 in rushing last year.
If we instead order offenses by fantasy production (using 6 points for rushing touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards), the offenses with DNA from the Rams have tended to post lesser numbers. Six of those eight offenses the last two years have averaged fewer than 100 rushing yards per game.
I’m not writing off Robinson just yet. He’ll be the starter, and he’ll also be catching passes. But I think the running game there will be worse rather than better.
RUSHING PRODUCTION, LAST TWO YEARS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Points |
2022 | Philadelphia | 544 | 2,509 | 4.6 | 32 | 442.9 |
2023 | Baltimore | 541 | 2,661 | 4.9 | 26 | 422.1 |
2022 | Chicago | 558 | 3,014 | 5.4 | 18 | 409.4 |
2023 | San Francisco | 499 | 2,389 | 4.8 | 27 | 400.9 |
2023 | Detroit | 500 | 2,311 | 4.6 | 27 | 393.1 |
2023 | Miami | 456 | 2,308 | 5.1 | 27 | 392.8 |
2022 | NY Giants | 520 | 2,519 | 4.8 | 21 | 377.9 |
2022 | Atlanta | 559 | 2,718 | 4.9 | 17 | 373.8 |
2022 | Dallas | 531 | 2,298 | 4.3 | 24 | 373.8 |
2022 | Cleveland | 532 | 2,490 | 4.7 | 19 | 363.0 |
2022 | Baltimore | 526 | 2,720 | 5.2 | 14 | 356.0 |
2022 | San Francisco | 504 | 2,360 | 4.7 | 20 | 356.0 |
2022 | Detroit | 480 | 2,179 | 4.5 | 23 | 355.9 |
2023 | Buffalo | 512 | 2,212 | 4.3 | 22 | 353.2 |
2023 | Philadelphia | 510 | 2,190 | 4.3 | 22 | 351.0 |
2023 | Arizona | 471 | 2,365 | 5.0 | 17 | 338.5 |
2023 | Chicago | 534 | 2,399 | 4.5 | 16 | 335.9 |
2023 | Indianapolis | 479 | 2,059 | 4.3 | 19 | 319.9 |
2022 | Carolina | 483 | 2,210 | 4.6 | 16 | 317.0 |
2022 | Buffalo | 430 | 2,232 | 5.2 | 15 | 313.2 |
2023 | • LA Rams | 477 | 2,045 | 4.3 | 18 | 312.5 |
2022 | Tennessee | 487 | 2,131 | 4.4 | 16 | 309.1 |
2022 | Jacksonville | 448 | 2,116 | 4.7 | 16 | 307.6 |
2022 | Kansas City | 417 | 1,970 | 4.7 | 18 | 305.0 |
2022 | Pittsburgh | 500 | 2,073 | 4.1 | 16 | 303.3 |
2023 | Atlanta | 522 | 2,159 | 4.1 | 14 | 299.9 |
2023 | Pittsburgh | 487 | 2,010 | 4.1 | 16 | 297.0 |
2023 | Cleveland | 518 | 2,017 | 3.9 | 15 | 291.7 |
2022 | Green Bay | 456 | 2,113 | 4.6 | 12 | 283.3 |
2023 | Tennessee | 444 | 1,846 | 4.2 | 16 | 280.6 |
2022 | Las Vegas | 428 | 2,059 | 4.8 | 12 | 277.9 |
2022 | Arizona | 434 | 1,873 | 4.3 | 15 | 277.3 |
2022 | • Seattle | 425 | 2,042 | 4.8 | 12 | 276.2 |
2023 | Dallas | 468 | 1,920 | 4.1 | 14 | 276.0 |
2022 | • Minnesota | 404 | 1,661 | 4.1 | 18 | 274.1 |
2022 | New Orleans | 465 | 1,982 | 4.3 | 12 | 270.2 |
2022 | Washington | 538 | 2,143 | 4.0 | 9 | 268.3 |
2023 | Jacksonville | 453 | 1,646 | 3.6 | 17 | 266.6 |
2022 | Denver | 444 | 1,935 | 4.4 | 11 | 259.5 |
2022 | • LA Rams | 411 | 1,661 | 4.0 | 15 | 256.1 |
2022 | New England | 425 | 1,812 | 4.3 | 12 | 253.2 |
2023 | New Orleans | 480 | 1,742 | 3.6 | 13 | 252.2 |
2023 | Green Bay | 441 | 1,905 | 4.3 | 10 | 250.5 |
2023 | NY Giants | 454 | 1,874 | 4.1 | 10 | 247.4 |
2022 | NY Jets | 405 | 1,686 | 4.2 | 13 | 246.6 |
2023 | Washington | 359 | 1,592 | 4.4 | 14 | 243.2 |
2022 | LA Chargers | 404 | 1,524 | 3.8 | 15 | 242.4 |
2022 | Miami | 390 | 1,686 | 4.3 | 12 | 240.6 |
2022 | • Cincinnati | 399 | 1,528 | 3.8 | 14 | 236.8 |
2022 | Indianapolis | 439 | 1,866 | 4.3 | 8 | 234.6 |
2023 | Kansas City | 417 | 1,784 | 4.3 | 9 | 232.4 |
2023 | LA Chargers | 431 | 1,642 | 3.8 | 11 | 230.2 |
2023 | Denver | 451 | 1,810 | 4.0 | 8 | 229.0 |
2023 | Houston | 444 | 1,647 | 3.7 | 10 | 224.7 |
2023 | • Cincinnati | 383 | 1,527 | 4.0 | 12 | 224.7 |
2023 | • Seattle | 382 | 1,580 | 4.1 | 11 | 224.0 |
2023 | Las Vegas | 413 | 1,542 | 3.7 | 11 | 220.2 |
2023 | Carolina | 445 | 1,769 | 4.0 | 7 | 218.9 |
2023 | New England | 415 | 1,627 | 3.9 | 9 | 216.7 |
2023 | NY Jets | 388 | 1,647 | 4.2 | 7 | 206.7 |
2023 | Tampa Bay | 439 | 1,509 | 3.4 | 8 | 198.9 |
2023 | • Minnesota | 393 | 1,553 | 4.0 | 7 | 197.3 |
2022 | Houston | 398 | 1,476 | 3.7 | 7 | 189.6 |
2022 | Tampa Bay | 386 | 1,308 | 3.4 | 5 | 160.8 |
—Ian Allan