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Factoid

Bijan Robinson

Falcons should be moving away from the running game

In Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons have one of the best one-two punches at tailback in the league. But I’m thinking the running game there will be dramatically scaled back.

The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal worth $180 million. They’re not spending that kind of money to use him in a game manager role. He’ll be slinging it.

And they’re bringing over Zac Robinson from the Rams to run the offense. I think that will translate into a lot more passes.

In each of the last two years, the Falcons have averaged over 30 running plays per game. I think that’s gone. (If you want 30-35 rushing attempts, best to follow Arthur Smith to Pittsburgh, where he’ll be feeding lots of touches to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.)

In each of the last two years, there have been four offenses operating with coding from Sean McVay. The Rams themselves, of course, but with three of his former assistants running offenses in Minnesota (Kevin O’Connell), Seattle (Shane Waldron) and Cincinnati (Zac Taylor). Those three former assistants all ranked in the bottom 5 in rushing last year.

If we instead order offenses by fantasy production (using 6 points for rushing touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards), the offenses with DNA from the Rams have tended to post lesser numbers. Six of those eight offenses the last two years have averaged fewer than 100 rushing yards per game.

I’m not writing off Robinson just yet. He’ll be the starter, and he’ll also be catching passes. But I think the running game there will be worse rather than better.

RUSHING PRODUCTION, LAST TWO YEARS
YearTeamAttYardsAvgTDPoints
2022Philadelphia5442,5094.632442.9
2023Baltimore5412,6614.926422.1
2022Chicago5583,0145.418409.4
2023San Francisco4992,3894.827400.9
2023Detroit5002,3114.627393.1
2023Miami4562,3085.127392.8
2022NY Giants5202,5194.821377.9
2022Atlanta5592,7184.917373.8
2022Dallas5312,2984.324373.8
2022Cleveland5322,4904.719363.0
2022Baltimore5262,7205.214356.0
2022San Francisco5042,3604.720356.0
2022Detroit4802,1794.523355.9
2023Buffalo5122,2124.322353.2
2023Philadelphia5102,1904.322351.0
2023Arizona4712,3655.017338.5
2023Chicago5342,3994.516335.9
2023Indianapolis4792,0594.319319.9
2022Carolina4832,2104.616317.0
2022Buffalo4302,2325.215313.2
2023• LA Rams4772,0454.318312.5
2022Tennessee4872,1314.416309.1
2022Jacksonville4482,1164.716307.6
2022Kansas City4171,9704.718305.0
2022Pittsburgh5002,0734.116303.3
2023Atlanta5222,1594.114299.9
2023Pittsburgh4872,0104.116297.0
2023Cleveland5182,0173.915291.7
2022Green Bay4562,1134.612283.3
2023Tennessee4441,8464.216280.6
2022Las Vegas4282,0594.812277.9
2022Arizona4341,8734.315277.3
2022• Seattle4252,0424.812276.2
2023Dallas4681,9204.114276.0
2022• Minnesota4041,6614.118274.1
2022New Orleans4651,9824.312270.2
2022Washington5382,1434.09268.3
2023Jacksonville4531,6463.617266.6
2022Denver4441,9354.411259.5
2022• LA Rams4111,6614.015256.1
2022New England4251,8124.312253.2
2023New Orleans4801,7423.613252.2
2023Green Bay4411,9054.310250.5
2023NY Giants4541,8744.110247.4
2022NY Jets4051,6864.213246.6
2023Washington3591,5924.414243.2
2022LA Chargers4041,5243.815242.4
2022Miami3901,6864.312240.6
2022• Cincinnati3991,5283.814236.8
2022Indianapolis4391,8664.38234.6
2023Kansas City4171,7844.39232.4
2023LA Chargers4311,6423.811230.2
2023Denver4511,8104.08229.0
2023Houston4441,6473.710224.7
2023• Cincinnati3831,5274.012224.7
2023• Seattle3821,5804.111224.0
2023Las Vegas4131,5423.711220.2
2023Carolina4451,7694.07218.9
2023New England4151,6273.99216.7
2023NY Jets3881,6474.27206.7
2023Tampa Bay4391,5093.48198.9
2023• Minnesota3931,5534.07197.3
2022Houston3981,4763.77189.6
2022Tampa Bay3861,3083.45160.8

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index