Follow-up to yesterday's article, where I proposed New England should think about taking the NFL Draft's top wide receiver rather than a quarterback at No. 3 overall. If I'm going to say that, it's reasonable to look at the recent hit rate wide receivers selected that early.
In the last 10 years, there have been 12 wide receivers selected in the top 10 picks of the draft. That's where Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. is certainly going, and probably LSU's Malik Nabers, too. Washington's Rome Odunze is another possibility, which would mark the seventh time in the last 30 years that three wide receivers have been drafted in the top 10. (Only once before have all three of those players hit, but at least it was the most recent occurrence: 2021's trio of JaMarr Chase, Jaylen Wadde and DeVonta Smith all look pretty good so far.)
Anyway, of those 12 wide receivers picked in the top 10 since 2014, nearly half (5) have at least one top-10 season (PPR scoring). Four others have at least a top-30 season, while another has multiple years among the 35 best wide receivers. Ten of the 12 have multiple top-40 fantasy seasons, which seems like a pretty strong track record.
Just two busts: John Ross, and Kevin White.
Table shows seasons from wide receivers drafted in the top 10 over the past decade, sorted by fantasy ranks.
| WIDE RECEIVERS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10 PICKS, 2014-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 7 | 2016 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 173 | 96 | 1321 | 12 | 304.1 | 3 |
| 5 | 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 7 | 2023 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 136 | 79 | 1255 | 13 | 282.5 | 7 |
| 6 | 2022 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 117 | 75 | 1356 | 8 | 261.2 | 8 |
| 10 | 2022 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 136 | 95 | 1196 | 7 | 256.6 | 9 |
| 7 | 2021 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 114 | 74 | 1035 | 14 | 262.5 | 9 |
| 7 | 2018 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 138 | 86 | 1524 | 9 | 292.4 | 9 |
| 4 | 2022 | Amari Cooper, Cle. | 132 | 78 | 1160 | 9 | 248.0 | 10 |
| 4 | 2019 | Amari Cooper, Dall. | 119 | 79 | 1189 | 8 | 246.5 | 10 |
| 5 | 2023 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 145 | 100 | 1216 | 7 | 262.7 | 11 |
| 5 | 2022 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 134 | 87 | 1046 | 9 | 246.4 | 11 |
| 6 | 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 7 | 2020 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 109 | 70 | 1006 | 13 | 248.6 | 13 |
| 7 | 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 122 | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 4 | 2020 | Amari Cooper, Dall. | 130 | 92 | 1114 | 5 | 236.8 | 15 |
| 4 | 2016 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 132 | 83 | 1153 | 5 | 232.3 | 15 |
| 7 | 2019 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 118 | 67 | 1157 | 8 | 232.7 | 15 |
| 7 | 2017 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 136 | 71 | 1001 | 5 | 203.1 | 17 |
| 7 | 2022 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 127 | 77 | 1124 | 6 | 225.4 | 18 |
| 4 | 2018 | Amari Cooper, 2TM | 107 | 75 | 1005 | 7 | 219.5 | 19 |
| 10 | 2023 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 112 | 81 | 1066 | 7 | 229.6 | 19 |
| 4 | 2023 | Amari Cooper, Cle. | 128 | 72 | 1250 | 5 | 229.0 | 20 |
| 4 | 2015 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 96 | 60 | 1047 | 9 | 218.8 | 20 |
| 4 | 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 130 | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 10 | 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 147 | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 217.7 | 21 |
| 7 | 2015 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 148 | 74 | 1206 | 3 | 212.6 | 22 |
| 10 | 2023 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 168 | 95 | 1042 | 3 | 217.2 | 26 |
| 4 | 2021 | Amari Cooper, Dall. | 104 | 68 | 865 | 8 | 202.5 | 27 |
| 4 | 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 128 | 65 | 982 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
| 8 | 2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 117 | 72 | 866 | 4 | 184.6 | 28 |
| 5 | 2020 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 92 | 65 | 984 | 5 | 193.4 | 29 |
| 5 | 2018 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 112 | 65 | 891 | 4 | 183.6 | 29 |
| 10 | 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 104 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
| 7 | 2022 | Mike Williams, LAC | 93 | 63 | 895 | 4 | 176.5 | 33 |
| 7 | 2018 | Mike Williams, LAC | 66 | 43 | 664 | 11 | 180.2 | 33 |
| 6 | 2023 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 72 | 1014 | 4 | 198.6 | 34 |
| 4 | 2017 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 96 | 48 | 680 | 7 | 158.4 | 36 |
| 8 | 2023 | Drake London, Atl. | 110 | 69 | 905 | 2 | 174.6 | 36 |
| 7 | 2019 | Mike Williams, LAC | 90 | 49 | 1001 | 2 | 161.3 | 41 |
| 4 | 2017 | Sammy Watkins, LAR | 70 | 39 | 593 | 8 | 146.3 | 41 |
| 7 | 2020 | Mike Williams, LAC | 85 | 48 | 756 | 5 | 153.7 | 48 |
| 4 | 2019 | Sammy Watkins, K.C. | 90 | 52 | 673 | 3 | 140.5 | 50 |
| 5 | 2019 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 69 | 43 | 601 | 2 | 115.1 | 64 |
| 4 | 2018 | Sammy Watkins, K.C. | 55 | 40 | 519 | 3 | 115.1 | 64 |
| 5 | 2021 | Corey Davis, NYJ | 59 | 34 | 492 | 4 | 107.2 | 69 |
| 9 | 2019 | John Ross, Cin. | 56 | 28 | 506 | 3 | 97.0 | 74 |
| 5 | 2022 | Corey Davis, NYJ | 64 | 32 | 536 | 2 | 97.6 | 76 |
| 5 | 2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 65 | 34 | 375 | 0 | 71.5 | 85 |
| 9 | 2018 | John Ross, Cin. | 58 | 21 | 210 | 7 | 84.9 | 86 |
| 4 | 2020 | Sammy Watkins, K.C. | 55 | 37 | 421 | 2 | 91.4 | 87 |
| 4 | 2016 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 52 | 28 | 430 | 2 | 83.0 | 91 |
| 4 | 2021 | Sammy Watkins, Balt. | 49 | 27 | 394 | 1 | 72.4 | 101 |
| 7 | 2023 | Mike Williams, LAC | 26 | 19 | 249 | 1 | 50.2 | 113 |
| 4 | 2022 | Sammy Watkins, 2TM | 27 | 16 | 325 | 0 | 48.5 | 119 |
| 7 | 2016 | Kevin White, Chi. | 36 | 19 | 187 | 0 | 38.6 | 123 |
| 9 | 2021 | John Ross, NYG | 20 | 11 | 224 | 1 | 41.0 | 129 |
| 7 | 2017 | Mike Williams, LAC | 23 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 20.5 | 139 |
| 7 | 2018 | Kevin White, Chi. | 8 | 4 | 92 | 0 | 13.2 | 164 |
| 7 | 2022 | Kevin White, N.O. | 5 | 2 | 74 | 0 | 9.4 | 172 |
| 7 | 2017 | Kevin White, Chi. | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 | 189 |
| 9 | 2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 199 |
| 7 | 2021 | Kevin White, N.O. | 5 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 4.8 | 201 |
| 9 | 2020 | John Ross, Cin. | 7 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 | 203 |
| 7 | 2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | 999 |
| 7 | 2020 | Kevin White, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | 999 |
This is not to contend that some players (beyond just Ross and White) selected that early haven't disappointed. The Titans were certainly hoping for more out of Corey Davis. Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins and Drake London (so far) would be considered slight disappointments, I think. They aren't all JaMarr Chase or Mike Evans.
But the likes of Troy Williamson, Reggie Williams and J.J. Stokes used to be more common. Pretty good hit rate on the position for players selected that early in recent years. Harrison, Nabers and Odunze might be top 10 picks in the draft, and top-5 picks in rookie drafts this summer. Maybe 1-2-3.
Final note, for those who'd rather look only at wide receivers selected in the top 3 picks overall (rather than top 10). There have been seven such players in the last 40 years.
Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson are in the Hall of Fame. Larry Fitzgerald is also a first ballot guy. Keyshawn Johnson and former Patriot Irving Fryar went to multiple Pro Bowls apiece. Braylon Edwards had one big season (1,289 yards and 16 TDs with Derek Anderson in 2007). Charles Rogers flopped. Pretty decent odds on wideouts selected that early, should Harrison go there.
--Andy Richardson