The Jaguars selected Tank Bigsby in the third round a year ago, and there was some hope (or speculation) he'd be a nice change-of-pace and short-yardage complement to Travis Etienne. That didn't happen, but Doug Pederson isn't giving up on him.
"We have to get him going, bottom line," Pederson says. Earlier, he had spoken of wanting to reduce Travis Etienne's workload some, and Bigsby emerging would be a way for that to happen.
Bigsby struggled as a rookie, there's no getting around that. His 50 carries went for just 132 yards, which is 2.6 per attempt. Not good. But a year 2 emergence can still happen.
Since 2000, there have 37 other rookie running backs who received at least 50 carries but averaged 3.5 yards per attempt or worse. That includes 10 guys under 3.0, like Bigsby, including another former Jaguar (Greg Jones).
Fifteen of those guys, including four of the sub-3.0 guys, came back and averaged at least 4.0 yards per attempt in their second seasons. Six of them were top-20 fantasy backs in PPR leagues.
Table shows all of those under-3.5 yards per attempt rookies, sorted by yards per carry in Year 2. (OOL = out of league)
| ROOKIE RBS AT OR UNDER 3.5 YPC, 2000-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | Att(2) | Yds(2) | Avg(2) | Rk |
| 2013 | Joseph Randle, Dall. | 54 | 164 | 3.0 | 51 | 343 | 6.7 | 74 |
| 2019 | Patrick Laird, Mia. | 62 | 168 | 2.7 | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 100 |
| 2018 | Chase Edmonds, Ari. | 60 | 208 | 3.5 | 60 | 303 | 5.1 | 56 |
| 2014 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 66 | 185 | 2.8 | 107 | 529 | 4.9 | 16 |
| 2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 178 | 626 | 3.5 | 237 | 1168 | 4.9 | 10 |
| 2018 | Ito Smith, Atl. | 90 | 315 | 3.5 | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 85 |
| 2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 244 | 860 | 3.5 | 290 | 1361 | 4.7 | 1 |
| 2015 | Matt Jones, Was. | 144 | 490 | 3.4 | 99 | 460 | 4.7 | 57 |
| 2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 171 | 555 | 3.3 | 84 | 390 | 4.6 | 43 |
| 2001 | James Jackson, Cle. | 195 | 554 | 2.8 | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 123 |
| 2001 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 213 | 729 | 3.4 | 325 | 1438 | 4.4 | 9 |
| 2022 | Zonovan Knight, NYJ | 85 | 300 | 3.5 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 155 |
| 2002 | Lamar Gordon, St.L. | 65 | 228 | 3.5 | 71 | 298 | 4.2 | 73 |
| 2008 | Tim Hightower, Ari. | 143 | 399 | 2.8 | 143 | 598 | 4.2 | 14 |
| 2017 | Samaje Perine, Was. | 175 | 603 | 3.5 | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 124 |
| 2015 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 184 | 641 | 3.5 | 254 | 997 | 3.9 | 7 |
| 2000 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 228 | 770 | 3.4 | 180 | 690 | 3.8 | 35 |
| 2014 | Alfred Blue, Hou. | 169 | 528 | 3.1 | 183 | 698 | 3.8 | 47 |
| 2004 | Greg Jones, Jac. | 62 | 162 | 2.6 | 151 | 575 | 3.8 | 50 |
| 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 174 | 612 | 3.5 | 79 | 299 | 3.8 | 50 |
| 2001 | Nick Goings, Car. | 66 | 197 | 3.0 | 50 | 188 | 3.8 | 77 |
| 2011 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 165 | 581 | 3.5 | 91 | 325 | 3.6 | 49 |
| 2007 | Brian Leonard, St.L. | 86 | 303 | 3.5 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 165 |
| 2013 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 70 | 242 | 3.5 | 134 | 463 | 3.5 | 34 |
| 2000 | J.R. Redmond, N.E. | 125 | 406 | 3.3 | 35 | 119 | 3.4 | 81 |
| 2000 | Thomas Jones, Ari. | 112 | 373 | 3.3 | 112 | 380 | 3.4 | 44 |
| 2000 | Frank Moreau, K.C. | 67 | 179 | 2.7 | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 125 |
| 2020 | Joshua Kelley, LAC | 111 | 354 | 3.2 | 33 | 102 | 3.1 | 112 |
| 2010 | Anthony Dixon, S.F. | 70 | 237 | 3.4 | 29 | 87 | 3.0 | 98 |
| 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 217 | 721 | 3.3 | 88 | 257 | 2.9 | 89 |
| 2002 | Jonathan Wells, Hou. | 197 | 529 | 2.7 | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 141 |
| 2016 | Dwayne Washington, Det. | 90 | 265 | 2.9 | 20 | 44 | 2.2 | 132 |
| 2005 | J.J. Arrington, Ari. | 112 | 370 | 3.3 | 14 | 19 | 1.4 | 96 |
| 2000 | Travis Prentice, Cle. | 173 | 512 | 3.0 | 14 | 13 | .9 | 112 |
| 2015 | David Cobb, Ten. | 52 | 146 | 2.8 | OOL | |||
| 2009 | Glen Coffee, S.F. | 83 | 226 | 2.7 | OOL | |||
| 2016 | Kenneth Farrow, S.D. | 60 | 192 | 3.2 | OOL | |||
| 2023 | Tank Bigsby, Jac. | 50 | 132 | 2.6 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
Also on Bigsby's behalf, it's not like the team's other running backs were dramatically better. Etienne averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt, while D'Ernest Johnson was down at 2.6 with Bigsby. Jacksonville re-signed Johnson last month, so Bigsby will need to do something in the preseason to even ensure he secures that No. 2 job.
But I'm willing to take a chance on him as the correct No. 2 in this ground game. Johnson was bad enough last year (41 carries for 108 yards) without the excuse of being a rookie finding his way that it's fair to wonder whether his previous success in Cleveland wasn't merely a product of being in a great rushing offense. The one-year contract he signed in March was a minimum deal; he's not even guaranteed to make the team. If I select Etienne (and even if I don't), Bigsby is worth a shot in a later round as a No. 2 with the potential to be useful in fantasy leagues (and even better if Etienne gets hurt).
--Andy Richardson