It's Bills and former Bills wide receiver week here, and I thought I'd take a look at Khalil Shakir. What are the chances he's poised for a Year 3 breakout? There are some encouraging signs.
First, there's the reality that Buffalo doesn't have much at wide receiver right now. There's Curtis Samuel, who I do have some interest in, but then a bunch of guys who haven't done anything notable elsewhere (Mack Hollins, KJ Hamler, Andy Isabella). And Shakir.
There's also the fact that Shakir finished strong. He caught 6 for 105 in the Week 18 win in Miami, then caught touchdowns in both playoff games, including a really remarkable one against Kansas City. Ten catches for 75 yards and those scores in the two contests. Buffalo's willingness to move on from Stefon Diggs is starting to look more reasonable.
Shakir was just a fifth-round pick in 2022, but he was impressively efficient with his opportunities last season. Most notably, he caught over 86 percent of the passes sent his way. That was the best catch rate by a first- or second-year wideout (minimum 40 targets) in the last 10 years. Pretty strong performance.
There have been 31 other wide receivers in the past decade to catch at least 70 percent of the passes thrown their way in one of their first two seasons. I thought I'd see how they fared one year later. There have been some success stories.
Table shows the 32 wideouts to reach that catch rate in one of their first two seasons since 2014. That includes three other players last year: another second-year guy, Wan'Dale Robinson, and a pair of rookies (Rashee Rice, also in the news lately, and Zay Flowers).
Of the other 28 guys, over a third (10) put up top 20 numbers in PPR leagues a year later. Eight of them ranked in the top 10 at the position. I'm not suggesting Shakir is headed for those kind of numbers, but a pretty nice success rate for guys who have shown some competency/efficiency in their offenses those first two seasons.
| HIGH CATCH RATE WIDEOUTS, ONE YEAR LATER (2014-2023) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Ctch | Next | Rk |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 69 | 53 | 550 | 10.4 | 4 | 76.8% | 78-1173-8 | 10 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 112 | 84 | 758 | 9.0 | 5 | 75.0% | 94-1136-4 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kenny Stills, N.O. | 83 | 63 | 931 | 14.8 | 3 | 75.9% | 27-440-3 | 82 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 14.3 | 12 | 70.0% | 101-1367-10 | 4 |
| 2014 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 44 | 31 | 242 | 7.8 | 3 | 70.5% | 52-473-10 | 27 |
| 2015 | Bryan Walters, Jac. | 45 | 32 | 368 | 11.5 | 1 | 71.1% | 24-231-2 | 103 |
| 2015 | Jamison Crowder, Was. | 78 | 59 | 604 | 10.2 | 2 | 75.6% | 66-789-3 | 32 |
| 2015 | Jeremy Butler, Balt. | 44 | 31 | 363 | 11.7 | 0 | 70.5% | 2-11-0 | 184 |
| 2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 51 | 664 | 13.0 | 8 | 73.9% | 45-555-3 | 56 |
| 2016 | Eli Rogers, Pitt. | 66 | 48 | 594 | 12.4 | 3 | 72.7% | 18-149-1 | 123 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 121 | 92 | 1137 | 12.4 | 9 | 76.0% | 125-1405-9 | 6 |
| 2016 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 112 | 84 | 903 | 10.8 | 3 | 75.0% | 64-849-8 | 19 |
| 2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 83 | 61 | 593 | 9.7 | 12 | 73.5% | 75-1183-8 | 8 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 79 | 58 | 917 | 15.8 | 8 | 73.4% | 42-552-3 | 63 |
| 2017 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 84 | 59 | 731 | 12.4 | 2 | 70.2% | 66-872-4 | 32 |
| 2017 | Trent Taylor, S.F. | 60 | 43 | 430 | 10.0 | 2 | 71.7% | 26-215-1 | 113 |
| 2018 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 55 | 40 | 566 | 14.2 | 6 | 72.7% | 94-1161-10 | 5 |
| 2018 | Ryan Switzer, Pitt. | 44 | 36 | 253 | 7.0 | 1 | 81.8% | 8-27-0 | 165 |
| 2019 | Greg Ward, Phil. | 40 | 28 | 254 | 9.1 | 1 | 70.0% | 7-95-3 | 134 |
| 2020 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 44 | 33 | 391 | 11.9 | 1 | 75.0% | 57-802-6 | 31 |
| 2020 | Hunter Renfrow, L.V. | 77 | 56 | 656 | 11.7 | 2 | 72.7% | 103-1038-9 | 10 |
| 2020 | Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 81 | 59 | 729 | 12.4 | 0 | 72.8% | 83-866-2 | 29 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1400 | 15.9 | 7 | 70.4% | 128-1809-9 | 1 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 79 | 58 | 600 | 10.3 | 5 | 73.4% | 27-272-2 | 95 |
| 2021 | Devin Duvernay, Balt. | 47 | 33 | 272 | 8.2 | 3 | 70.2% | 37-407-5 | 61 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 9.8 | 7 | 74.3% | 72-1014-4 | 34 |
| 2021 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 64 | 54 | 435 | 8.1 | 1 | 84.4% | 41-414-1 | 83 |
| 2022 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 146 | 106 | 1161 | 11.0 | 6 | 72.6% | 119-1515-10 | 3 |
| 2023 | Khalil Shakir, Buff. | 45 | 39 | 611 | 15.7 | 2 | 86.7% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 102 | 79 | 938 | 11.9 | 7 | 77.5% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 78 | 60 | 525 | 8.8 | 2 | 76.9% | ??? | ??? |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 108 | 77 | 858 | 11.1 | 6 | 71.3% | ??? | ??? |
It's early. Buffalo could still sign or draft someone who pushes ahead of Shakir this preseason. But considering his strong performance late last year, he's definitely on my radar for a 2024 sleeper.
--Andy Richardson